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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: MNF 10/8/12 JETS vs TEXANS By RazorSharps ***POY***
Laroja
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#51
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:39:07 AM
250 units lolok
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#52
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:58:01 AM
Lets assume for a minute you are putting what 2500 on +9 and another 2500 on the ML and alternative line. The +9 is a ballsy enough bet so if it wins and they loose by 1 you win absolutely 0 money ? I have nothing against anyone on here and fact is it just could win and you have the last laugh on everyone but to cover the game and win nothing for it is just flat out stupid. Why not 350 +9   100 ML and 50 -3 ? Increase your odds at actually making money
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#53
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:58:44 AM
Did you write this up after smoking a bunch of crack....half ur bankroll on the jets right now....I guess thats why ur here
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#54
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:59:50 AM
how many times have we saw a game and thought... There is NO way this team wont cover or for the life of me this team will NOT loose SU. Think back to when the 49ers played Minny... No one thought for a second that minny could win SU, but they did... . Send houston home with their 1st L by 4pts
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#55
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:05:15 PM
And before you speak about bank roll  Iown a commercial bank bro. I "could" bet 10 k a game. But why would I risk my money on other guys performing ? I bet on me everyday and that works out fine. I bet $100-500 a game and you know what ? I found out I get just as mad when I loose 100 as I did when I would bet $2500. SO as you said its about picking winners then why talk about your bank roll because we all know those who claim to bet a lot dont. I hope you do win but if you do, it sbecause  other people performed. I played in college and from an x and o standpoint there is not one reason to bet on the Jets. One thing that I live by wagering is I'd rather loose betting on a good team. I will never bet a bd team again. Everyone had the Dolphins as a hot play Sunday but I didnt take it shame on me. But for every Dolphin bet there is someone who saw that Jacksonville line at -1 and assumed that was a hot play. Betting good teams will always win in the long run. I write a blog and for a few national papers in my free time. from and x and o standpoint. Nebraska and Northwestern this week
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#56
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:36:46 PM
Razor sir there are very few I respect on here and even fewer that I acknowledge my respect.   I will say I respect your opinions because your write ups usually make sense.  But this one does not.  Seriously maybe with the points Jets are the right play but the Jets quit last week at home.  They lost their 2 best play makers, and now face a better team.  I dont care what situational angle you see.  It will take a miracle for Jets to win this game.  For you to risk more than half your bankroll is just not right man.  Its not too late.  Be smart.  Dont be like that fool Prime......  Dude is bound to lose everything.
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#57
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:39:30 PM

Ston442

Minnesota is playing good football.  They have playmakers on both sides of the ball.  They are playing as a TEAM. 

None of the above apply to the Jets.  Goodluck.

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#58
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:40:55 PM
Same with Zona,  They have a steller defense and are playing Team football and thats why they beat the overrated Patriots.  Houston is best team in league and have phenominal playmakers on both sides.  Goodluck
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#59
Posted: 10/3/2012 1:51:49 PM

So you  have been around the bigs and vegas and you are so sure in your heart ?, and dont want to get into explaining your pick mathmatically because its boring? Then allow myself to explain it for ya because i find it very interesting that a guy who has been around the bigs and vegas would risk 53% of his bankroll on a team thats going to get rolled on the BIG MNF stage @ home in front of thier fans..in front of the world, whose going to watch that loud mouth fat behind coach go down in flames in front of the world for good.. once and for all.

- He that keeps his mouth keeps his life .But he that opens wide his lips( Rex ) shall have destrution .... Its ryan time man dont you see it.

___________________________________________

Houston has a pure points differential of a +67 thru 4 games (126-59) which means they are beating thier ave opp's power rating ( 17) by 16.7 pure points per game . That gives Houston a 33.7 season rating to date.

The Jets on the other hand have a ppd of - 60 thru 4 gms(43-102) which means they are losing to thier AOPR ( 20.5) by -14.75 pppg, This gives Jets a 5.9 season rating

33.7 - 5.9 = 27.8    (Houston by 28)

Ill break it down a little further. Houston's last 2 road games ppdiff. is a +28  (58-30) + 6pts for HFD (disadvantage)+34 or +17 pppg L2 away gm's: Houston's a.o.p.r last 2 rd gms: 17.5 > @ den. (21.5) and @ jack (14)  17.5 +17  giving Houston a 34.5 road rating L2 Rd gms.

Jets L2 home gms ppdiff. is a -38 (17-55) - 6 HFA  points -44 or -22 pppg @ home. Jets last 2 home opp's ave rating is 19.5  (SF 23.5 )and (Buff 15.5) . 19.5 - 22.5pppg gives the Jets a -2.5 rating for this game -->  THATS A -2.5. compared to Houstons 34.5 rating.Thats a 37point difference between these 2 teams. 

