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Author: [Office Pools] Topic: suicide pool, help
ironpat
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#1
Posted: 9/29/2011 1:38:30 PM

Already took GB, NE,and SD, Just looking for some input on what teams to look at.

Thanks guys and goodluck  ..

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#2
Posted: 9/29/2011 1:39:45 PM
if you feel like gambling and looking forward to the future... take Buf or Min... if you want a lock take NO
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#3
Posted: 9/29/2011 1:58:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ManjarrezG1:

if you feel like gambling and looking forward to the future... take Buf or Min...

terrible advice... dont do that..  why take both of those teams with spreads below -3.5 and they are on the road too, awful gamble. They will play teams later down the road in better spots so why use those teams when they are barely favs and on the road??

Take TB at home vs Indy. TB wont be -10 at home again probably, so take them now..

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#4
Posted: 9/29/2011 2:03:27 PM
I agree, I like TB here...No spread right?
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#5
Posted: 9/29/2011 2:24:49 PM
check the streak survivor forum...link below

COVERS TEAM IS CLUELESS and keeps moving all threads to that forum so nobody comments, what a joke!

Hey covers! suicide/survivor pools are not a contest and should be allowed in the nfl betting forum.  would it make you feel better if we called it ML play of the week minus these teams?

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=1010&sub=101141905
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#6
Posted: 9/29/2011 2:42:00 PM
terrible advice?

1. Colts can def beat the bucs with their defense on primetime

2. On a survivor pool, EVERYONE is trying to get the edge and make the "smart" pick when it really isn't... which means EVERYONE and their mother will be on the bucs for the exact same reason you stated... Id say vikings is more of a lock against the chiefs as opposed to the colts facing an overrated team that has 2TD passes and 4INTs... the colts defense will be all up in freeman's grill

3. When later in the season would you much rather take Minnesota? Only team i can see them getting a guarantee win over is Denver in week 13... here are some of your options in week 13 that you would rather pick than minnesota
eagles @ seahawks
chiefs @ bears 
bengals @ steelers 
ravens @ browns 
chargers @ jaguars (in this case ironpat would not be able to pick)

4. Take the bills now while they're hot... teams will adjust to them later in the season and lets face it... its the Bills... not necessarily a team you want to "save" for the end of the season
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#7
Posted: 9/29/2011 4:06:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ManjarrezG1:

terrible advice?

1. Colts can def beat the bucs with their defense on primetime

2. On a survivor pool, EVERYONE is trying to get the edge and make the "smart" pick when it really isn't... which means EVERYONE and their mother will be on the bucs for the exact same reason you stated... Id say vikings is more of a lock against the chiefs as opposed to the colts facing an overrated team that has 2TD passes and 4INTs... the colts defense will be all up in freeman's grill

3. When later in the season would you much rather take Minnesota? Only team i can see them getting a guarantee win over is Denver in week 13... here are some of your options in week 13 that you would rather pick than minnesota
eagles @ seahawks
chiefs @ bears 
bengals @ steelers 
ravens @ browns 
chargers @ jaguars (in this case ironpat would not be able to pick)

4. Take the bills now while they're hot... teams will adjust to them later in the season and lets face it... its the Bills... not necessarily a team you want to "save" for the end of the season

I think Minny is a very scary pick.  no way I would risk my season on the road with a horrible QB at one of the toughest stadiums to play at.  While Tampa is not going to be my pick this week its still much better than Minny.  Since the season is only 17 weeks long...that means there are 15 teams you do not have to take, which Minny surely will be one of them.  No need to try and fit them in now!

The goal is to survive and advance...I will worry about week 13 after week 12.  The league changes so much week to week that its hard to justify saving a team.  I wont be picking the steelers week 13 if I am eliminated this week.  

The Bills is a decent pick but its still on the road...Cincy D is way better than Buffalo's D so if the game is close watch out.

Some other solid picks could be:

@GB vs Den
@Chi vs Car
@Philly vs SF
Saints vs @ Jax


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#8
Posted: 9/29/2011 4:40:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:


I think Minny is a very scary pick.  no way I would risk my season on the road with a horrible QB at one of the toughest stadiums to play at.  While Tampa is not going to be my pick this week its still much better than Minny.  Since the season is only 17 weeks long...that means there are 15 teams you do not have to take, which Minny surely will be one of them.  No need to try and fit them in now!

The goal is to survive and advance...I will worry about week 13 after week 12.  The league changes so much week to week that its hard to justify saving a team.  I wont be picking the steelers week 13 if I am eliminated this week.  

