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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share
AFNfootballnerd send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:46:03 AM
Ive created a program last year that records every play on every team on a weekly basis...the numbers are then adjusted to the league average and calculated to give a percentage of who is playing well recently, rather than the overall season....

pretty basic right? anybody can watch football and see whos hot and whos not currently....but, the program also records every defensive play...fumbles, interceptions, sacks, defensive scores etc....for example the highest percentage defense my program ranked the bears last week at -32%. If u watched the bears last week they scored alot on defense. The program recorded all the defensive plays and calculated it to -32% which was the highest of all the defensive teams last week... The Negative % on defense is a good thing and on offense obviously u want a positive %

Based off the program we can tell its recording every play accurately on defense as well as offense but this is where i place wagers with more confidence....the calculations on offense is adjusted based of strength of the opponent...

For example chicago had a high defense percentage at -32% cuz of their performance last week but their offense percentage against Houston was -14%...again negative % is good for defense but offense u want positive %.

So looking at the bears and houston game chicago's yea their defense is stellar with the numbers but their offense at  -14% against Houston is horrible...in contrast to houstons offense calculated at 5% so givin those numbers i would have wagered on Houston which they covered tonight...

My monday night numbers have calculated Pitt offense at 7% vs KC at -29% which ill be wagering on Pitt -12.5

Not claiming this program is undefeated use money management


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#2
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:54:43 AM
sounds interesting...

but i'm guessing your program would have also had you laying DD with the Patriots and 49ers today...
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Posted: 11/12/2012 1:56:23 AM
GL
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Posted: 11/12/2012 1:58:28 AM
"For example chicago had a high defense percentage at -32% cuz of their performance last week but their offense percentage against Houston was -14%...again negative % is good for defense but offense u want positive %.

So looking at the bears and houston game chicago's yea their defense is stellar with the numbers but their offense at  -14% against Houston is horrible...in contrast to houstons offense calculated at 5% so givin those numbers i would have wagered on Houston which they covered tonight..."




ok... maybe i am not reading this right... but the way i interpret this, is that you are saying "Chicago's offensive rating numbers that were calculated USING THE GAME AGAINST HOUSTON were -14%... AGAINST HOUSTON!"... and based on THOSE NUMBERS... you would have wagered on HOUSTON to cover against Chicago...

is that correct?
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Posted: 11/12/2012 1:59:55 AM
to simplify... by using Chicago's offensive performance number against Houston (-14%)... your program would have "successfully predicted that Houston would cover against Chicago"... yes?
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#6
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:05:38 AM
I think he meant Tennessee not Houston...but anyway, are you saying you are betting solely based on the teams played last week? correct me if im wrong, but thats absolutely ridiculous.
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Posted: 11/12/2012 2:14:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mmeiselman731:

I think he meant Tennessee not Houston...



not so sure, because he said "-14% against Houston" twice... so i can't tell if it was a mistake... you're right, that using numbers just from last week is ridiculous... but using numbers from THIS week is even more ridiculous... so would be illuminating to clarify this...
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Posted: 11/12/2012 2:22:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mmeiselman731:

I think he meant Tennessee not Houston...but anyway, are you saying you are betting solely based on the teams played last week? correct me if im wrong, but thats absolutely ridiculous.


no not soley based off of last week...the program records every single NFL play and compares the team performance to a LEAGUE BASELINE...for example the league baseline for a runningback should be on avg 3.0 yards a run...games are broken down  soley situation in order to determine value over the league baseline (average)
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#9
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:33:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

sounds interesting...

but i'm guessing your program would have also had you laying DD with the Patriots and 49ers today...


No heres the interesting part of the program ive noticed any offense that is way over valued highest NE 32%, SF19%, Det 18% did not cover....
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#10
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:40:31 AM
so, you want the numbers to be in your favor, but not too much in your favor?

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#11
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:43:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:

"For example chicago had a high defense percentage at -32% cuz of their performance last week but their offense percentage against Houston was -14%...again negative % is good for defense but offense u want positive %.

So looking at the bears and houston game chicago's yea their defense is stellar with the numbers but their offense at  -14% against Houston is horrible...in contrast to houstons offense calculated at 5% so givin those numbers i would have wagered on Houston which they covered tonight..."




ok... maybe i am not reading this right... but the way i interpret this, is that you are saying "Chicago's offensive rating numbers that were calculated USING THE GAME AGAINST HOUSTON were -14%... AGAINST HOUSTON!"... and based on THOSE NUMBERS... you would have wagered on HOUSTON to cover against Chicago...

is that correct?


correct cuz every single play calculated up to this week compared to the NFL baseline avg... for chicago against Houston was -14%

This is where the program is important....anybody can follow and record stats....For example how important is 3 yards? Is forte's 3 yard runs on first down or are they for first down conversions....this program calculates those important stats and places a value against the league average and the opponent they are playing...
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#12
Posted: 11/12/2012 2:48:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SoundOfBrooklyn:

so, you want the numbers to be in your favor, but not too much in your favor?



