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[NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Preseason Week 1 leans/thoughts |
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SwishSwish1234 |
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#1 Posted: 8/1/2012 10:34:25 AM
Chicago v Denver Broncos, Broncos 1st half ML (When it comes out), I will only lock this one if I can get confirmation that Manning wont do what he did in Indianapolis, Which was play the first set and that was it. I expect Manning to play at least a full QB barring any major sack issues, If that happens to be the case I expect at least 10/14 points from the Broncos under Manning and even if he sits Hanie is a better back up than what the Bears have plus Cutler should only go 1/2 sets at best.
Miami Dolphins -2.5 v Tampa Bay, Another situation where I will play on the team with QB competition then a side where the starter is more or less chosen. Matt Moore knows he has Garrard and Tannehill breathing down his neck so I expect him to be on his game early and then Garrard and Tannehill are better than the Bucs back ups.
Detroit v Cleveland Over 36, Cleveland has 3 QB's that will be able to move the ball on this Detroit defense, Weeden and Mccoy will be fighting for the starting job and Seneca Wallace is not a bad guy to be running the offense in the 3rd quarter. Matthew Stafford should play 2/3 sets which means at least 7/10 points, Then you have Kellen Moore who will be looking to impress and then Shaun Hill who will be looking to impress for that back up QB position, I see 40-45 points in this game.
Seattle v Tennessee Over 17 first half (I'm guessing it will be that since the total is 34), Matt Flynn and Jake Locker first 3 sets, Tavaris Jackson/Russell Wilson and Matt Hasselbeck for the next quarter through to the end of the first half, I just dont see how 1 of these teams does not score 2 td's by then. 
A bad team with QB competition tends to beat a team with no QB competition that made the play offs last year, That's how preseason works.
Peyton Manning used to be a fade during the preseason but not this year simply because he needs more time on the field to get to know his receivers.
Any opinions guys?
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vegasflyer1 |
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#2 Posted: 8/1/2012 12:04:44 PM |
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SwishSwish1234 |
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#3 Posted: 8/1/2012 12:17:36 PM  |
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mtbaker |
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#4 Posted: 8/1/2012 1:41:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:
Chicago v Denver Broncos, Broncos 1st half ML (When it comes out), I will only lock this one if I can get confirmation that Manning wont do what he did in Indianapolis, Which was play the first set and that was it. I expect Manning to play at least a full QB barring any major sack issues, If that happens to be the case I expect at least 10/14 points from the Broncos under Manning and even if he sits Hanie is a better back up than what the Bears have plus Cutler should only go 1/2 sets at best.
Peyton Manning used to be a fade during the preseason but not this year simply because he needs more time on the field to get to know his receivers.
Any opinions guys?
I don't the Broncos are gonna giving Manning a ton of reps here in Chicago. I think Manning will ultimately be ready for week 1 of the regular but they will be extremely cautious here and they won't have much urgency for a win.
Bears have Cutler and Marshall who don't like Denver and most importantly Jason Campbell as the main backup. Campbell and McCown are way better than the Broncos two backups and with a lot of new faces I think they put on a show here to get last year's disappointing finish out of their system. |
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#5 Posted: 8/1/2012 1:45:52 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by vegasflyer1:
another factor working for Denver is Hanie will want to do well against his former team, so there is some added motivation if Manning only plays a quarter. The first half bet does look good. Denver's line wasn't very good last year if you consider how many times Tebow had to scramble out and it's probably the weakest line Manning has been behind since he broke out as a rookie. Chicago's line was no bargain last year either.
I don't think Hanie is pissed with Chicago they put their confidence in him and he lost them 4 games in the chance for the playoff push playing like dogshit in all of the games.
If anything the Bears players will be pissed off with this guy for ruining a great run they were on right before Cutler got hurt. McCown will want to out-do Hanie to show he's the better QB and should have got the nod after Cutler went down last year. Jason Campbell is a solid starting QB and as a backup that's a huge plus in preseason. Cutler looks focused and the Bears have a lot of focus and hooplar about their expected success so I expect their greater depth and new faces will want to get the season off with a bang. |
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#6 Posted: 8/1/2012 1:52:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:
Miami Dolphins -2.5 v Tampa Bay, Another situation where I will play on the team with QB competition then a side where the starter is more or less chosen. Matt Moore knows he has Garrard and Tannehill breathing down his neck so I expect him to be on his game early and then Garrard and Tannehill are better than the Bucs back ups.