When the jets played buffalo in wk 1 they scored 31 points off of buffalos miscue's to win that gm 48-28. They havent had the luxury of doing that since and wont have the luxury of scoring any special teams etc points off turnovers on Houston in this game. If fitz didnt give them the game Jets score 17 points max.and give up 28 on defense.Jets are going to need more than that to even cover 9

I mean no disrespect to you my friend. However, a person who has been around the bigs and vegas, and who initially was going to ride Houston to the end but switched putting 53% of his bank on the jets..?..is not wize.

The numbers are there: 34-3 Houston

 

 

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#60
Posted: 10/3/2012 3:32:49 PM
Thanks for all the support fellas,  It means a ton to have it

As far as the Bankroll is concerned I dont get into the numbers as I said.  Just the Units.  And Yes I have been around many gamblers in Vegas, and ones who know what they are doing.  I learned a ton when I lived in Chicago for 3 years about what to look for and how to "press the line".

I wasnt trying to get into debates about my bankroll, as a real man does not let that information out to just anyone.  But it is a great deal of money. 

You guys point out about the way I chose to divvy up the units on this.  I feel the Jets will win the game SU.  I just dont know what the gap will be.  1? 2? 3?.....not sure.....I do know that the Jets are going to play this game tough, and they will catch a sleeping Texans team looking ahead to SNF where they host the Packers.  Huge Sandwhich. 

I want you guys to do something for me.  Go to the Mountains and corner  a Bobcat and walk towards it.  Your face will be gone in less than 3 seconds.  The Jets are a cornered beast right now is the analogy here.  The Texans are going to play against a team that is desperate.  The Jets will be all business on Monday night.
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#61
Posted: 10/3/2012 3:36:15 PM
like the angle...but if FF is on the JEts....fughettaboutit!

Jets are favored in week 6....
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#62
Posted: 10/3/2012 3:43:56 PM
I dont see jets getting blownout again this week....
Posted using a mobile device.
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#63
Posted: 10/3/2012 3:56:56 PM
GL razor ill be rootin for ya 
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#64
Posted: 10/3/2012 4:24:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RazorSharps:

Thanks for all the support fellas,  It means a ton to have it

As far as the Bankroll is concerned I dont get into the numbers as I said.  Just the Units.  And Yes I have been around many gamblers in Vegas, and ones who know what they are doing.  I learned a ton when I lived in Chicago for 3 years about what to look for and how to "press the line".

I wasnt trying to get into debates about my bankroll, as a real man does not let that information out to just anyone.  But it is a great deal of money. 

You guys point out about the way I chose to divvy up the units on this.  I feel the Jets will win the game SU.  I just dont know what the gap will be.  1? 2? 3?.....not sure.....I do know that the Jets are going to play this game tough, and they will catch a sleeping Texans team looking ahead to SNF where they host the Packers.  Huge Sandwhich. 

I want you guys to do something for me.  Go to the Mountains and corner  a Bobcat and walk towards it.  Your face will be gone in less than 3 seconds.  The Jets are a cornered beast right now is the analogy here.  The Texans are going to play against a team that is desperate.  The Jets will be all business on Monday night.


Good Luck

This game will be a no play for me. For a side bet for fantasy I would like to see the Jets stuff the Texans and Foster and Johnson struggle. I also signed Schillens, so hopefully he does something.

I would be afraid to wager this big on a team like the Jets. I see your analogy, but I dont see how the Jets can be compared to a Bobcat

A Bobcat is naturally a really tough animal...and in this league I would compare teams such as SF and Houston the toughest in the league right now.

Playing a team that was tough when they are desperate would be a place anyone would struggle.

I see the Jets more as a house cat.  Just lost its long range attack-ability with Holmes out, and very unsure if it want to attack with its left or right (Sanchez or Tebow)

A cat that just got its behind kicked.  I agree they will come out fighting like hell...and I really do hope they kick Houston's behind, but I dont see in anyway the Jets being a powerhouse team that is going to definitely play well just because they are desperate.

I definitely hope you are more-right then me. Go Jets
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#65
Posted: 10/3/2012 4:25:43 PM
Best of luck RazorSharps, i really like the play, and while a lot of ppl dont understand, you make a lot of sense in your write up.

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#66
Posted: 10/3/2012 4:35:09 PM
Gl op but I think this is poor br management on just one game.  You are taking a big risk when you are playing that much of your bankroll on one play.
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#67
Posted: 10/3/2012 4:35:11 PM

At the beginning of the year, I had the Jets as a 6 win team. Now, without Holmes or Revis, this is going to get ugly, and quickly.

