parlay helpp

Forum: Props & Futures
Author: [Props & Futures] Topic: parlay helpp
nickdomzz PM nickdomzz
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Posted: 2/18/2007 6:25:16 PM
I HAVE A  PARLAY RISKING 50 TO WIN 275 AND I HIT THE FIRST 2 ALREADY AND OVER 255 IS PENDING NOW FOR THE LAST LEG OF THE PARLAY. SHOULD I HEDGE IT OR WHAT?? AND IF I DO FOR HOW MUCH?? HELP WOULD BE REALLY APPRECIATED THANK YOU

the_ville20 PM the_ville20
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Posted: 2/18/2007 6:27:55 PM
I never understood this parlay help.  Did you wake up today and start gambling? 
 
You have 2 choices, both of which are YOURS b/c it YOUR money and we could care less.
 
1.  Bet 100 on the under and youll have a profit
 
2.  Ride the guy out
 
What is so hard about people thinking about "do I hedge, do I not.."  It's your money bro, Either take the guarentee or take a risk...
nickdomzz PM nickdomzz
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Posted: 2/18/2007 6:31:15 PM
jesus bro just a question calmmm downn
shenanigans14 PM shenanigans14
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Posted: 2/18/2007 6:32:31 PM
way to sum it up ville.......
nobrainer PM nobrainer
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Posted: 2/18/2007 6:36:12 PM
ever play blackjack? if you got a 21 and the dealer has an Ace, are you bowing out with the insurance or did you come to Gamble? if $50 is a small play for you, ride it...if it were $500 or $5000, hell, i'm taking even money...but that's just me...
aceduece12 PM aceduece12
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Posted: 2/18/2007 6:59:16 PM
nice call vill...
your a gambler..right?   "ride the fu**er out"...well put vill
daLOCKSMITH PM daLOCKSMITH
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Posted: 2/18/2007 7:15:12 PM
unotlikeme PM unotlikeme
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Posted: 2/18/2007 7:19:11 PM
Well you obviously bet 50 bucks on the parlay because you can afford to lose the 50 bucks hopefully, so the decsion is up to you. You put the over 255 in that parlay for a reason, and that is because you thought it would hit. If you hedge and win the parlay you will feel dumb for hedging and if you hedge and lose the parlay you will feel like a genius, either you make the call.  Personally I would not hedge and enjoy the Allstar game.  Consider it being 50 bucks you paid to watch the game if it loses
frankrock PM frankrock
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Posted: 2/18/2007 7:21:19 PM
Personally if I can guarantee myself money then that is what I do. I would bet $150 on the under which would guarantee me a $100.00 pay off. As far as those who say it is not enough money to worry about hedging why would you not guarantee youself $100.00 when you were originally only willing to bet $50  dollars. Taht would be like saying if you had an initial bet of $500 you would not hedge to guarantee $1000.00 you are out of your mind. Bottom line is it is about money management. One of my units is worth $500 everytime i place a bet and I would hedge for a guaranteed $100 payoff.
nobrainer PM nobrainer
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Posted: 2/18/2007 7:42:39 PM
once had a 10-team money line college basketball parlay, all heavy home faves...a dime was gonna pickup about 1800...first 11 hit...the last one was a 6-1 fave...all they gotta do is win, right?...
 
hedged the dog for 3 bucks, the dog hit, cleared 800...it wasnt the 1800 i'd hoped for, but it wasnt a $1000 loss either...now, if you'd backed it up with $50 on each of your 3 plays, you'd now be risking $5 to win $425...now what??
 
good luck to you my brother... 
nobrainer PM nobrainer
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Posted: 2/18/2007 7:45:40 PM
"first 11 hit" ...meant first 9 hit...hell, couldve been a 12-teamer. cant remember.. 
Ed-Collins PM Ed-Collins
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Posted: 1/15/2008 4:06:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nobrainer:

ever play blackjack? if you got a 21 and the dealer has an Ace, are you bowing out with the insurance or did you come to Gamble? if $50 is a small play for you, ride it...if it were $500 or $5000, hell, i'm taking even money...but that's just me...



This thread is almost a year old but I'm going to respond anyway.

First, a reminder of blackjack insurance.  Every blackjack book will all tell you the same thing - insurance is almost NEVER a good bet. 

"Insurance" is really a misnomer.  You're not actually "insuring" anything.  Insurance is just a side bet, at 2-1 odds, that the dealer has an ten in the hole.  Since the odds are almost always greater than 2-1, it makes taking this insurance side bet a bad bet.

(I said "almost never a good bet" because yes, it is possible that the current deck composition does contain a ratio of non-tens to tens that is less than 2 to 1.)

Using this same principal, the only time you should "hedge" a parlay bet or a future bet is if you believe this second bet you're making is plus EV... meaning it has a positive evaluation to it.  Otherwise, you're costing yourself money in the long run, just like "taking insurance" which will guarantee yourself a profit on this blackjack hand" also costs you money in the long run.

The author of the wizard of odds website mentions he never hedges for this same reason, with one exception... if the amount in question is "lifestyle changing" money.  So if you have a million dollar bet pending (for example) and you can hedge your bet and guarantee yourself a $500,000 profit and if that amount of money will change your life, then go ahead and hedge.

KktdocT PM KktdocT
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Posted: 1/9/2010 5:42:36 PM
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