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Author: [Website Promotions] Topic: Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101
CZECH_RAZOR
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#76
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:48:11 PM
Hey yysmer,

Welcome to the thread. You're absolutely right it's impossible for 70% to ever be on an under and if you see it in your lifetime call me collect and I'll put 10u on the over. Lol 
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#77
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:51:25 PM
I will be on Denver too but not as confident as last game.
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#78
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:53:11 PM
One thing I haven't gotten into yet in this thread is busters on dogs and/or unders. These are among my favorite plays, taking a fav/over when the public is on a dog/under. 

You don't see public favoring dogs or unders too often, and when it happens and you get any indication on the line going the other way it almost always hits. 

This is really why I like Denver so much tonight, even though we don't have the line action. Busters are all over Lakers and I like Denver and they seem to be holding the line pretty strong. It's tried to go down a couple times but still hanging around -2.5 or -2 -115 on my site. 

Not a true system play since the line movement isn't there but I like it. Lakers fans beware lol 
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#79
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:55:07 PM
Yeah Denver really doesn't qualify and it's not going on my record in this thread win lose or draw. I'm gonna bet them though small just cuz I like them and told everyone after they barely lost game 2 that they'd win 3 and 4. No one believed me and tonight it will come true maybe. 
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#80
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:57:19 PM
If Denver can just hit some of their shots tonight they will win easily. That's gonna be the difference. Everyone knows lakers are suspect on the road, and they can't keep up w Denver. IMO it was Kobe that won game 2 and that's great but they almost lost that game even with Denver's abysmal shooting. 

Denver at home though was a different story in game 3 and I like that to happen again tonight. This is all just my opinion though 
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#81
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:57:20 PM
Hey guys. I get my %person from pregame.com and scores and odds. Pregame has the under att 66% right now. Scores and odds is at 68%76 on the under.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#82
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:00:38 PM
Guys I should add right now that my opinion doesn't mean garbage. I don't do write ups on games, and the fact that I just did on Denver even makes ME nervous lol. Denver is my opinion and there are indicators supporting it but this is my disclaimer here in case they lose. Don't want haters popping up in here saying I suck if they lose. I know I suck sometimes when I pick off my own opinion. 

I want the majority of this thread to be devoted to system plays but don't mind sharing my thoughts, as long as you guys know the difference. 

Okay I'll stop beating that dead horse lol go Denver! 
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#83
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:01:42 PM
Kendawg I've never used data from that site but if you trust it and like the over then it qualifies for you. 
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#84
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:05:20 PM
Okay I looked up that site and see where it says 66% on the under. Where does it pull that data from?

Guys I'm embarrassed to admit but onl recently starting to use other sites for info like this. Where is the most reliable place to get this type of data? 

If we knew the busters were pounding the under as this site suggests, then the over would def be a play. I just don't know anything about this site. 
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#85
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:12:36 PM
They supposedly get the info from several different sportsbooks but not exactly sure which ones
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#86
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:13:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Okay I looked up that site and see where it says 66% on the under. Where does it pull that data from?

Guys I'm embarrassed to admit but onl recently starting to use other sites for info like this. Where is the most reliable place to get this type of data? 

If we knew the busters were pounding the under as this site suggests, then the over would def be a play. I just don't know anything about this site. 


The site where he got "70% on under" must only take a small sample size. I used to use thespread.com, but so far I think "http://www.freesportsbet.com/scores/nba.html" is the most reliable source, and it records bet amount which you can't find in most other sites.
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#87
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:14:58 PM
Wow Boston going over with 6 minutes to go. What a poor showing by Atl 
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#88
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:29:28 PM
Wow that's why I didn't touch the Boston game second half. Can't believe how that game stalled after 1/2way through the 4th. Crazy that the total landed so close to the line I thought it was going higher. 

Anyways good no-play on that game. That's why we use the lines folks 
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#89
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:33:23 PM
Denver line moved back to -2. Take the Lakers or no play.
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#90
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:35:37 PM
Kendawg thanks for the info man I'll have to do more research on that site later, not using it tonight though. 

Denver at -2 -110 now, and total up to 202.5. 

System isn't making any predictions on this game I'm afraid. 

I personally like Denver and the over. Good luck to everyone no matter who you take. 
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#91
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:37:00 PM
The over is honestly the only thing that comes close to a play according my system. However due to rules 2 and 3 it doesn't qualify 
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#92
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:38:53 PM
I think that it moving to -2 is for the late buster action on lakers, and IMO doesn't mean anything. Still like Denver. 

This is what I'm afraid of on the total also. The only thing is the line move became significant on the over, so maybe it is a play. Idk. I can qualify any plays that are 50/50, and this is exactly why...indecision, which leads to rule 3, not going against my gut and breaking my own rules. 

NO PLAY ALL THE WAY AROUND
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#93
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:40:37 PM
Correction on above post: I CAN'T qualify plays that are 50/50. Need some sort of majority on other side and I just don't see it on this total. 

We see it on lakers but there is no line action to support our Denver pick. 

Hence: NO PLAY
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#94
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:42:38 PM
I took a tiny parlay den and over just for action, and fully expect to lose it somehow, which is typical when I break my rules. For the record though it's a no-play. 
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#95
Posted: 5/6/2012 9:46:19 PM
I think the latest line movement is an indication of a Lakers cover, just like last game a final movement from -5.5 to -6 and Celtics blew out Hawks. Basketball wise it also makes sense because Lakers have reliable scorers while Denver rely on fastbreak, 3pt and momentum. They will try harder this time. After the blowout last time I think Vegas will give this one to the public.
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#96
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:13:28 PM
The only thing I don't like about those late 1/2 pt moves is they can easily be adjustments for public bets, which come in pretty hard last 10 minutes before tip off. 

I don't think I've gotten into the difference between different kinds of line moves yet, but I look for PROGRESSIVE moves, not ADJUSTED ones. 

You guys will hear me talk more about that later. 
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#97
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:14:58 PM
With that being said though, if Vegas liked Denver that much they wouldn't need to drop it to -2 late. So yes that's why I said it was a no-play officially. 
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#98
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:20:02 PM
Yysmer-

Just so you know I never would have taken Lakers given all the info. It turned into a no-play but it never woulda been a lakers play. With everyone and their moms on Lakers that alone eliminates it from any consideration. Only if it moved all the way to like -2.5 or -3 Lakers would I consider it. 1/2 point moves toward the favorite are not moves at all. 
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#99
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:24:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Yysmer-

Just so you know I never would have taken Lakers given all the info. It turned into a no-play but it never woulda been a lakers play. With everyone and their moms on Lakers that alone eliminates it from any consideration. Only if it moved all the way to like -2.5 or -3 Lakers would I consider it. 1/2 point moves toward the favorite are not moves at all. 


I just don't think Lakers will drop another game today which will probably lead to a Game 7. I have been fading the Lakers all the time because they can't cover when they are favorite, but today I really like them in this spot
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#100
Posted: 5/6/2012 10:24:56 PM
We'll see. Seems like a close game so far.
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