WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: WEEK 9 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:25:52 AM


COPY & PASTE THE LINK BELOW:

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvWVdnX2Etd1FtRjA/edit






si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:26:24 AM
Quantitative Power Rankings:

#01 San Francisco 49ers
#02 Denver Broncos
#03 Houston Texans
#04 Chicago Bears
#05 New England Patriots
#06 Seattle Seahawks
#07 Green Bay Packers
#08 New York Giants
#09 Arizona Cardinals
#10 Washington Redskins
#11 Atlanta Falcons
#12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#13 Miami Dolphins
#14 Baltimore Ravens
#15 Minnesota Vikings
#16 Detroit Lions
#17 Dallas Cowboys
#18 Pittsburgh Steelers
#18 St. Louis Rams
#20 Carolina Panthers
#21 New York Jets
#22 Philadelphia Eagles
#23 San Diego Chargers
#24 Cincinnati Bengals
#25 Oakland Raiders
#26 Cleveland Browns
#27 New Orleans Saints
#28 Tennessee Titans
#29 Jacksonville Jaguars
#30 Buffalo Bills
#31 Indianapolis Colts
#32 Kansas City Chiefs

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:29:43 AM
Databases are fully updated.  I will be periodically running and publishing this week's sheets as I find time during the day today.  At first glance I'm liking a lot of favorites.  Hopefully that's a good sign as the market shifts away from it's current rate of cashing underdogs blindly at 61% (70-45 on the season).  I would even consider endorsing a blind bet on all the favorites this week... well maybe not... let's see what the data says...

thuagame PM thuagame
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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:51:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

Databases are fully updated.  I will be periodically running and publishing this week's sheets as I find time during the day today.  At first glance I'm liking a lot of favorites.  Hopefully that's a good sign as the market shifts away from it's current rate of cashing underdogs blindly at 61% (70-45 on the season).  I would even consider endorsing a blind bet on all the favorites this week... well maybe not... let's see what the data says...
thanks ,but somehow i can only see KC- SanDiego game
thuagame PM thuagame
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Posted: 10/30/2012 10:57:35 AM
sorry Si1ly, but i can only see 1 game KC-SD. thanks
rambosdad PM rambosdad
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:05:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

 I will be periodically running and publishing this week's sheets as I find time during the day today. 

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:27:45 AM
I cruised through the sheets this morning, so they're all up there.  Definitely liking a lot of favorites this week.
Numero_Uno PM Numero_Uno
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:32:19 AM
Agree on the favorites.  I feel like I must be missing something, but I absolutely love Atlanta in this spot.  I have to imagine Dallas is a bit deflated after that tough lose to the Giants and Atlanta is really strong at home.  The one dog I do like (and it looks like your spreadsheet supports this) is the Bucs.
GiLmo574 PM GiLmo574
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:33:23 AM
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:41:15 AM
I wish I could run a sheet on Bama - LSU this weekend... because it's freaking ridiculous that Bama is -9.5 point favorites on the road in death valley against a team that is 5-0 at home and 7-1 on the season who by the way ranks #5 in the country.  Got to imagine that there's line value on LSU, but you never know.. Bama is unreal.
BadGnOmens PM BadGnOmens
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:44:23 AM
Hey si1ly,
Really appreciate the time you put into making all this data and putting it out for everyone to benifit. THANK YOU.....

That being said I cannot view any of the files, get to the page and it says the games but then "no description" next to them and when you click on the games its blank inside.... This was the case for last weeks games as well... Do you know if it is a problem with safari or using a mac? Just wondering if you have had other people with same issue..... Thanks again..
BadGnOmens PM BadGnOmens
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:47:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

I wish I could run a sheet on Bama - LSU this weekend... because it's freaking ridiculous that Bama is -9.5 point favorites on the road in death valley against a team that is 5-0 at home and 7-1 on the season who by the way ranks #5 in the country.  Got to imagine that there's line value on LSU, but you never know.. Bama is unreal.

Game scares me a bit though because LSU is Bama without an offense...... Even at home don't see how that gets em points against best D in FBS..... All that being said I don't like 9.5 either but am certainly going to enjoy a nice Under bet on this game, gonna be brutal to watch as humans are crushed beneath 2 meat grinders
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 11:53:18 AM
Favorites that I'm looking at:

KC @ SD
CHI @ TEN
DEN @ CIN
BUF @ HOU
PIT @ NYG
DAL @ ATL

Just have to decide if this is another week for parody?  Or is it time for the cream to rise to the top?  Look at it just in terms of power rankings:

#32 @ #23
#4 @ #28
#2 @ #24
#30 @ #3
#18 @ #8
#16 @ #11

Looking at it this way and I'm tempted to throw out Atlanta right away.. despite the statistical line value.  Chicago, Denver and Houston look particularly good.  Giants and Chargers are both a little closer match-ups in terms of talent, but they both own home field.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:02:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BadGnOmens:

Hey si1ly,
Really appreciate the time you put into making all this data and putting it out for everyone to benifit. THANK YOU.....

That being said I cannot view any of the files, get to the page and it says the games but then "no description" next to them and when you click on the games its blank inside.... This was the case for last weeks games as well... Do you know if it is a problem with safari or using a mac? Just wondering if you have had other people with same issue..... Thanks again..

