WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
clubtnt PM clubtnt
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:04:13 PM
looks like quite a few of your RPIs don't add up. for example, you have ARI's offensive RPI at -6.4.

but if you calculate ARI's offensive RPI by hand you have:

ARI offensive average = 15.9 ppg. their opponents defenses average 12.9 (SF), 20.9 (MIN), 32.4 (BUF), 23.2 (STL), 18 (MIA), 22.1 (PHI), 21.2 (NE), 16.8 (SEA). the average of opponents defensive average is 20.9.

ARI offensive RPI should be 15.9 - 20.9 = -5. there is an even wider discrepancy with ARI's defensive RPI.
i_Win_u_Lose PM i_Win_u_Lose
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:05:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

Quantitative Power Rankings:

#01 San Francisco 49ers
#02 Denver Broncos
#03 Houston Texans
#04 Chicago Bears
#05 New England Patriots
#06 Seattle Seahawks
#07 Green Bay Packers
#08 New York Giants
#09 Arizona Cardinals
#10 Washington Redskins
#11 Atlanta Falcons
#12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#13 Miami Dolphins
#14 Baltimore Ravens
#15 Minnesota Vikings
#16 Detroit Lions
#17 Dallas Cowboys
#18 Pittsburgh Steelers
#18 St. Louis Rams
#20 Carolina Panthers
#21 New York Jets
#22 Philadelphia Eagles
#23 San Diego Chargers
#24 Cincinnati Bengals
#25 Oakland Raiders
#26 Cleveland Browns
#27 New Orleans Saints
#28 Tennessee Titans
#29 Jacksonville Jaguars
#30 Buffalo Bills
#31 Indianapolis Colts
#32 Kansas City Chiefs


silly can you explain how do you come out with these power rankings? or is it your own personal secret...? because i cap games diffrently ..... im just curious how do you decide to put what team on top of what team ? how do you come up with these numbers... same thing with that dude happykane with the mojo chart... i just can never understand that mojo chart of his ... but if it works and win the books.. cheers to u guys!
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:11:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clubtnt:

looks like quite a few of your RPIs don't add up. for example, you have ARI's offensive RPI at -6.4.

but if you calculate ARI's offensive RPI by hand you have:

ARI offensive average = 15.9 ppg. their opponents defenses average 12.9 (SF), 20.9 (MIN), 32.4 (BUF), 23.2 (STL), 18 (MIA), 22.1 (PHI), 21.2 (NE), 16.8 (SEA). the average of opponents defensive average is 20.9.

ARI offensive RPI should be 15.9 - 20.9 = -5. there is an even wider discrepancy with ARI's defensive RPI.

You're right, I just checked my database and one the online sources I draw from hasn't updated yet.  So I'm still using some of their totals from week 8.  I'll rerun Arizona's game once the data is updated.  Sorry about that, everything is usually good to go by Tuesday morning.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:16:26 PM
the rest of the RPI numbers should be correct in the other games.  If you notice an error, let me know, and I'll fix it in my database.
clubtnt PM clubtnt
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:25:04 PM
the others that don't match are phi, gb, sea, det.
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:48:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

I wish I could run a sheet on Bama - LSU this weekend... because it's freaking ridiculous that Bama is -9.5 point favorites on the road in death valley against a team that is 5-0 at home and 7-1 on the season who by the way ranks #5 in the country.  Got to imagine that there's line value on LSU, but you never know.. Bama is unreal.


Are they seriously 9.5 point favorites in a big revenge game like that? Wow thats shocking to me, i don't bet college that much but damm didn't think Bama had that much of an edge over LSU
Numero_Uno PM Numero_Uno
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Posted: 10/30/2012 1:59:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Are they seriously 9.5 point favorites in a big revenge game like that? Wow thats shocking to me, i don't bet college that much but damm didn't think Bama had that much of an edge over LSU

Agreed.  That LSU defense is really good.  Granted they really struggle on offense, but this line basically says that Bama would be more than a 2 TD favorite at home, which is unreasonable given how good that Tiger defense is.  I definitely could see Bama covering here, but if they do I think it will be close.  The more likely outcome is Bama by less than a TD in my opinion.
ReadBtWtheLines PM ReadBtWtheLines
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Posted: 10/30/2012 2:02:34 PM
RE: SURVIVOR
Week 9 appears to be the toughest week yet, at least for me.
Out of the teams I have available these are my top choices: SD, HOU, DET, DEN, TAM, NYG & SEA

Have to be honest, SU is one thing, but I am not willing the lay the points with Houston. Buffalo off of a buy and Williams return to Houston, this could be a more interesting game than it looks. As garbage as the bills are, they do have to ability to strike with the best of them.  

Curious as to what you think my man; who might it be best to roll the dice with this week, SU that is. Cheers.
The-OG-GunClapa PM The-OG-GunClapa
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Posted: 10/30/2012 2:32:11 PM
Hey s1lly was wondering if you will be posting the NBA Sheets? Dont see a thread yet and this was the most recent....(sent a friend request just couldnt PM or I would)
SunsDevils PM SunsDevils
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Posted: 10/30/2012 2:45:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by The-OG-GunClapa:

Hey s1lly was wondering if you will be posting the NBA Sheets? Dont see a thread yet and this was the most recent....(sent a friend request just couldnt PM or I would)


Read post #20 in this thread. Basically, he will have in ready in a month, when there is some data on the games.
slowphenomenon PM slowphenomenon
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Posted: 10/30/2012 2:50:51 PM
alabama does have that much of an edge on LSU, public perception will pound LSU and cry when Bama takes them to school.
Donnie_Baseball PM Donnie_Baseball
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Posted: 10/30/2012 2:53:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slowphenomenon:

alabama does have that much of an edge on LSU, public perception will pound LSU and cry when Bama takes them to school.

