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Author: [Investments] Topic: AIG
sims_key send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#26
Posted: 4/12/2012 3:07:13 PM
AIG didn't even need a bump, but i'll take it.

probably just a matter of time before Buffett jumps in here with some of the other big boys already in it.

ripping right now...33.20.

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#27
Posted: 4/12/2012 3:07:57 PM
up 3.5k today on my calls.
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#28
Posted: 4/12/2012 3:11:50 PM
creeping up on 52 week high, which will be 33.81 tomorrow...might take that out tomorrow.

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#29
Posted: 4/12/2012 3:14:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sims_key:

creeping up on 52 week high, which will be 33.81 tomorrow...might take that out tomorrow.


...or maybe today?

man, this is fun to watch...getting no work done.
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#30
Posted: 4/12/2012 3:21:19 PM
shorts are bailing apparently.

new high after new high.
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#31
Posted: 4/18/2012 2:49:06 PM
another upgrade today...saying book value will be in the $65 range in the next 12 months.  struggling to break thru the 52 week high though.  it will come soon.

still time to get in this cheap stock and ride it.  it's a 1.5x/2x on book value alone (according to many people that i trust in value investing).

not trying to pump...obviously can't pump a stock this massive when you're as small as me....just trying to help people out and celebrate with others when we hit.
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#32
Posted: 4/18/2012 5:19:19 PM
That book value estimation is based off current share count. In reality to convert the USG out of the stock the share count would probably be doubled vs what it is now, so forget 65 book value, cut that in half or even more since we dont know the REAL value of their concoctions of illiquid contracts.


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#33
Posted: 4/19/2012 8:42:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

That book value estimation is based off current share count. In reality to convert the USG out of the stock the share count would probably be doubled vs what it is now, so forget 65 book value, cut that in half or even more since we dont know the REAL value of their concoctions of illiquid contracts.



you're wrong about the full dilution...just as has been done before when the government sells their stake...AIG will buy some/most of it back.  they will always be buyers with excess cash while the stock is trading at a significant discount to book value.  that's one thing i love about this management...they understand that is most advantageous to the investor (and, of course, ultimately for themselves).

you don't think the analysts/value investors/hedge fund managers factor the government selling into their BV calcs?  it's public knowledge that the gov will be gone in less than 12 months.
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#34
Posted: 4/19/2012 12:06:06 PM
sims,

That isnt how it works. A company cannot buy the shares of stock from someone that owns them, they can separately do an open market share buyback but no they cannot buy the shares from the government since they have already been issued and owned.

The only way the company can exchange money for ownership is if the arrangement is set to pay via cash, or a tender offer. Neither is going to be the case here. The government has already went into the open market to sell shares and every time the market front runs the government and smacks the stock down.

I also think you are quite wrong about book value, accounting rules have been modified to save AIG's a$$, allowing value of derivatives to be manipulated. The market for which much of AIG's assets are claimed is very dark and unclear..you have no idea what their assets are worth or the potential liability they hold for the junk they sold and still own.

If the market shared your view about some 65 buck book value and an easy trade, most definitely the stock would not be selling for what it is right now.
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#35
Posted: 4/19/2012 12:37:20 PM
i realize that about buying back shares but AIG will be buying back shares as the gov. sells.  if the government still has around $40 billion or so, AIG has/will have AT LEAST half that in cash to buy back shares...as they said they will.

for cash...see Maiden Lane III sale and upcoming IPO of ILFC as well as sale of AIA stock...around $23 billion is the projected amount.
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#36
Posted: 4/19/2012 12:40:12 PM
we'll just agree to disagree and let the market price over the next 12 months tell us who is right.

i've been calling for low to mid 40's by the end of the year.

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#37
Posted: 4/19/2012 12:54:53 PM
I seem to recall Maiden Lane is an asset owned by the government/Federal Reserve

Why would AIG have this auction? 

In addition to the ownership dilution, the company also owes the government cash.

Maiden Lane

"On Wednesday the New York Fed invited eight dealers to bid on commercial real estate-backed securities from Maiden Lane III, a portfolio of debt it acquired in 2008 as part of the bailout of insurer AIG."
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#38
Posted: 4/19/2012 2:42:26 PM


Learning
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#39
Posted: 4/26/2012 12:28:21 PM
broke thru 52 week high...33.65 and flying.

loving life baby.
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#40
Posted: 4/26/2012 2:46:24 PM
beast mode for AIG...gotta love these days

calls up 136% and climbing.
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#41
Posted: 4/26/2012 4:23:24 PM
news is not that Maiden Lane sold (which i know the treasury owns wallstreet...didn't communicate that well though), but that there was great demand and great pricing...

"I am pleased with the level of interest and the results of this process, especially with the strength of the winning bid, which represents good value for the public and significantly exceeds the original price ML III paid for these assets" 

market anticipating the Fed selling more AIG assets sooner b/c of great pricing, which means the sooner AIG can buy back the Treasury stake, which means the sooner the gov will be gone...and then this stock will fly.

everything working out as planned so far and stock price is starting to reflect it.
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#42
Posted: 4/27/2012 10:53:20 AM
34.13...still ripping.
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#43
Posted: 4/27/2012 1:08:41 PM
34.52 high of day...didn't think it would rise this fast...expecting a consolidation in the upper 33-low 34 range.
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#44
Posted: 4/27/2012 3:21:32 PM
tested 35 and couldn't get thru...not a big deal since it's only up 10% this week.

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#45
Posted: 4/27/2012 3:23:57 PM
sold half of calls today at 160% gain...just because of the quick rise...feel like it's a good time to take some profits in case there is some big profit taking.  will get back in fully if it drops back to the 32-33 level.

really didn't anticipate hitting 35 in april...thought it would be late summer...i'll take it.
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#46
Posted: 5/2/2012 1:51:57 PM
really thought it would drop more than this before earnings tomorrow...maybe we get a sell off after earnings.  holding really strong in the 34's right now.
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#47
Posted: 5/3/2012 5:07:47 PM
...and AIG absolutely crushes earnings.

book value up 8% to $57.

will add the half of the calls i sold back tomorrow if we don't get a pop at the open.
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#48
Posted: 5/3/2012 11:06:30 PM
Crushes earnings?

How much of those earnings came from gain on sale of an asset which was one of their strongest that they sold?

What about core earnings, what were those..when you ex out the gain on sale of assets and all the other non-operation earnings?
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#49
Posted: 5/4/2012 8:08:26 AM
Insurance operations were VERY STRONG compared to last year which is the key long term....going to flip thru the 10Q later...
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#50
Posted: 5/4/2012 9:51:11 AM
I'll add my half back here to my calls at 5.10 and pocket the $3k profit.

20 x Jan 19 2013 AIG 30.0 calls for 5.10
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