The files are adobe PDF's hosted in a Google drive folder.  I don't have a mac so I don't know how safari handles them on a laptop or desktop.  My wife's iPad doesn't seem to have any issue opening them in Safari though.  Try downloading the Google chrome browser maybe?  Since I'm hosting in Google drive, I would think Google chrome would have the necessary plug-ins included to view the files.  Maybe you need an adobe reader downloaded?
doy15 PM doy15
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:10:23 PM
Hi si1ly,

When will you start posting in the Hoops Forum? :) Any leans for opening night tomorrow?
Slings PM Slings
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:10:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


The files are adobe PDF's hosted in a Google drive folder.  I don't have a mac so I don't know how safari handles them on a laptop or desktop.  My wife's iPad doesn't seem to have any issue opening them in Safari though.  Try downloading the Google chrome browser maybe?  Since I'm hosting in Google drive, I would think Google chrome would have the necessary plug-ins included to view the files.  Maybe you need an adobe reader downloaded?

I am on a macbook right now using safari, with adobe and am able to view them fine. Maybe check to make sure your adobe is installed ok.
FakeLogic PM FakeLogic
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:11:06 PM
Your sheets also have a 6-point differential in the TB/OAK game (favoring TB).  Thoughts?  Why don't you have any interest in that one?

Keep up the good work as always!
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:27:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FakeLogic:

Your sheets also have a 6-point differential in the TB/OAK game (favoring TB).  Thoughts?  Why don't you have any interest in that one?

Keep up the good work as always!

I do, I was just highlighting favorites to start the thread.  It's a theme I'd like to discuss this week.

I especially like how well Tampa defends the run.  Neutralizing Oakland's ground game and they're not left with much of an offense.
BadGnOmens PM BadGnOmens
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:29:19 PM
Downloaded chrome, works great, info looks great.... THANK YOU Si1ly!
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:34:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by doy15:

Hi si1ly,

When will you start posting in the Hoops Forum? :) Any leans for opening night tomorrow?

I'll be over there in about a month.  I did a lot of research in the offseason and I made some changes to my models to reflect my findings.  I used to be a firm believer in the four factors, but it turns out that they don't mean garbage.  It doesn't matter how well you rebound, or your turnover differential or your free throw rate.  One simple thing matters:  how well do you shoot and how well do you defend the shot.  Everything else is superficial.  Sure having fewer turnovers and having more rebounds can give you more possessions in a game and higher probability shot attempts.. but ultimately it still boils down to how well you convert those attempts and how well you prevent your opponent from converting them.  Basically, if you can determine which team will attempt the most high probability shots AND make a higher percentage of them then their opponent, you can cap a basketball game.  I've converted this simple finding into a mathematical model to predict these variables and determine an expected winning percentage and margin of victory from them.  I need at least a month of current season data to start drawing relevant conclusions.  I'll poke my head in from time to time until the sheets are ready, then I'll publish daily through May.
r3coil PM r3coil
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:40:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BadGnOmens:

Downloaded chrome, works great, info looks great.... THANK YOU Si1ly!

You probably need to clear your cache in Safari to get it working there. 

Safari > Empty cache 

Excited for NBA! 
cpsn PM cpsn
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:48:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

Favorites that I'm looking at:

KC @ SD
CHI @ TEN
DEN @ CIN
BUF @ HOU
PIT @ NYG
DAL @ ATL

Just have to decide if this is another week for parody?  Or is it time for the cream to rise to the top?  Look at it just in terms of power rankings:

#32 @ #23
#4 @ #28
#2 @ #24
#30 @ #3
#18 @ #8
#16 @ #11

Looking at it this way and I'm tempted to throw out Atlanta right away.. despite the statistical line value.  Chicago, Denver and Houston look particularly good.  Giants and Chargers are both a little closer match-ups in terms of talent, but they both own home field.

i feel a lot better now

early sunday i've locked in houston -9.5 for my biggest play of the year, as my raw numbers have houston winning by 22 and i figured the line should be around -14

then i see houston re-open at -12.0 and it got immediately hammered down to -10.5 and now even -10.0
i just don't get it.

same goes for chicago
i've locked them in at -4.5 and thought i made a nice deal as i have them winning by double digits
next thing i see it get's bet down to -3.5

i mean... seriously... what's there to like about buffalo and tennessee?!
BJaRz PM BJaRz
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:51:01 PM
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:56:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cpsn:


i feel a lot better now

early sunday i've locked in houston -9.5 for my biggest play of the year, as my raw numbers have houston winning by 22 and i figured the line should be around -14

then i see houston re-open at -12.0 and it got immediately hammered down to -10.5 and now even -10.0
i just don't get it.

same goes for chicago
i've locked them in at -4.5 and thought i made a nice deal as i have them winning by double digits
next thing i see it get's bet down to -3.5

i mean... seriously... what's there to like about buffalo and tennessee?!

Next to nothing.  #30th ranked team and the #28th ranked team both playing top 5 competition. 
Biscuit PM Biscuit
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Posted: 10/30/2012 12:56:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

I cruised through the sheets this morning, so they're all up there.  Definitely liking a lot of favorites this week.


Nice work 

I really like the pups in the last 2 games, but I'd bet you'd have a good week if you played all faves up until Sunday Night

GL
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