I have no idea why you're so high on them to cover and win outright.

BOL. But I don't see how the Texans blow this one, even if they play at 70% of what they're capable.

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#68
Posted: 10/3/2012 4:46:33 PM
Hey Razor!....As a 40 year vet and having been on both sides of wagering, I can see where your pick is coming from and some of your logic....However, I am going to disagree with you....I believe that this will be the "coming out" party for Houston on national TV....In short, the set up looks good with the nice points and at home, BUT in this situation, in my opinion, "a team with a pathetic QB, plus  in disarray after injury losses and pathetic performances," WILL GET BLUDGEONED by an upstart, far more talented and cohesive team.....The Texans have another week or two after the Jets till they lose.,....BUT NOT MONDAY!....Good luck razor!
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#69
Posted: 10/3/2012 4:50:23 PM
i have followed all your plays until now.....but i can't do this.....

 Razor
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#70
Posted: 10/3/2012 4:55:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RazorSharps:

Thanks for all the support fellas,  It means a ton to have it

As far as the Bankroll is concerned I dont get into the numbers as I said.  Just the Units.  And Yes I have been around many gamblers in Vegas, and ones who know what they are doing.  I learned a ton when I lived in Chicago for 3 years about what to look for and how to "press the line".

I wasnt trying to get into debates about my bankroll, as a real man does not let that information out to just anyone.  But it is a great deal of money. 

You guys point out about the way I chose to divvy up the units on this.  I feel the Jets will win the game SU.  I just dont know what the gap will be.  1? 2? 3?.....not sure.....I do know that the Jets are going to play this game tough, and they will catch a sleeping Texans team looking ahead to SNF where they host the Packers.  Huge Sandwhich. 

I want you guys to do something for me.  Go to the Mountains and corner  a Bobcat and walk towards it.  Your face will be gone in less than 3 seconds.  The Jets are a cornered beast right now is the analogy here.  The Texans are going to play against a team that is desperate.  The Jets will be all business on Monday night.


Razor, you dont need to explain to anyone why you are making a play & for what reasons. If they want to follow, good for them, if not, hopefully they fade you & lose..........if my 3 team teaser is still alive going into this game, I will hedge it with the Jets plus the points for half my original teaser bet as I do think the Jets have a good chance of covering................the SU ML play is a different story. The Cards beat the Pats this season which means anything is possible.......................


...................................




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#71
Posted: 10/3/2012 5:32:00 PM
only thing that sucks about this thread is I like reading your posts and Im worried that if the Jets get destroyed you wont be back on the site for awhile. lol 

All I got to say is if your wrong (and I hope that your not) you better come back on either way and either talk smack to anyone that disagreed OR own up to being wrong.  Cause I wanna keep you around man lol
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#72
Posted: 10/3/2012 5:48:25 PM
Just an interesting angle that makes you think a bit, Vegas had this line set at Hou -1 on july 4th...
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#73
Posted: 10/3/2012 5:58:34 PM

i think it is very risky to play jets ml

Holmes is going to be out for the season

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#74
Posted: 10/3/2012 5:59:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RazorSharps:

Thanks for all the support fellas,  It means a ton to have it

As far as the Bankroll is concerned I dont get into the numbers as I said.  Just the Units.  And Yes I have been around many gamblers in Vegas, and ones who know what they are doing.  I learned a ton when I lived in Chicago for 3 years about what to look for and how to "press the line".

I wasnt trying to get into debates about my bankroll, as a real man does not let that information out to just anyone.  But it is a great deal of money. 

You guys point out about the way I chose to divvy up the units on this.  I feel the Jets will win the game SU.  I just dont know what the gap will be.  1? 2? 3?.....not sure.....I do know that the Jets are going to play this game tough, and they will catch a sleeping Texans team looking ahead to SNF where they host the Packers.  Huge Sandwhich. 

I want you guys to do something for me.  Go to the Mountains and corner  a Bobcat and walk towards it.  Your face will be gone in less than 3 seconds.  The Jets are a cornered beast right now is the analogy here.  The Texans are going to play against a team that is desperate.  The Jets will be all business on Monday night.

The only problem with this analogy is the Texans will most likely be bringing a few rifles along with them.  

GL with the play though.  It's definitely a bold one.
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#75
Posted: 10/3/2012 6:04:06 PM

This stat may help....

V. Play ON the MNF HD off a Loss of 15> pts!   18-7 =72%

     if the RF off a W of 15>!                               18-2 = 90%

    Jets+ fit the 90% pick!!!

    Ya better have big ones to bet the Jets.....

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