Seattle v Tennessee Over 17 first half (I'm guessing it will be that since the total is 34), Matt Flynn and Jake Locker first 3 sets, Tavaris Jackson/Russell Wilson and Matt Hasselbeck for the next quarter through to the end of the first half, I just dont see how 1 of these teams does not score 2 td's by then.
I like your Seattle Over. I agree that there is a ton of firepower at QB with both teams having QB controversies with quarterbacks that can throw and run. Also the defenses probably won't be at full throttle in the 1st game.
Not sure I like the Phins. The Bucs pretty much gave up to end the season last year. This was well noted throughout the League and I think the players are excited for a fresh start and want to bust their behind in this first game for their new head coach. The Bucs are a young team with a lot of talent and I expect them to bring it here. The Phins don't have the best youngsters and the crowd's gonna suck so I think the Bucs bring the energy here.
I haven't really capped these games and don't even know if I will but these are some thoughts that popped into my head when I saw some of these games. I'm interested in the Eagles as well, I think the Steelers finally saw how age got to them last year and I really think they'll be more cautious in preseason this year.
Nice write-ups, good discussion, BOL man |
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GunShard |
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#7 Posted: 8/1/2012 2:03:28 PM I would wait for Week 1.
Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid. |
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SwishSwish1234 |
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#8 Posted: 8/1/2012 2:39:10 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by GunShard: I would wait for Week 1.
Never bet on preseason games on any sport. Predicting a 2nd string and 3rd string team is stupid.
See that's the thing, I'm not betting on the preseason thinking team a is way better than team b so they should still beat them despite it being preseason. I've always bet on preseason and done pretty well, I've struggled with the totals in preseason but been pretty good with sides. I honestly think preseason betting is a lot simpler than people make it out to be, If you can set aside a small bankroll strictly for preseason, That way if you lose you lose, If you win it gives you a lot of momentum going into the regular season.
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#9 Posted: 8/1/2012 2:43:55 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mtbaker:
I don't the Broncos are gonna giving Manning a ton of reps here in Chicago. I think Manning will ultimately be ready for week 1 of the regular but they will be extremely cautious here and they won't have much urgency for a win.
Bears have Cutler and Marshall who don't like Denver and most importantly Jason Campbell as the main backup. Campbell and McCown are way better than the Broncos two backups and with a lot of new faces I think they put on a show here to get last year's disappointing finish out of their system.
I agree to some extent and that's the reason why I'm only betting on the Broncos ML first half, Simply because Manning should get the 1st quarter and maybe more if they feel necessary but I doubt it, That leaves Caleb Hanie holding down the fort for the 2nd quarter, Hanie will know about the Bears defensive strengths so I'm counting on him not to do anything stupid which is hopefully all we will require. |
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#10 Posted: 8/1/2012 2:48:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mtbaker:
I like your Seattle Over. I agree that there is a ton of firepower at QB with both teams having QB controversies with quarterbacks that can throw and run. Also the defenses probably won't be at full throttle in the 1st game.
Not sure I like the Phins. The Bucs pretty much gave up to end the season last year. This was well noted throughout the League and I think the players are excited for a fresh start and want to bust their behind in this first game for their new head coach. The Bucs are a young team with a lot of talent and I expect them to bring it here. The Phins don't have the best youngsters and the crowd's gonna suck so I think the Bucs bring the energy here.
I haven't really capped these games and don't even know if I will but these are some thoughts that popped into my head when I saw some of these games. I'm interested in the Eagles as well, I think the Steelers finally saw how age got to them last year and I really think they'll be more cautious in preseason this year.
Nice write-ups, good discussion, BOL man
Their QB situation is tailor made for a preseason bet imo.
