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Author: [Streak Survivor] Topic: Do bookie's lose money?
RantinRave send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/15/2010 11:46:04 PM
This is all hypothetical of course..

A person loses a lot of money to online sports books and this person's local guy. He then decides to take action from close friends and some others. In four weeks he gets cleaned out for 4k. Usually a bad weekend would be -500. He's doing everything "correctly" (i.e. charging 10 cents on the dollar, taking straight wagers only, game and halftime lines, etc.)

What would you do?
A. Stop
B. Continue
C. Other

PS - 50% are known degen's. The other 50% never wagered on a game in their entire life.
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#2
Posted: 11/16/2010 11:43:50 PM
Stop because you suck
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#3
Posted: 11/18/2010 2:32:57 PM
Thank you very much for the deep and insightful advice.
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#4
Posted: 11/18/2010 5:23:42 PM

Look man ...if money is not a worry then continue what you are doing  for it will turn around . I suggest you do some research online.

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#5
Posted: 11/19/2010 12:05:50 AM
Bookies only lose money when I bet with them
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#6
Posted: 11/19/2010 8:03:46 AM
You don't have a big enough base.  The point of bookies and/or sportsbooks is the get an equal number of bets on each side.  Therefore, they take the vig.  The goal is not to win the actual games.  A bookie's nightmare is when a game goes 75-25 or something like that.  They'd rather have it more along the 50-50 line, because they win either way.
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#7
Posted: 11/19/2010 12:54:10 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Chadnailz6:

You don't have a big enough base.  The point of bookies and/or sportsbooks is the get an equal number of bets on each side.  Therefore, they take the vig.  The goal is not to win the actual games.  A bookie's nightmare is when a game goes 75-25 or something like that.  They'd rather have it more along the 50-50 line, because they win either way.

completely wrong. "knew a guy who ran a book for 3 years" lol never wanted to just win 10 percent. The action is never even and thats a good thing. You will always come out ahead in the long run. Last couple weeks have been bad. A lot of public plays hitting like crazy. Vegas knows what they are doing just watch they will go on some bad runs.

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#8
Posted: 11/19/2010 12:55:29 PM
oh my answer is B
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#9
Posted: 11/19/2010 1:18:56 PM
oh he isnt doing everything correctly. parlays and teasers are a bookies best friend. why would you take straight wagers only.
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#10
Posted: 11/19/2010 5:50:26 PM

lightsout,

you are moronic if you are claiming that a bookie is not hoping for near equal action on the games.  Why in the hell do you think spreads are created?  To lure people into betting evenly on the matchup. 

Take this as an example:

Bookie takes 100 bets on Monday Night Football game.  Colts vs. Patriots, Patriots favored by 3.  It is a bookie/sportsbooks nightmare if 85 people take the Patriots.  They don't want to lose all of that money.  By getting more even bets, the bookie is going to make money no matter what.

If you're bookie would rather take the 85-15 spread, then I would deem him an ignorant person...

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#11
Posted: 11/19/2010 7:08:53 PM
Tuppy - Thanks for a genuine response. lol.

I always thought that parlay's and teasers were the wrong route to go unless you had a a bunch start up money. For example, "this person" doesn't want a couple people hitting a 3-team $100 parlay. I mean, in the long run they are going to lose, but right now there could be some desperation for a losing week.
 
They will be considered though.

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#12
Posted: 11/20/2010 11:09:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Chadnailz6:

lightsout,

you are moronic if you are claiming that a bookie is not hoping for near equal action on the games.  Why in the hell do you think spreads are created?  To lure people into betting evenly on the matchup. 

Take this as an example:

Bookie takes 100 bets on Monday Night Football game.  Colts vs. Patriots, Patriots favored by 3.  It is a bookie/sportsbooks nightmare if 85 people take the Patriots.  They don't want to lose all of that money.  By getting more even bets, the bookie is going to make money no matter what.

If you're bookie would rather take the 85-15 spread, then I would deem him an ignorant person...



yeah that would be true if that was the only game being played and it was an all or nothing for the book. 85-15 is an extreme by the way also. but even if u had 40 clients its never gonna land 20-20. always more action on one side but when each client is betting on 10-20 games a week it doesnt matter. Last monday night everyone and their mom was on the eagles and the over. It doesnt matter though because it is always bet back out.
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#13
Posted: 11/20/2010 4:41:28 PM
Haha, I definitely agree with you on the bet back out part.  Bookies love degenerates :p 
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#14
Posted: 11/20/2010 6:26:40 PM
just have to give my 2 cents worth (4 what it is worth). i honestly think with time all books win. the lines makers try to set the line on any given game in such a way that it suckers the novice or inexperienced better to take the bait. obviously this does not always apply but as a 25 year vet (losers mostly) if it looks to good to be true it probably is. i have known for years i am on the wrong side of the phone. lol like was said earlier lately the lines have been public friendly. weather out the storm and keep answering the phone. vegas will reel 'em in hook line and sinker. good luck rnr
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#15
Posted: 11/22/2010 3:03:56 PM
Keep being the book if you can handle the down weeks.  In the long run, you will win out against the public.  I would suggest taking parlays and teasers because it is hard enough to win one side of a bet, more so two.  Books love the exotic plays and make a fortune off of the losers.  You should also look at laying off some of the action if it is too lopsided on one team.  That's what the smart books do to reduce a catastrophic loss.
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#16
Posted: 11/22/2010 4:53:22 PM
my answer is B, but small time bookies run the risk that people will win, unlike bigger books.

