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Author: [Investments] Topic: spys trade 138 before they trade 127
hook21 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
hook21
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#1
Posted: 5/28/2012 1:06:12 AM
i see little chance they let greece out of euro in a hurry, and china has plenty of dough to infuse.  plenty of people have acknowledged election year angle...

earnings over so i see no catalyst to take us down for a month or 2.  sell july 126/128 put spread.

good luck to all.


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wallstreetcappers send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 5/28/2012 1:14:05 AM
So you see a 5% move before July?

Greece is having an election in a few weeks, they wont be ramping the market into that unknown pit.

IMO
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#3
Posted: 5/28/2012 1:19:44 AM
that june 17 election seems to be in favor of the pro-bailout party now, according to latest opinion polls i saw, so i certainly do not want to be short near term upside.  if market slows and summer gets here, i could see a drift up as opposed to the downside.  still lots of cash on sidelines and a lot of hedge funds maybe got away with being behind the s&p 1st Q rally - but will they stay on sidelines if another starts?  I'm a long term bear.....just a short term potential bull with less fear of short term downside to justify current vol and skew levels.

good luck to all.



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Renton send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 5/28/2012 4:28:16 PM
Economics 101.

Good weather = Rising stock prices... but variation to the norm is minimal
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hook21 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 5/28/2012 11:51:32 PM
haven't played the weather angle, but it'll give me something to look at during the early morning rally....until spain throws up on themselves.

good luck to all.
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#6
Posted: 6/15/2012 12:35:35 PM
eem, sell sep 42/44 call spread at these vol levels against existing spy short july put spread. 

gl to all.

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#7
Posted: 7/8/2012 1:08:13 AM
skew has been hit pretty good in most index products but there still seems to be a free put offered by world QE...roll out the july 126/128 short put spread to august...same strikes or maybe sell the 129s instead of 128s.  uso put spreads from 28 and down look safe to sell as well, but i stay out of commodity based things for the most part.

gl to all.


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#8
Posted: 8/8/2012 2:13:56 AM
last post on thread as this was just looking to help those here who may trade these products (and this thread doesn't seem to be resonating with anyone, which is fine)...weekly spy aug 135/ 137 ps is small collection as a sale, but worth it if you also have above listed trades.  15 to 20 % return should be everyone's goal.


gl to all.


 


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#9
Posted: 8/8/2012 11:09:49 AM
Good call..

Not sure how you can navigate this manipulation, it does not have much of anything to do with technicals or charts though.
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#10
Posted: 8/8/2012 1:06:26 PM
yeah, i look more at option flow both listed and OTC to see if there are some barriers or gamma that can move us thru or stop at a strike if we happen to get there.  i have no skill at direction, just try and win at speed of any direction.

gl to all.

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