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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Werker's NFL Futures
earthWake send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
earthWake
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#76
Posted: 8/22/2012 7:58:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shivaseven:

earthWake: If I can remember correctly, you are a Dolphins fan. What's your take on the decision to go with Tannehill? I haven't had a chance to see him play - college or pros? I thought Matt Moore did a really good job with the FINS last year. He's never been known as a practice player and I heard he didn't look good in camp this year. I guess the coaching staff feels he is a poor fit for the west coast offense.

When they drafted Tannehill I was so-so on him. I felt he should only see time on the field this year if the season was going bad quick. My opinion could not have changed more after seeing everything Ryan Tannehill brings to the table. The first thing you will quickly realize with this guy is he 'looks the part' of a franchise QB. When he drops back in the pocket, it looks very natural. The coaches have been very, very impressed with him in practice (as shown on Hardknocks.) I am also very impressed with the respect he has earned from his teammates already. This team really has the feel of the Ryan Tannehill era beginning.

...With that being said, it is extremely difficult for a rookie QB to come in the league and have instant success. I would argue that rookie QBs have been more successful recently (see Andy Dalton) but each case is unique. Miami's offensive skill positions are loaded with young players, which certainly could slow the progression of Tannehill.

Just because Tannehill is the starter week 1 that he is handed the job for the season. I think the Fins coaches are in a very difficult spot. If Tannehill is struggling and the team is 0-2, how do they not give Garrard and/or Moore a chance to play. All in all I think Tannehill will change a lot of peoples mind very fast, but that remains to be seen.

The O/u of 7 is right on point. After being 0-7 last year and still almost reaching the 7 win mark definitely says something. They will play a lot of close games this year, it just depends on how often the QB position turns the ball over. I really think they can/will go 8-8, but gun to my head I would say 7-9 
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#77
Posted: 8/23/2012 1:30:24 AM

earthWake: Thanks for the feedback. Hey, you said the magic words "close games". I just read a pretty interesting article with regards to the Dolphins' fortunes this year. Below is an excerpt from the article. If you are interested in reading the article I've supplied the link below.

What were the Dolphins like in close games? As is almost always the case with teams who drastically underperform their Pythagorean expectation, Miami was terrible in the tight ones. Although you might only remember that famously awful collapse against Tim Tebow and the Broncos in October, a closer look at the slate shows that Miami was a dismal 2-5 in games decided by one score or fewer. Twenty-five other teams since '78 have also gone 2-5 in those close games; during the following season, they went 90-83 in those same games.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8242889/miami-paper-status-surprise-you

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#78
Posted: 8/23/2012 1:45:01 AM

Few comments:

I agree with the value in Bears @16/1 to win NFC.  Bush and Marshall could be huge pieces assuming the OL and cutler holds up.

I think an AFC team will win the Superbowl this year.

I like the NFL prop bet for any team to go 16-0. pays 25/1 @sportsinteraction.com

Patriots?

Despite the question marks with their defense, that offense will be dominate this year.  All games on the schedule are winnable.

I like Mccoy or Foster as long shots to win the MVP.  I can't see the QB performances repeating from last season.

Sleeper pick TBB to win NFC @75/1.  Maybe they sneak into the playoffs?  I realize this is a long shot but like the QB and the moves they made.

I also listened to the Chad Millman podcast where regression in turnover ratio from season to season is discussed.  Interesting to consider.

 

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#79
Posted: 8/23/2012 2:09:40 AM
Werker, where did you get the 30-1? What books?
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#80
Posted: 8/23/2012 9:24:18 AM
Earthwake, no offense, but how often does a rookie QB and 1st year coach finish at or above .500?  I appreciate your insights and agree they are more informative than my simple statement.  I only think they have the slightest chance of reaching 7 wins because they have a very soft schedule - I think the Jets will be a mess this year so they could split, but probably still only go 1-5 in division.  Yes, I do think they COULD get to 7-9 getting every break and bounce, but that would be the upper limit, and I'm not completely sold on that close game theory.
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#81
Posted: 8/23/2012 4:43:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by howzuck:

Earthwake, no offense, but how often does a rookie QB and 1st year coach finish at or above .500?  I appreciate your insights and agree they are more informative than my simple statement.  I only think they have the slightest chance of reaching 7 wins because they have a very soft schedule - I think the Jets will be a mess this year so they could split, but probably still only go 1-5 in division.  Yes, I do think they COULD get to 7-9 getting every break and bounce, but that would be the upper limit, and I'm not completely sold on that close game theory.

I think they will split the Jets, lose both to the Pats and split the Bills. They were 2-0 vs the Bills last year so I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility for them to win atleast 1.

