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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Consensus Picks?
PurpleFrog
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PurpleFrog
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#1
Posted: 12/9/2012 8:04:55 AM

I went to make a pick and I get the message " This is a consensus pick and you can not make this pick" or something like that. It has happened more than once, OK, why can't I make this pick, if I can't make the pick ,why is it on the board? this is very confusing???

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#2
Posted: 12/14/2012 5:00:11 PM
"due to the consensus of this game, we cannot accept your pick." or something like that. usually, at least i think, it has to do with what others are picking. if 80% of people pick one team over the other, the consensus is too high and they are pretty much covering their fools because its a "sure thing".
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#3
Posted: 12/14/2012 5:00:55 PM
but if you wait a while, sometimes you can pick them later after the consensus evens out. at least in my experience that's what has happened.
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PurpleFrog
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#4
Posted: 12/16/2012 5:31:21 PM

Thanks for the reply, it does seem that if you wait it will let you make the play in most cases.

Thanks again

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Classof78
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#5
Posted: 12/17/2012 4:16:25 PM
Couldn't pick Green Bay yesterday and can't pick either Memphis(NBA) or Syracuse(NCAA) today, just a roadblock to success ! 
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Classof78
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#6
Posted: 12/17/2012 4:22:10 PM
I stand corrected, Memphis just showed up to the party.....
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#7
Posted: 12/19/2012 8:09:33 AM
Can someone explain why this occurs, in a contest where NO REAL MONEY is even being wagered?? Been burned on this twice this month, where of course the pick that vanished would have "won" (no money, but just for the streak) and the alternate pick ended up losing.
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Classof78
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#8
Posted: 12/29/2012 8:03:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whatsupjay:

Can someone explain why this occurs, in a contest where NO REAL MONEY is even being wagered?? Been burned on this twice this month, where of course the pick that vanished would have "won" (no money, but just for the streak) and the alternate pick ended up losing..................DITTO
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KeyElement
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#9
Posted: 1/5/2013 4:50:58 PM
During baseball season they never post games over -150. I asked Rizzo about that and he said it would make SS "too easy"
After I got through ROTFLMFAO I wondered if or Lou or Rizzo or any other person of authority here ever bet a baseball game. I would venture to say they can post all games and picking the over -200 favorites will never get you to 10, much less 25. As for the "consensus" being too high and making it easy, I wonder if they are aware how poorly the consensus does? 
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booyahz123
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#10
Posted: 1/6/2013 7:54:54 AM
I would rather they didnt lock your pick until gametime instead of a permanent lock with the way games that should be listed are not.  the consensus thing isnt always the case.  games I like that fall within the rules will not be listed and they really seem to hate to put up college basketball totals which tells me those are easier bets They have no problem putting up the fixed NBA and their totals right away 
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booyahz123
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#11
Posted: 1/6/2013 8:34:19 PM
I cant pick the Notre Dame / Bama game no reason for it
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#12
Posted: 1/7/2013 10:15:29 AM
consensus cutoff starts around 66 percent favoring, right?
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#13
Posted: 1/7/2013 3:09:54 PM
There were games blocked with 58 and 59% consensus. If Covers.com trusted their # they would just raise the # on the steaming plays,but they don't and they won't and they'll ask you why you girl;n on a free contest? Because my time and my patronage have value and are worth something too.
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6-DEGREES-SEP
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6-DEGREES-SEP
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#14
Posted: 1/8/2013 3:50:32 PM

STARTING IN SEPT AND THRU DEC. I TOOK EVERY PRO AND COLLEGE  "PRO CONSENSUS" BLINDLY AND THE RESULTS ARE 

PRO 172-168-13   -5801 UNITS.

COLLEGE 616-617-24   -30724 UNITS.

I QUIT TOWARDS THE END OF SEASON BECAUSE THE RESULTS WHERE IN ALREADY." PRO CONSENSUS" SUCKS.

 

WHAT CAN I TRY FOR THE 2013 SEASON?

