Posted: 1/15/2008 4:06:08 PM
Originally Posted by nobrainer
ever play blackjack? if you got a 21 and the dealer has an Ace, are you bowing out with the insurance or did you come to Gamble? if $50 is a small play for you, ride it...if it were $500 or $5000, hell, i'm taking even money...but that's just me...
This thread is almost a year old but I'm going to respond anyway.
First, a reminder of blackjack insurance. Every blackjack book will all tell you the same thing - insurance is almost NEVER a good bet.
"Insurance" is really a misnomer. You're not actually "insuring" anything. Insurance is just a side bet, at 2-1 odds, that the dealer has an ten in the hole. Since the odds are almost always greater than 2-1, it makes taking this insurance side bet a bad bet.
(I said "almost never a good bet" because yes, it is possible that the current deck composition does contain a ratio of non-tens to tens that is less than 2 to 1.)
Using this same principal, the only time you should "hedge" a parlay bet or a future bet is if you believe this second bet you're making is plus EV... meaning it has a positive evaluation to it. Otherwise, you're costing yourself money in the long run, just like "taking insurance" which will guarantee yourself a profit on this blackjack hand" also costs you money in the long run.
The author of the wizard of odds website mentions he never hedges for this same reason, with one exception... if the amount in question is "lifestyle changing" money. So if you have a million dollar bet pending (for example) and you can hedge your bet and guarantee yourself a $500,000 profit and if that amount of money will change your life, then go ahead and hedge.