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#11 Posted: 8/1/2012 11:17:28 PM |
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SwishSwish1234 |
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#12 Posted: 8/2/2012 7:18:30 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by NFLLIFE:
SwishSwish1234 the det cle matchup had me reaching for my wallet. I always look for teams with decent 2nd and possibly 3rd string qbs. I also love it more if they have a qb competition. NE never disappoints in preseason overs. Belichick can be a punk at times but i respect the hell out of him. good post!!!
Yeah that's true but I would wait til week 2 or week 3 for that because it's not guaranteed he will be showcasing the playbook this early on. Brady 1st quarter, Hoyer 2nd quarter is a nice situation for betting the over especially if the opponent has a decent 1st/2nd string qb situation as well, Also the most a first half total will touch is maybe 20 points, Tons of value.
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#13 Posted: 8/2/2012 7:20:28 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:
Yeah that's true but I would wait til week 2 or week 3 for that because it's not guaranteed he will be showcasing the playbook this early on. Brady 1st quarter, Hoyer 2nd quarter is a nice situation for betting the over especially if the opponent has a decent 1st/2nd string qb situation as well, Also the most a first half total will touch is maybe 20 points, Tons of value.
**In preseason |
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#14 Posted: 8/2/2012 11:12:10 AM  |
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SwishSwish1234 |
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#15 Posted: 8/3/2012 12:21:15 PM
Week 2 New England v Philadelphia Over First Half, The game will be on ESPN which always increases the chances of points but more importantly week 2 will in essence be week 3 for the Eagles and the Browns as they meet each other in week 3 of the preseason and therefore will have to give their starters a run out in week 2 instead of week 3 simply because you dont want to give the team you're facing in the regular season opener any details of what you may be running against them in that game. A play on the under in that week 3 preseason game between the Eagles v Browns will also be looked at but I'd assume the total will be 32/31 so there might not be much value. The other reasons are Hoyer and Mallett are good enough QB's to get 10/14 points themselves plus BB will not want to be shut out despite it being only a preseason game.
Week 3 Cincinnati v Green Bay, Green Bay First Half or 1st Q, I think this maybe an absolute gift, Had this game been at Lambeau we may of had to lay a huge number even in preseason so the fact that they're on the road brings a lot of value for the Packers. I'd assume the full game spread will be -5.5 and that would mean the first half spread would have to be -3/3.5. I dont care if the Bengals play their starters anytime I can get Green Bay at -3 with a fully focused Rodgers I will bet that number every day of the week.
Cleveland v Philadelphia Under, I mentioned this in the first play write up, I just dont see either team running anything other than a vanilla game plan, Maybe the Eagles back ups beat up on the Browns I dont know but if the total is in the 32/33 I will be betting the under barring Andy Reid or Shurmur playing his starters of course, Which would make no sense but you never know.
Tampa Bay v New England, New England First Half or 1st Q, Very similar situation to the Packers v Bengals game and hopefully I can get the Patriots -2.5/3 1st half or -1.5 1st q here as well which would result in a no brainer pick. I'm not a believer in preseason traps, The only time a preseason trap can occur is when a public fave is being bet big despite the team stating they wont let their starters play for more than a quarter.
New Orleans v Houston Over First Half, Week 3 of the preason means Schaub and Brees will get a good chunk of the first half and with the highest preseason total I've seen being 44/45 that would mean worst case scenario we would need 24 points to win this first half over bet, I'm pretty confident that will happen.
Denver v San Francisco, Denver First Half, The spread on this game should be -3.5/4 which would mean the first half spread will be -2.5, Hopefully by week 3 Manning will have got in tune with Decker, Thomas etc and hopefully Manning can put 20+ points up by half time which will be more than enough against the 49ers.