The Bills is a decent pick but its still on the road...Cincy D is way better than Buffalo's D so if the game is close watch out.

Some other solid picks could be:

@GB vs Den
@Chi vs Car
@Philly vs SF
Saints vs @ Jax


hence why i said "if you feel like gambling"

i guess i have a different view on survivor pools this year because i have double pick weeks in week 5,6,12,and 13... I'm in a 325 person survivor pool

i still think minnesota will roll this week

anyway best of luck
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#9
Posted: 9/29/2011 5:14:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:

check the streak survivor forum...link below

COVERS TEAM IS CLUELESS and keeps moving all threads to that forum so nobody comments, what a joke!

Hey covers! suicide/survivor pools are not a contest and should be allowed in the nfl betting forum.  would it make you feel better if we called it ML play of the week minus these teams?

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=1010&sub=101141905



I'm staying in the NFC (Week 1 Houston, week 2 Pittsburgh, week 3 San Diego).  My choices are Tampa, after that would be GREEN BAY and CHICAGO.
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#10
Posted: 9/29/2011 5:20:01 PM
Good luck with the Vikings man, ballsy pick for week 4 of a suicide pool....

I am still between Packers, Eagles, and Bucs

I like the Bucs most as well, I don't see why this isn't the best spot for Tampa.  The Colts are not a good team by any stretch, their defense played well versus two average offensive teams in Cleveland and Pittsburgh.  Tampa Bay has a spotlight game for Josh Freeman

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#11
Posted: 9/29/2011 6:09:47 PM

philly or TB. only 2 choices this week.

I'm still alive in mine. Went with Arizona,pittsburgh and SD.

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#12
Posted: 9/29/2011 6:10:23 PM
sorry, GB also a choice.
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ironpat
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#13
Posted: 9/30/2011 12:41:21 AM
Thanks guys for some insight, this pool is straight up, i'm a bills fan and i was thinking of using them now , it wasn;t tolong ago they started the season was 5-0 and didn't make the playoffs, anyways still undecided...... Thanks again guys  
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#14
Posted: 9/30/2011 12:43:42 AM
id take t.bay over indy    best of luck!!!!
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#15
Posted: 9/30/2011 1:17:19 AM
Philly or NO are your best bets. Colts played the Steelers tough last week in primetime and could easily do the same thing this week with Painter playing the whole game. Gun to my head I am going NO though just because Vick is banged up and the Eagles can't stop the run or cover the TE. Both should still win though.
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ironpat
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#16
Posted: 9/30/2011 1:41:50 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by stats1:

id take t.bay over indy    best of luck!!!!

Stats ! Whats up, good to here from ya, tailing some of your plays in sprint,,,,,, gl buddy.\

ps is goggles really going to get Vegas D for real.

cheers

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#17
Posted: 9/30/2011 11:03:21 AM
Something tells me Green Bay and Chicago games will be close and I keep thinking the somehow Jax sticks around against NO.  Right now with my two picks am leaning Tampa and Philly.  San Fran is horrible on offense and this is a must win game for Philly.
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#18
Posted: 9/30/2011 11:53:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ManjarrezG1:

terrible advice?

1. Colts can def beat the bucs with their defense on primetime

2. On a survivor pool, EVERYONE is trying to get the edge and make the "smart" pick when it really isn't... which means EVERYONE and their mother will be on the bucs for the exact same reason you stated... Id say vikings is more of a lock against the chiefs as opposed to the colts facing an overrated team that has 2TD passes and 4INTs... the colts defense will be all up in freeman's grill

3. When later in the season would you much rather take Minnesota? Only team i can see them getting a guarantee win over is Denver in week 13... here are some of your options in week 13 that you would rather pick than minnesota
eagles @ seahawks
chiefs @ bears 
bengals @ steelers 
ravens @ browns 
chargers @ jaguars (in this case ironpat would not be able to pick)

4. Take the bills now while they're hot... teams will adjust to them later in the season and lets face it... its the Bills... not necessarily a team you want to "save" for the end of the season

lol you have no idea how to play a survivor pool. plus we dont know how many people are in his pool.... I laugh at all the creative guys taking 3pt favs or 2 pt favs on the road, we will see how long that will last you lol.  Too early to get freaky with  your pick.... ive won a couple survivor pools (mine werent big fields, just 25 or so people which alters strategy a bit), and i laugh at all the people that try your style then they wonder what happened.  Your style risk vs reward is very unbalanced...