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#15
Posted: 1/10/2013 8:03:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KeyElement:

During baseball season they never post games over -150. I asked Rizzo about that and he said it would make SS "too easy"



How could it possibly get too easy? It never seems easy. Besides, they have new Mobile App that they say right on the main page Your Chance to Win $100,000 "JUST GOT EASIER" so doesn't it stand to reason that they want it to get easier for us to win?
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yzzguy
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#16
Posted: 1/10/2013 12:01:10 PM
Start playing the Dawgs they win 54.7% of the time, thats a 9.4% in your favor of getting a win!
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powerplayer063
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#17
Posted: 1/14/2013 10:23:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 6-DEGREES-SEP:

STARTING IN SEPT AND THRU DEC. I TOOK EVERY PRO AND COLLEGE  "PRO CONSENSUS" BLINDLY AND THE RESULTS ARE 

PRO 172-168-13   -5801 UNITS.

COLLEGE 616-617-24   -30724 UNITS.

I QUIT TOWARDS THE END OF SEASON BECAUSE THE RESULTS WHERE IN ALREADY." PRO CONSENSUS" SUCKS.

 

WHAT CAN I TRY FOR THE 2013 SEASON?


I found what you said to be 100% correct! The easy answer is to learn to cap games yourself. There are two kinds of cappers today. The first uses stats/ trends/ astrology/ bio rhythms/ avg turd temp and a whole lot of other mostly meaningless stuff to achieve a 54% win rate and grind out a living. Not saying there is anything wrong with this. The second type is the old school matchups (eg. OL vs. DL) and so on. They also use some stat/trend stuff ( eg 4 games in 5 nights) but most of their decision making is done on information directly related to the teams playing and the circumstances surrounding that game. They make plays on fewer games, are risk adverse and tend to have a much higher win %. They also tend to keep to themselves and like to stay out of the spotlight not sharing their plays because most gamblers are a pain in the behind. A good starting point is to monitor folks in streak survivor who have an OVERALL decent win percentage. Look at the games they pick and pull up the matchup info to try and determine why they picked this game. Try and PM one and politely ask if they could share some of their info. Alot are nice guys and gals who don't mind talking to a person who is not overbearing and or simply wants winners and thats it. When in doubt, lay off...it will save you a few shekels in the long run. BOL. It is tough to become a good capper, but keep at it.
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OLB56
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#18
Posted: 1/14/2013 5:35:18 PM
Yo yzzguy......... Who's the hottie, what came first, a tank top that's too small or boobs that are too big She's the
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garretdoherty
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#19
Posted: 1/16/2013 12:23:17 PM

yeah like today00i wana pick cle +6 only 62% on them!?!?

 

dont make any sence to me

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Classof78
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#20
Posted: 1/16/2013 10:01:05 PM
ONCE again the team (Orlando) that I wanted to pick and couldn't, wins and the team ( Villanova ) that I picked loses. Can the people who run this site, PLEASE stop removing games from the survivor pick page, Thank you ! 
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combato
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#21
Posted: 1/20/2013 9:37:01 AM
I think they must be filtering games where they think they could get steamed.  If they move lines, then they run the risk of getting middled.  So instead, they just remove the game. This is what bookies used to do in the day when local books ran the show.  Any major book that takes down too many games will begin to lose customers. 

However, the only money at risk here is from Covers so I can see why they do it even though is raised the odds of winning.  But this is mostly for fun and to judge capping ability of others so I see no reason to get all worked up about. You ain't gonna hit 25 in a row.
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Classof78
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#22
Posted: 1/25/2013 4:18:25 PM
WHY the fck is the Manhattan game listed, IF you can't pick it ? Take it down if you don't want anyone to get a winning pick !!!
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Classof78
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#23
Posted: 1/25/2013 10:26:41 PM
ONCE again why the fck is Marquette listed for Saturday, if you won't let me pick it............
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Classof78
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#24
Posted: 1/25/2013 10:37:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Classof78:

ONCE again why the fck is Marquette listed for Saturday, if you won't let me pick it............
  THIS is getting very frustrating, first I got the consensus disclaimer and now I go back to make another pick and Marquette is listed as my pending pick, somebody needs to rectify what's happening on this site, I know, GO back to being Wagerline, don't remember any of this occuring when when it was.
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#25
Posted: 1/27/2013 7:38:32 PM
The consensus is a joke; nothing more than people like you and me making predictions in the league contests.  As 6-DEGREES-SEP has already pointed out, the so called "experts" picks are an even bigger joke.  The only thing that makes them "experts" is that they have guessed a few more right than the rest of us.  If the streak contest is truly taking the consensus picks in to account, then it is a fraudulent contest, as the consensus picks are made by non-$ wagering participants.  The consensus picks are skewed because there is no real inherent risk.
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