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dcgmt |
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#16 Posted: 8/3/2012 2:01:43 PM  |
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#17 Posted: 8/3/2012 2:22:00 PM I wouldn't expect Manning to see more than 2 possesions if that. So you're counting on him to drive the team twice for scores huh. Don't over estimate his effectiveness under these circumstances.
gl  |
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#18 Posted: 8/3/2012 2:29:57 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mischkin04: I wouldn't expect Manning to see more than 2 possesions if that. So you're counting on him to drive the team twice for scores huh. Don't over estimate his effectiveness under these circumstances.
gl
You're talking about the week 1 game @ the Bears right?? At the moment everything's a lean till I get some type of confirmation on what amount of time Manning will play but common sense tells me Manning will play a quarter in the week 1 match up, 3/4 drives, the week 2 game a quarter, and the week 3 game the first half at least and then 1/2 drives at best for the week 4 game.
The Manning situation is very unique, You could argue Brett Favre was in his shoes a few years ago but Favre is not the perfectionist Manning is, Manning is the first guy at practice last guy out, I know he will want to play a good chunk of the preseason games in order to get in rhythm with Decker and Thomas etc. |
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#19 Posted: 8/3/2012 2:30:00 PM  |
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#20 Posted: 8/3/2012 2:31:51 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by dcgmt: gl Swish
Thanks dcgmt |
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#21 Posted: 8/3/2012 2:32:30 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mischkin04: Who set these schedules anyway? Eagles travel to Cleveland twice in 16 days.
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mischkin04 |
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#22 Posted: 8/3/2012 2:56:43 PM "You're talking about the week 1 game @ the Bears right?? At the moment everything's a lean till I get some type of confirmation on what amount of time Manning will play but common sense tells me Manning will play a quarter in the week 1 match up, 3/4 drives, the week 2 game a quarter, and the week 3 game the first half at least and then 1/2 drives at best for the week 4 game.
The Manning situation is very unique, You could argue Brett Favre was in his shoes a few years ago but Favre is not the perfectionist Manning is, Manning is the first guy at practice last guy out, I know he will want to play a good chunk of the preseason games in order to get in rhythm with Decker and Thomas etc."
He could go a quarter only if 2 drives takes up 15 minutes. I'm believing the Broncs won't risk their livelihood by having him on the field for more than a few plays vs. da Bears. In his initial game back, 3-4 series is not realistic.
Yes, this is definitely unique, but Manning was notorious for playing little in preseason and still being ready for games that count. |
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#23 Posted: 8/3/2012 3:16:28 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mischkin04: "You're talking about the week 1 game @ the Bears right?? At the moment everything's a lean till I get some type of confirmation on what amount of time Manning will play but common sense tells me Manning will play a quarter in the week 1 match up, 3/4 drives, the week 2 game a quarter, and the week 3 game the first half at least and then 1/2 drives at best for the week 4 game.
The Manning situation is very unique, You could argue Brett Favre was in his shoes a few years ago but Favre is not the perfectionist Manning is, Manning is the first guy at practice last guy out, I know he will want to play a good chunk of the preseason games in order to get in rhythm with Decker and Thomas etc."
He could go a quarter only if 2 drives takes up 15 minutes. I'm believing the Broncs won't risk their livelihood by having him on the field for more than a few plays vs. da Bears. In his initial game back, 3-4 series is not realistic.
Yes, this is definitely unique, but Manning was notorious for playing little in preseason and still being ready for games that count.
That was when he knew his receivers inside out  |
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#24 Posted: 8/3/2012 3:54:02 PM "That was when he knew his receivers inside out "
Figured you'd come back with that and a good point. Won't be long until we know if they will thrust him into the preseason or ease him in.
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#25 Posted: 8/6/2012 10:39:33 AM
I am locking in this play however:-
Miami -2.5 v Tampa Bay, I just heard this morning on NFL network that Garrard has looked good in camp and in essence is the front runner for the job, Tannehill has looked good also they said and Matt Moore will have to be on his game otherwise he could be cut. Besides the competition at the QB position for Miami this play is also being locked in because the Bucs have a starting QB, And he will go 2 drives at best not that Freeman scares me but after him we have Orlovsky and Brett Ratliff, Give me the hungry home team over the side who has a starting QB in place and 2 very average back ups.
I'm risking £220 to win £200, This is a max bet for me when it comes to preseason, A normal bet for preseason will be £110. |
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