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#19
Posted: 9/30/2011 11:58:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ManjarrezG1:

hence why i said "if you feel like gambling"

i guess i have a different view on survivor pools this year because i have double pick weeks in week 5,6,12,and 13... I'm in a 325 person survivor pool

i still think minnesota will roll this week

anyway best of luck

k its a bit different in a survivor pool of 300 people but i still disagree with your logic in taking barely road favs.  I will agree wiht you though that i like minny to win but if someone had a gun to my head and said pick either TB or Minny to win this week, i would easily say TB. You wont get TB at -10 odds again, and if you can get a team at -10 in a survivor pool and you know you wont  take them again then you have to jump on that and look at the future.. Its a great spot to take TB.

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#20
Posted: 9/30/2011 12:10:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

k its a bit different in a survivor pool of 300 people but i still disagree with your logic in taking barely road favs.  I will agree wiht you though that i like minny to win but if someone had a gun to my head and said pick either TB or Minny to win this week, i would easily say TB. You wont get TB at -10 odds again, and if you can get a team at -10 in a survivor pool and you know you wont  take them again then you have to jump on that and look at the future.. Its a great spot to take TB.


good stuff moneyshot....taking road favorites is a very risky play.  gotta take the easy plays an move on.  there will be lenty of juicy picks later to bet.  the minute you start getting cute your eliminated.  
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#21
Posted: 9/30/2011 12:15:01 PM
I have had some success in survivor pools in the past.  My rules are

1. Always take a home team unless there are no other options

2. I do not save teams for later in the season unless I have multiple choices that week, then I look ahead to see which I would want to take in the future.  Injuries wind up changing things in the futre anyway.

My logic is I have a better shot at picking a 3 or 4 pt fav in week 14 than I do in week 2.  By week 14 I have more info.  I let everyone else out think themselves early.  Inevitably, in a large one, some guy will be alive in week 14 with a bunch of top teams left because he was able to dodge bullets along the way.  He will have an advantage but I would rather get down to the end with weaker teams left then get knocked out early. 

I had to take 2 in week 1, I had AZ and SF.  Probably lucky to be alive.  Took Det and SD since.  I am going with TB this week.  I like GB, TB and PHI.  I go to rule 2 and I have options with GB in the future.  It comes down to who you like better PHI or TB for me.
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#22
Posted: 9/30/2011 12:19:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MoneyShot:

k its a bit different in a survivor pool of 300 people but i still disagree with your logic in taking barely road favs.  I will agree wiht you though that i like minny to win but if someone had a gun to my head and said pick either TB or Minny to win this week, i would easily say TB. You wont get TB at -10 odds again, and if you can get a team at -10 in a survivor pool and you know you wont  take them again then you have to jump on that and look at the future.. Its a great spot to take TB.



Yes I agree with Tampa play you wont get them at this the rest of the year but you should have the schedule out cirling games in the weeks coming up ahead of time that you might play to weed out your teams you can use!!
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#23
Posted: 9/30/2011 12:20:19 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Statsational:

I have had some success in survivor pools in the past.  My rules are

1. Always take a home team unless there are no other options

2. I do not save teams for later in the season unless I have multiple choices that week, then I look ahead to see which I would want to take in the future.  Injuries wind up changing things in the futre anyway.

My logic is I have a better shot at picking a 3 or 4 pt fav in week 14 than I do in week 2.  By week 14 I have more info.  I let everyone else out think themselves early.  Inevitably, in a large one, some guy will be alive in week 14 with a bunch of top teams left because he was able to dodge bullets along the way.  He will have an advantage but I would rather get down to the end with weaker teams left then get knocked out early. 

I had to take 2 in week 1, I had AZ and SF.  Probably lucky to be alive.  Took Det and SD since.  I am going with TB this week.  I like GB, TB and PHI.  I go to rule 2 and I have options with GB in the future.  It comes down to who you like better PHI or TB for me.

I agree. Also, I try to avoid divisional games.

I'm a bit looser on the "home team" rule, although I try as much as possible to follow it.

This week (like last week), there is going to be a road team blowing out a home team. Last week, I had Baltimore. This week, New Orleans.

Your goal in a survivor pool should be to take the best possible winner in the 1st 5 weeks. Make it through those first 5 weeks and you'll be able to then plan who to take for the next 5 weeks.

Stats is right. Injuries change things in the future. A bad team (e.g. Cin, Cle, etc.) may luck out in a matchup with key injuries in week 12. You can't try to plan that far ahead!

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#24
Posted: 9/30/2011 12:21:55 PM
Tampa  4 sure
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#25
Posted: 9/30/2011 12:38:29 PM
Like next week looks tough you might have to take the NYG and then the next week Pitt and then the next Balt all look like possibilities the next 3 weeks
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