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Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: NBA Wednesday
SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
SettleDownSpaz
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#1
Posted: 5/2/2012 12:42:38 PM

2012 Playoffs : 14-7-2 +75.12 units

Los Angeles / Memphis UNDER 185 (waiting in hopes of a 185.5)

This will be a play and a pretty big one assuming the number doesn't plummet.  I think you're safe down to 183, but of course I'd feel better at 185/185.5.  I'll have some thoughts on this total shortly.  Hoping to get this one in soon.  

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andreagassi6969
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#2
Posted: 5/2/2012 12:58:01 PM
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SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 5/2/2012 1:10:45 PM

thanks andre

Los Angeles / Memphis UNDER 185 (12 units to win 11.43)

Already see some shops down to 184.5, so I'm going to get this one in the book.

 

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mikenice send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#4
Posted: 5/2/2012 1:33:30 PM
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#5
Posted: 5/2/2012 1:38:53 PM
Good calls last night.  spaz
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MIKECOUU78 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#6
Posted: 5/2/2012 1:41:44 PM
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SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 5/2/2012 2:18:00 PM
mikenice, matangster, MIKE C - thanks fellas
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SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 5/2/2012 2:34:14 PM

I try not to put too much emphasis on regular season numbers when the playoffs roll around, but in some cases things are difficult to ignore.  What we know about Game 1.  Memphis outplayed the Clippers for 3+ quarters, but LA wouldn't quit and stole one on the road.  The Clippers won that game because of three people - and it's not who you'd expect.  The "Big Three" of Nick Young, Reggie Evans and Eric Bledsoe won the game for LA.  Some notable takeaways from Game 1

54 - number of points LA scored in the paint, however their bigs (Blake, Deandre, Evans and Kenyon) only scored 28 total points excluding foul shots.

50% - The Clippers FG %, which overall is rare, but even more so on the road

68.8% - Memphis 3Pt shooting %

76 - The combined + number for Young, Evans and Bledsoe

-41 - The combined - number for the Grizzlies bench

So, Game 1, known for the biggest comeback in playoff history, had several anomalies.  Ones that I'd be surprised if they showed up again tonight.  That being said, even without these stats, the game clearly could go over.  The Clippers starters were not good, so they could come back in a big way.  However, the regular season tells us that this situational spot for the Clippers is one where they historically have struggled.  Memphis, on the other hand, faces a scenario where this season they have typically done well.

This season on the road against the top 10 defenses based on FG % (Memphis is 7th), the Clippers are 0-5-2 SU in regulation and 2-5 ATS.  Their only two SU wins required OT, so both of these games could have bounced the other way.  In these 7 games, the Clippers averaged 88 points in regulation. 

Prior to Game 1's home loss, Memphis had won 11 straight in their own building.  This season, following a home loss, the Grizz are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in their next game at home.   In these games they are holding opponents to an average score of 90 points.

Again, those are regular season numbers, but I don't expect the numbers we saw in Game 1.  I think the Clippers shoot below 50%, the Grizz shoot below 68% from 3Pt, the Clipper bench is less relevant, the Grizz bench is more relevant.  Ultimately, I think the Clippers struggle to get things going and much of that will be due to the defensive pressure they see from Memphis, who surely will be seeking to get one back at home.

No thoughts on the side. Lean to Memphis, but unsure if I play it.  I think the Grizzlies win, so I might find myself involved in some capacity backing Memphis.

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SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 5/2/2012 4:14:33 PM

Utah Jazz +11.5 (9.4 units to win 8.95)

Pouring through the Game 1 box score, I realized that the Jazz didn't really play all that bad.  They rebounded well, they didn't turn the ball over and they defended the three.  So, what did them in?  Points in the paint, inexperience, pace and Josh Howard.  All things that can be fixed with the exception of inexperience, but just moving from a Game 1 to a Game 2 is a huge difference to the mindset of the youn Jazz. They know they need to stop Tony Parker and Ty Corbin has been vocal about that (maybe more than he needed to be).  In addition, they got killed on the pick and roll, but defensive lapses there usually don't repeat themselves so consistently from game to game.  The bigs of Utah need to have more of an impact, both offensively and defensively and the threesome of Jefferson, Milsap and Favors have the potential to really dominate the Spurs on the inside.  Again, their ability to stay close tonight will depend on how they do defensively, and if they show up a little tougher and a little more polished, this game wil be close.  Since March 12th, the Jazz have played 27 games and have only lost 2 by more than the line for tonight's game. The Jazz are 25-2 ATS against a line of 11.5 in their last 27 games.  Sure they weren't playing the Spurs, but proof that they don't often get blown out.  People have all but declared the Spurs to the next round and the team to beat out West, but they still have some basketball to play in round 1 and they are facing a fiery young upstart looking for some NBS street cred. 

 

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Posted: 5/2/2012 4:22:22 PM
Nice write-up on the Jazz-Spurs. I wholeheartedly agree with your Jazz play. They are more than capable of hanging with the Spurs offensively and should shore up some of their defensive shortcomings from game 1. This game will likely not be decided by double digits.




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#11
Posted: 5/2/2012 4:39:44 PM
GL SDS
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SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#12
Posted: 5/2/2012 4:45:57 PM

mellow - thanks buddy, good to see you on the Jazz my friend

Going to gamble a little..

Utah Jazz +6.5 first half (8.8 units to win 8)

Utah Jazz +330 first half (4 units to win 13.20)

 

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#13
Posted: 5/2/2012 4:46:19 PM
dime - thanks buddy
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thatsagoodone send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#14
Posted: 5/2/2012 5:10:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SettleDownSpaz:

Utah Jazz +11.5 (9.4 units to win 8.95)

So, what did them in? Points in the paint, inexperience, pace and Josh Howard.

I hate Josh Howard.  Brick after brick after brick. 

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SettleDownSpaz send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 5/2/2012 5:41:21 PM

thatsagoodone - guy just got lazy.  seemingly no passion

A few side/total leans in the Indiana-Orlando game, but don't feel too strong on any of them.  Going to play one prop, which I think comes in regardless of who wins

Ryan Anderson OVER 15 Pts (8 units to win 8)

For some reason Stan the Man and the Magic don't realize what a tremndous offensive weapon Ryan Anderson can be in this series against the Pacers.  A big guy who can consistently knock down threes.  Despite being their leading scorer (sans Howard), Anderson has taking 16 shots in the first two games.  That's 10% of Orlando's total shots.  Insane.  Their leading scorer is not getting the shots that he should.  I think Van Gundy knows this and I think Anderson comes out gunning at home.  His season splits are much better at home and if he gets at least his average FG attempts of 12, I have no concerns with this bet.  The Magic need him scoring to win Game 3 and if they're losing, they'll need him to keep them close. 

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Retburj13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#16
Posted: 5/2/2012 6:13:03 PM
spaz..............the weed did Josh in...talent wasted


gl tonte
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#17
Posted: 5/2/2012 6:48:54 PM
Good luck Spaz and thanks for last night, I f..king hammered my book  lastnight and plan on doing the same tonight.
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#18
Posted: 5/2/2012 8:36:50 PM
good luck man... 


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#19
Posted: 5/3/2012 8:04:49 AM
Still can't believe there were so many points scored in that Memphis/lac game. I thought if it did go over, it would be around 190, and that there was more of a chance that the game was played in the upper 170's.
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#20
Posted: 5/3/2012 8:24:38 AM
betting against them spurs this year is not a safe play.
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