Well....to that extent yea... but i dont want to break down every game and numbers of the day but program had NE 32% but Buffalo at 5% so buffalo at 5% showed their offense isnt total garbage and can score at least.....compared that too KC worst in the league at -29%
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#13
Posted: 11/12/2012 3:25:46 AM
care to share this program?
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#14
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:12:31 PM
Fine tuning this program to the point where im not gonna even look at double digit spreads....Ive noticed a trend with this program where its a crap shoot when spreads are that high...and its pretty obvious Ben went down on purpose cuz of him expecting a baby soon....ive seen way worse hits on been pretty obvious went down on purpose to call his wife and say its all set honey

Anyway on to TNF...

The numbers for Miami is -14% and Buffalo at 3% with the spread at -1.5 ill take Buffalo -1.5 at home with those numbers
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#15
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:34:19 PM
Good luck and look forward to see where this goes.
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#16
Posted: 11/13/2012 7:41:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Area51:

Good luck and look forward to see where this goes.


appreciate it....focusing on small spread lines to see if this program is consistent
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#17
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:00:37 PM
Good luck, man. I'm open-minded when it comes to statistical analysis as a handicapping tool. I'll be interested to see what happens. Is the system such that you could go back through previous scores, stats & pointspreads to test/evaluate accuracy, or do you need to wait for games to be played? I hope you'll keep posting the results; good, bad or indifferent- SOMETHING can be gleaned from the results. And just a word of warning; Ignore all the crazies. People will bash you if your picks lose or if they don't understand your system, and if you start winning @ a respectable rate, you'll be hounded by legions of desperate kiss ups begging for you to be their friend, for you to post more picks, or to post them earlier, etc.,etc. Just know that while you might not here from them as much, the VAST majority of people reading your posts make their own picks. They try to take in as much helpful information/ analysis as possible, but don't tail blindly. Keep us posted, B.O.L.! 
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#18
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:41:19 PM
leaning Buff. also
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Posted: 11/13/2012 10:23:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by c_had38:

Good luck, man. I'm open-minded when it comes to statistical analysis as a handicapping tool. I'll be interested to see what happens. Is the system such that you could go back through previous scores, stats & pointspreads to test/evaluate accuracy, or do you need to wait for games to be played? I hope you'll keep posting the results; good, bad or indifferent- SOMETHING can be gleaned from the results. And just a word of warning; Ignore all the crazies. People will bash you if your picks lose or if they don't understand your system, and if you start winning @ a respectable rate, you'll be hounded by legions of desperate kiss ups begging for you to be their friend, for you to post more picks, or to post them earlier, etc.,etc. Just know that while you might not here from them as much, the VAST majority of people reading your posts make their own picks. They try to take in as much helpful information/ analysis as possible, but don't tail blindly. Keep us posted, B.O.L.! 


  the numbers for this week look interesting....especially the GB Detroit game....the TNF play numbers look similar to Houston and Chicago game last week so hope it plays out the same
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#20
Posted: 11/15/2012 11:40:50 PM
interesting numbers as the -14% was fairly accurately as the fins had no offense the entire first half...looking good so far need to look at other numbers for this Sunday
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#21
Posted: 11/15/2012 11:57:55 PM
Narrowed down small line leans between packers lions, Tampa bay Carolina, and jets rams hmmm
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#22
Posted: 11/16/2012 1:39:29 AM
breaking down the numbers calculated on leans...

GB 22% @ Detroit at 19%

Interesting numbers with detroit getting +3 at home it looks as if Detroit can hang in a close game with a 2% margin the numbers are close....not gonna play this game but will keep an eye of the results if Detroit covers with such a close % margin it might be a handy trend to follow the program with those numbers

NYJ -20% @ St Louis -4.8%

Both really bad teams with both negatives on the calculations with the books pretty much using their own calculations to come up with the rams -3 at home...basically a crap shoot gonna pass on that garbage fest 

TB 8% @ Carolina -6.8%

TB on the road getting 8% vs a struggling carolina at -6.8% like those numbers with again a small line at TB -1 Gonna play TB -1 for 1 unit 
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#23
Posted: 11/16/2012 1:59:55 AM
I like this potential my friend!  
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#24
Posted: 11/16/2012 7:59:43 AM
Intersting numbers game. What do you have on the NO-Oak game ?
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#25
Posted: 11/16/2012 8:48:51 AM
interesting
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