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Author: [Investments] Topic: AIG
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#51
Posted: 5/4/2012 1:42:47 PM
AIG has very little growth in their operations, their investments are where the gains are.

Insurance arbitrage is not going to yield growth, the only way this company has ever grown is by taking risks..and it is obvious they know that based on some comments made recently. They have sold so much of their high return assets that it makes book value and past EPS of no value looking forward.

It is also a crime that they are allowed to write down taxes through passing forward NOL's as they are..what a slap in the taxpayers face.
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#52
Posted: 5/4/2012 7:58:30 PM
Looks like the government is selling a tiny bit of stock, I am shocked it isnt dropping lower than this in AH.


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#53
Posted: 5/7/2012 3:59:00 PM
slew of upgrades for AIG after nice earnings report.
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#54
Posted: 5/7/2012 5:16:48 PM
I guess we have different opinions on what a stellar earnings report is.

Investment gains are not recurring and should not be included in core earnings. It wont be there next quarter.
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#55
Posted: 5/7/2012 5:23:41 PM
the faster the Fed can sell the assets, the faster AIG can repurchase...having AIG as an enormous buyer every time shares are liquidated ensures price support and is actually decreasing the outstanding shares in the long run.  Government will be gone by November (election)...and it'll run hard after that.
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#56
Posted: 5/7/2012 5:26:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

I guess we have different opinions on what a stellar earnings report is.

Investment gains are not recurring and should not be included in core earnings. It wont be there next quarter.

Fundamentals for AIG are getting stronger every quarter...do you disagree?  so, once the goverment is gone...the book value chasing will begin.
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#57
Posted: 5/7/2012 7:50:15 PM
I do disagree.

They are selling assets that have performed nicely for them in order to bring in cash, there will be no book value chasing as they are selling assets which are ADDING to book value to buy shares to slow dilution.

Even selling these prime assets they still are unable to buy all the shares, this weekend they purchased 35% of the shares, that means there was still dilution and that is a lowering of book value as well.

Their core assets are not growth assets, the only way this company has ever grown is by taking risks. I think you are way off on book value and way off on what their growth prospects are.
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#58
Posted: 5/8/2012 8:08:41 AM
not a huge fan, but Cramer's got the idea:

Over the weekend, the government sold a good portion of its stake in AIG (AIG), 5 billion shares, of which the company bought back 2 billion. Very few investors could get in on the secondary offering, since it was hammered out so quickly, but Cramer thinks the deal was like a giant neon sign that says "Buy, buy, buy AIG." The fact that the government allowed AIG to buy back 45% of its shares shows that it has confidence in the company, and the fact that management bought back the stock is a sign that it feels ready to hit its target of 10% revenue growth. AIG is now a leaner, meaner company than it was when it was a ward of the state three years ago, hobbled with $182 billion worth of bailouts. It is now a simpler company, focused on life insurance, casualty insurance and mortgage guarantees. The stock has risen 37% so far this year, and has further to run, given that it is trading at a $27 discount to its book value of $58.71 per share. The recent buyback shrank the share count by 4%, and AIG will likely have other buybacks in the near future. Cramer thinks the success of the secondary offering was an impressive indication of real demand for the stock.
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#59
Posted: 5/8/2012 10:57:53 AM


  Simski Investments 
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#60
Posted: 5/8/2012 11:34:59 AM
So the stock tout (Cramer) has not done his homework again, how shocking.

He can think book value is 200 a share, to me that means absolutely nothing. I look at assets and financial statements, he looks at a teleprompter.

AIG is leaner and meaner because they did a reverse stock split, sucked off the teet of the goverment and sold off a huge chunk of their assets.

Their core business has never been a monster growth machine, the growth has always come from speculation and risk. 

The 1 for 20 reverse split means the stock now is trading at what 1.50 pre split? 

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#61
Posted: 5/8/2012 4:16:49 PM
i know you think Whitney Tilson is a tout, but he is saying here in his recent presentation what i think will play out and what i have been saying.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/92756415/T2Partners-ValueInvestingCongress-5712
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#62
Posted: 5/9/2012 8:20:44 AM
another upgrade...this time from GS.  analysts are catching on...albeit a little slowly.
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#63
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:00:47 PM
Directors bought 1/2 million in stock on the open market today...gotta love that.
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#64
Posted: 5/9/2012 9:55:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sims_key:

Directors bought 1/2 million in stock on the open market today...gotta love that.

I am not sure that those arent option warrants that he is executing.

Either way the dude has been getting killed buying AIG. The bulk of his buys, all made pre-split in 2008, the 1 for 20 reverse happened in 09, so his buys until 2011 are all divided by 20, he owns all those shares at extremely high prices..will probably never recover his cost basis.

No wonder he is bottom fishing.
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#65
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:36:24 AM
You got a great way of spinning everything.
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#66
Posted: 5/10/2012 12:42:57 AM
So did you look at his purchase history?

He bought at 70 pre split in 2006, his cost basis is probably 50-70% higher than current price.
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#67
Posted: 5/10/2012 8:28:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

So did you look at his purchase history?

He bought at 70 pre split in 2006, his cost basis is probably 50-70% higher than current price.

i don't care when THEY (not he) bought in the past, it doesn't change the fact that they wouldn't be buying shares if they didn't believe the stock has much upside (even if it didn't work out before). it's always great to have the directors invested on the same side as you.
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#68
Posted: 5/10/2012 8:43:34 AM
another analyst hyping this stock this morning...this time it's Bernstein saying stock has 50% upside from here.
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#69
Posted: 5/10/2012 8:47:30 AM
right now i'm in 40 x Jan 2013 30.0 calls at 5.05.

got $3k of profit (+15%) from the sell and buyback (posted above) on the sidelines.

not too late to ride this with me.
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#70
Posted: 5/10/2012 2:58:21 PM
treasury done selling shares on the open market...nothing keeping it down now.  expecting a quick climb back up to the $35 level.
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#71
Posted: 5/10/2012 3:53:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sims_key:

treasury done selling shares on the open market...nothing keeping it down now.  expecting a quick climb back up to the $35 level.

How do conclude they are done selling in the open market?

That article says they were done with that batch..the treasury still owns what 65% of the company?


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#72
Posted: 5/10/2012 5:01:30 PM
yeah...looks like i misread the article...was wondering how they were going to repay it all without selling more common.

Treasury still owns 61% (1 billion shares)...so 5 more issues like this last one (200 million shares) and they'll be done.

AIG is going to be right there scooping up the shares every time.
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#73
Posted: 8/14/2012 10:58:07 AM
rolling again...$1 off 52 week high.

AIG scooping up billions in shares at every offering...love it.
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#74
Posted: 8/16/2012 11:13:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sims_key:

I'll add my half back here to my calls at 5.10 and pocket the $3k profit.

20 x Jan 19 2013 AIG 30.0 calls for 5.10

$3k profit realized + $3k profit unrealized.

nice chart...nice valuation...nice ROI.
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#75
Posted: 9/14/2012 10:43:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sims_key:

going big here on Jan 2013 30.0 calls....

in 20k at $5.

incredible investment guru i've been following for years says it's the most confident he has EVER been in a stock price....ride it with me.

sold these at $6 for a 20% gain.

not the double i was hoping for, but can't complain about $7k profit over 8 months on $20k.
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