Posted: 5/2/2012 7:27:56 PM
Rangers v Capitals over 5 +130
This is my biggest playoff bet so far, 3 dimes.
Lundqvist is a great goalie. No doubt about that. However, will it surprise you to know that he has not done as well throughout his career when facing Washington? He has a career GAA of 2.78 against them in 22 starts. So far after two games, that average is starting to come spot on. However, tonight I am more focussed on his performace at Washington.
Before I get there though, It might surprise most to know that Washington is his 5th worst opposition during his career. That is, his GAA is better against 25 other teams than it is against Washington. Among those 5 teams though there is St. Louis who he has only faced 3 times, (3.05 career GAA), LA with 6 career stars (2.96 GAA) and Colorado for example (2.88 GAA) and this is primarily because of conference play. Among teams that he faces regularly though, (Eastern Conference Teams), Washington is one of his worst foes. In 8 career starts AT Washington’s MCY/Verizon Centre his GAA is 2.94.
Now, do the Caps go with Holtby tonight again? I would imagine that they do (I mean why wouldn’t they?) Consider that despite his good looking performance this year, he has struggled on home ice where he posts a 3.42 GAA. In the first round he allowed 4 goals in two of the three home starts. Now, consider that this kid has started all but 18 NHL games. In my view, this will catch up to him.
I look for a big game from Ovechkin tonight, setting the tone in what could be an explosive game for the goal judge. First game at home in a fresh series so I expect he crowd to be in the game early and both teams to come out with some added emotion. Ovechkin only logged 13:36 of ice time in Game 2, his lightest workload ever in a postseason game and whatever the reason, expect him to have fresh legs and a motivated attitude tonight.
This is the one I’m hammering tonight. I really feel that this game has the potential to see 6 or more goals and I like the fact that playing the over in this one is going to pay me back 30 cents on the dollar.
Now, you may ask, if I feel that the Caps are going to have a great game then why not play them at -109 on the moneyline. Simple answer, I don’t trust Holtby in net yet. It really is as simple as that.
Given the statistical averages (something that any of you who know my handicapping style should know by now) this game looks like it will see some goals. My projections show both teams scoring 3 goals. Whether they or do or not remains to be seen but I see some money value in the over here. 4-3 is my biggest projection with 5-3 being tied for second with 4-2. (I use a variety of statistcal calculations to project outcomes)
Good luck my friends.