Macwestie1 PM Macwestie1
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Posted: 10/30/2012 2:59:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

Favorites that I'm looking at:

KC @ SD
CHI @ TEN
DEN @ CIN
BUF @ HOU
PIT @ NYG
DAL @ ATL

Just have to decide if this is another week for parody?  Or is it time for the cream to rise to the top?  Look at it just in terms of power rankings:

#32 @ #23
#4 @ #28
#2 @ #24
#30 @ #3
#18 @ #8
#16 @ #11

Looking at it this way and I'm tempted to throw out Atlanta right away.. despite the statistical line value.  Chicago, Denver and Houston look particularly good.  Giants and Chargers are both a little closer match-ups in terms of talent, but they both own home field.

Just have to decide if this is another week for parody? 

sil1y just thought I would correct you on the Word Parodyin which I thought was the right word but it's PARITY which is the correct spelling

Someone came into my thread and Corrected me on that word and i also used it
I also looked it up in the dictionary hehe



Macwestie1 PM Macwestie1
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Posted: 10/30/2012 2:59:48 PM
parity 1 |'parite|nounthe state or condition of being equal, esp. regarding status or pay: parity of incomes between rural workers and those in industrial occupations.• the value of one currency in terms of another at an established exchange rate.• a system of providing farmers with consistent purchasing power by regulating prices of farm products, usually with government price supports.Mathematics (of a number) the fact of being even or odd.• Physics the property of a spatial wave equation that either remains the same (even parity) or changes sign (odd parity) under a given transformation.• Physics the value of a quantum number corresponding to this property.• Computing a function whose being even (or odd) provides a check on a set of binary values.
By the way great reading GL this weekend sil1y
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 3:05:12 PM
Hahaha Mac, learn somtin' new every day!
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 10/30/2012 3:48:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slowphenomenon:

alabama does have that much of an edge on LSU, public perception will pound LSU and cry when Bama takes them to school.


Early wagering has 69% action on Bama.  Public perception is that Alabama is invincible, imo.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 3:48:54 PM

Locked in:

1:00 EST - Chicago Bears -3.5 (-105)

1:00 EST - Denver Broncos -3.5 (-105)
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 10/30/2012 3:49:59 PM
Silly, it's interesting that your #27 team has a 4.5 point edge over your #22 team on Monday night.  I don't know what to make of that game myself.
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 10/30/2012 3:51:20 PM
Any thoughts on Miami, Seattle, or Washington?
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 3:52:20 PM
You can buy the hook if you want on either of those games - but I decided against it myself.  On paper, the Bears and Broncos are both expected to substantially out-gain their opponent and both teams sport a much more efficient offense.  Put those two together and you have blowout potential in both games.  I'm not going to over-think the public consensus numbers or the curiously low lines on either of these games.  These two games pass all the tests so I won't wait around for either line to climb past 4 while I can still get them at reduced juice - a valuable asset if these two plays somehow split.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 3:57:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Silly, it's interesting that your #27 team has a 4.5 point edge over your #22 team on Monday night.  I don't know what to make of that game myself.

That game will come down to red zone conversions.  Whoever gets the ball in the end zone will win.  Running the efficiency models through this game and it would appear that the Eagles would have to out gain the Saints by 100+ yards to win this game.  I know the Saints defense is bad - so bad that this feat is doable on paper - but I'm not sure that it will be possible in practice in a prime time game on the road in the Superdome.  That's where the -4.5 point line came from.


si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 3:59:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Any thoughts on Miami, Seattle, or Washington?

Seattle and Washington have minimal line value, but I'm showing a high probability that in both games both teams will finish with similar total yards.  Then it will just boil down to who converts those yards into the most points.  I'm liking Miami this week.
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 10/30/2012 4:08:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


That game will come down to red zone conversions.  Whoever gets the ball in the end zone will win.  Running the efficiency models through this game and it would appear that the Eagles would have to out gain the Saints by 100+ yards to win this game.  I know the Saints defense is bad - so bad that this feat is doable on paper - but I'm not sure that it will be possible in practice in a prime time game on the road in the Superdome.  That's where the -4.5 point line came from.




If it comes down to Red Zone conversions, it's hard not to like Brees playing at home here with the season already hanging on by a thread.

Out of the 3 others I listed I also like Miami the most there.  Thanks for your insight brother 
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 10/30/2012 4:10:19 PM
I'm not sure when I started capitalizing "red zone" but maybe it's a sign I watch too much of that channel.  It's like crack on Sunday
SunsDevils PM SunsDevils
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Posted: 10/30/2012 4:20:02 PM
si1ly, I have a question regarding your over/under on worksheets. So, at what point do you consider betting over/under lined compared to your model totals? Is there a percentage that the line is off by or by the number of points? Thank you!
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