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Author: [MLB Betting] Topic: First Inning Runs 5/14
totalguy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:39:03 PM
First Inning Runs picks based on historical outcomes stratified by the full game O/U, the only variable that is highly correlated to the outcome of this prop.

This season 137-94, +60.8 units, last season 180-170, +37.05 units
Current YTD YES%=53.0%

Been on a very nice hot streak, going 96-54, +70.4 units over the last 3 weeks.

SD/Was YES +120, 1 unit (must bet +115 or better)
Hou/Phi YES +100, 2 units (must bet -108 or better)
TB/Tor YES +110, 2 units (must bet -105 or better)
Mil/NYM YES +100, 2 units (must bet -108 or better)
Pit/Mia YES +120, 1 unit (must bet +115 or better)
Cin/Atl YES -105, 1 unit (must bet -108 or better)
Det/CWS YES +100, 1 unit (must bet -105 or better)
Oak/LAA YES +110, 2 units (must bet -103 or better)
AZ/LA NO -150, 2 units (must bet -162 or better)

GL
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sweetlou927 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:42:38 PM
gotta disagree with you on pitt@miami i think it a great chancr for no score int he 1st.
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totalguy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:44:27 PM
Fair enough.  Just make sure you have a good enough line on that NO.  You probably need it to be -115 or better to even be worth your while.

GL
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switchwalk send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#4
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:46:53 PM
BOL today 
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#5
Posted: 5/14/2012 1:04:29 PM
BOL
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#6
Posted: 5/14/2012 1:27:10 PM
Hey brotha, nice run. 

I also like to mix in a few 1st inning plays and always make sure I'm not going against you before pulling the trigger.
Question is in regards to the 2u/1u plays. Do you keep your own 2u record? 
Not bringing it up for the wrong reasons just looking at it from a tailing perspective. Just looking to add a few more plays. 
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#7
Posted: 5/14/2012 1:34:18 PM
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totalguy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#8
Posted: 5/14/2012 1:43:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 1TimeLucky1:

Hey brotha, nice run. 

I also like to mix in a few 1st inning plays and always make sure I'm not going against you before pulling the trigger.
Question is in regards to the 2u/1u plays. Do you keep your own 2u record? 
Not bringing it up for the wrong reasons just looking at it from a tailing perspective. Just looking to add a few more plays. 


I don't keep separate records for 1 vs 2 unit plays.  The larger the overlay when comparing my book's line to my break-even line, the larger the unit play.  Theoretically, each game on the schedule could be a 1, 2 or 3 unit play either way (YES or NO) depending on how soft the book's line is.  But the NO overlays rarely occur at all because the books so drastically favor the YES bettors.
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#9
Posted: 5/14/2012 2:43:33 PM
Thanks guys.  GL with whatever you play tonight.
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fairladyz916 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#10
Posted: 5/14/2012 2:50:00 PM
been following you on and off the last couple days!! waned to say thanks for your picks!!

as for 1TimeLucky1 i did keep track of your 2 unit plays only..cause that's the plays i play only..

here is your record 57-33 = 57.89%


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#11
Posted: 5/14/2012 3:01:48 PM
Thanks for that. However, if the 57-33 record is correct, that comes out to a 63% clip.  If it's helpful to people, I'll go back through my posts for the season and calculate the records and units on the 1,2 and 3 unit plays.
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#12
Posted: 5/14/2012 5:01:34 PM
Thanks for monday's picks. 
Pretty much agree with all your picks except the DET/CWS one; combined 1st inning ERA for the 2 starters is less than 6 (small sample). 
Really like MIL/NYM, HOU/PHI and CIN/ATL. 

Good luck to you.  
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#13
Posted: 5/14/2012 5:08:10 PM
I wish i was getting better value on CIN/ATL.  If it moves to +110, ill unload. Right now only 105 but thats expected as both pitchers 1st inning ERAs are high and the O/U is 8.5. 

I hope it goes down to 8.0 and thus drive the price to 110. 
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#14
Posted: 5/14/2012 5:12:55 PM
lets do this! 
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I-Got-5-On-It
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#15
Posted: 5/14/2012 5:36:21 PM
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totalguy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#16
Posted: 5/14/2012 10:27:15 PM
Finished 5-4 -0.45 units on the night. More plays tomorrow.

GL
Posted using a mobile device.
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TheSituation559
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#17
Posted: 5/15/2012 12:02:16 AM
Early games tomorrow! Hopefully you have an edge for those
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totalguy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#18
Posted: 5/15/2012 6:08:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheSituation559:

Early games tomorrow! Hopefully you have an edge for those


I'm sure there will be some plays on the early games.  As long as you play the right line, over the long haul, you will always have "an edge".
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#19
Posted: 5/15/2012 10:27:01 AM
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