An online sportsbook is going to have the action evened out enough that they'll never be that exposed. Sure, sometimes they'd have more on one side than the other, but nothing lopsided.

If you book for ten people, you could have it that the people tend to make somewhat similar picks, and that they win more often than they lose.
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#17
Posted: 11/22/2010 4:54:22 PM
basically, if you kept booking, I have no doubt you'd make money in the long run. Of course, if you don't have that much money, you could run into problems.
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#18
Posted: 11/23/2010 1:12:48 AM

 

Make sure to hedge your bet if you have too much action on one side.  Keep doing it you'll be fine.

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#19
Posted: 11/23/2010 2:00:30 PM
Originally I thought that placing the bigger action on another book would be the smart move, but I've came to the conclusion it would have been smart to actually have a starting bankroll so that it doesn't effect me mentally the next day at work.

I agree that in time they will lose, but we're in week 11 and the book is still down. Thankfully last night most went HUGE on the over. So I was able to get back some, but still I'm way down.

I'll try and offer parlays and teasers, but that might make things a little more complex. Either way, I'll be sure to keep you all updated.
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#20
Posted: 11/23/2010 3:18:35 PM

As long as you hedge your action to get to 50%...you can't lose. As the bookie, your income is the juice you charge. don't get greedy...and the juice box will just grow and grow and grow. stay away from the cookie jar......its your business.

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#21
Posted: 11/23/2010 3:22:07 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by lightsout2184:



yeah that would be true if that was the only game being played and it was an all or nothing for the book. 85-15 is an extreme by the way also. but even if u had 40 clients its never gonna land 20-20. always more action on one side but when each client is betting on 10-20 games a week it doesnt matter. Last monday night everyone and their mom was on the eagles and the over. It doesnt matter though because it is always bet back out.

YOU MAKE IT LAND 20-20.......By hedging...

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#22
Posted: 11/23/2010 6:39:08 PM
But doesn't the bookie win by assuming the player will hit 50/50 in the long run?

So if the player makes (100) $100 wagers we are assuming that they will win $5000 and lose $5500 ($5000 + the juice). Or do we not even concern ourselves with that? If the action is to big we just put it off to another book?

For example, since I'm in the rough now I would consider anything over $200 a "big" wager. So should I just put all that action on a low juice book (@ -105)?

Everything seems easy in hindsight and quite frankly I would have followed these rules, but I got busted up my first couple weeks.
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#23
Posted: 11/23/2010 9:14:46 PM
bottom line is games are fixed not all of them but there are enough to where vegas cant lose. thats why the last time vegas lost money was when sd played sf in the bowl. i know people dont want to believe it but ive seen way too many shady calls and plays and dont anyone give me they make too much money to fix games. james harrison was contimplating retiring over a 50k fine,vick killed dogs,carruth and lewis killed humans,pacman well he does it all thats illegal the list goes on and on so dont tell me that if these guys are doing crimes like these that fixing games is so immoral and they wouldnt do it.you see politicians going to prison over a few grand and martha stewart a billionaire going to jail over 400k. people cheat in all aspects of life lets not fool ourselves and think that theres no way it cant happen in sports either.wheres theres money there will always be corruption that much is guaranteed.and to answer your question when taking bets you will go through rough patches but the most important thing is getting people who are good pay you can win all you want getting the money on the street is the hard part. that my friend is your way of paying taxes in the illegal world. if you have the bankroll and good paying gamblers you will come out on the positive side.
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#24
Posted: 11/23/2010 9:43:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by yankee444:

bottom line is games are fixed not all of them but there are enough to where vegas cant lose. thats why the last time vegas lost money was when sd played sf in the bowl. i know people dont want to believe it but ive seen way too many shady calls and plays and dont anyone give me they make too much money to fix games. james harrison was contimplating retiring over a 50k fine,vick killed dogs,carruth and lewis killed humans,pacman well he does it all thats illegal the list goes on and on so dont tell me that if these guys are doing crimes like these that fixing games is so immoral and they wouldnt do it.you see politicians going to prison over a few grand and martha stewart a billionaire going to jail over 400k. people cheat in all aspects of life lets not fool ourselves and think that theres no way it cant happen in sports either.wheres theres money there will always be corruption that much is guaranteed.and to answer your question when taking bets you will go through rough patches but the most important thing is getting people who are good pay you can win all you want getting the money on the street is the hard part. that my friend is your way of paying taxes in the illegal world. if you have the bankroll and good paying gamblers you will come out on the positive side.


*** Ignoring the part about sports being rigged. That's a whole nother topic. Though I do agree with you on some parts ***

It sucks that you say that the bookie will go through rough patches. What if rough patches is all they have seen?
What if they win 95% of the over bets? - I swear it has something to do with the helmet rules in place.
What if they all quit when they get down?

I guess that's why it's a risk right? Maybe 11 weeks isn't long enough. Maybe magic will happen by the super bowl.
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#25
Posted: 11/25/2010 8:53:10 PM
Is there a place for archived lines? I swear the over has been hitting ALOT more often these days.
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