As for close games, the NFL is full of them. Their is no excuses for not winning close games but I feel this shows that Miami is not the laughing stock that many average NFL fans think. They played some really tough teams well on the road. I just feel that 7-9 is do-able because of their solid D, solid run game and underated O-line. We will see though.

@shiv - I will definitely read that article. Of those 7 'close games' five come to mind off the top of my head. 

- Up 15-0 vs Denver will 4 minutes left (loss)

- Allow the Browns an 80 yard TD drive in the final minutes to trail by 1. They then took the following kick-off to the 50 yard line and couldnt get in FG range.

- Up 19-17 vs Dallas with the ball in the final minutes, can't hold on and lose by 1. (Funnest Dolphins loss I've ever watched though)

- Eli Manning to Cruz who breaks 14 tackles and scores on a 25 yard TD in the final minutes to cap a G-men comeback

- Finally, up 17-0 at NE, obviously blow it and lose by 3 late.

Extremely tough losses, all of those games could have gone either way. Some of the blame lays on the shoulder of Sparano and his need for FGs. I really like Philbins no-nonsense attitude much more than the RA-RA personality of Sparano 
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#82
Posted: 8/23/2012 5:56:11 PM
Wow I just read that article Shiv. I felt like it was me talking throughout the article (if I was a better writer.) Its obvious that guy is a Dolphins fan who was slurping them pretty bad, but he does make some good points. He goes into detail about 'what if's and 'what should have' happened. The projections he talks about do give me some hope though. 

I really liked the line " and serving as an easy joke for lazy sportswriters."  I think that is true for average NFL fans in general. Fins are an easy team to blow off, but a closer look might give you reason for hesitation. Even Werker, who is one of the best NFL minds on here spoke extremely high of them in the second half of the season. 

Inconsistency is a terrible trait to have as a sports teamm (or when betting) on a sports team. That trait is definitely something the Fins have, which makes them a hard team to gauge. IMO there is easier teams in the NFL to read. Not many teams have a realistic chance of going 4-12 or 9-7. In the back of my mind I definitely think David Garrard might have a say on how this season goes for Miami. 

Sorry for the rant I could talk about the Fins all day 
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#83
Posted: 8/23/2012 6:33:59 PM
earthWake: No, problem and I'm looking forward to your take on the FINS as the season progresses. I wish there were more guys who followed their home team closely and gave us detailed reports. As for me, I don't live in an NFL city and my favorite team is the team I'm backing. Good Luck during the season.
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#84
Posted: 9/7/2012 2:48:06 PM

Haven't put any cash up but I've got some ideas rolling around my head. Help me out.

The line on the REDSKINS-SAINTS matchup has dropped from 9.5 to 7.5 and I'm a bit surprised. Maybe the public has been influenced a little bit too much by the offseason turmoil that has been swirling around the SAINTS. How quickly we forget that the Saints have one of the strongest home field advantages in the league. We've got a rookie QB, Griffin, coming into a very difficult situation on the road. It seems there is a consensus that LUCK is the real deal but a lot of wiseguys think it might be a long season for GRIFFIN. So, how about taking a 2 team 6 point teaser: N.O. at -1.5 and ... That's the question who would you tie up with the Saints on the second leg of this bet?

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#85
Posted: 9/7/2012 2:55:26 PM
I just came across an interesting STAT that might be helpful in week one.

HISTORICALLY in week one UNDERS cash in at 58%
LAST YEAR the overs were 12-3-1 in week one but remember this was a lock out year and there might be a regression to the mean this year. So, if you are looking to play TOTALS you might take a long and hard look at some unders first.
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#86
Posted: 9/7/2012 3:23:40 PM

It's WK and I'm already looking at a 3 team teaser. Am I crazy? Can you win in the long run betting these kinds of teasers? If you think I'm crazy, please try and talk me out of it. Here it goes.

SAINTS +2.5 for the aforementioned reasons.

TEXANS -2.5 can't see FINS going into Houston with a rookie qb, new systems on both sides of the ball, a new coaching staff, and one of the worst sets of receivers in the league and keeping it close against an agressive Wade Phillips defense.

EAGLES +.5

I think EAGLES will want to get out of the gate fast this year, who doesn't, because of their poor start last year. Below, is the Eagles record in the last five season openers. Not much to go on there but three out of the four times they were favorites they came up with dominant wins. I just think that Andy Reid with extra preparation time, and the EAGLES regular season post-bye ATS record will bear this out, versus a rookie quarterback will give us a decided advantage.

2011: at STL -4 W  31-13
2010: GBAY +4 20-27
2009: CAR -2.5 W 38-10
2008: STL -8.5 W 38-3
2007: GBY -3 L 13-16

I'm just running some thoughts by you guys and would love to hear YEA or NAY.

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#87
Posted: 9/7/2012 4:51:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shivaseven:

It's WK and I'm already looking at a 3 team teaser. Am I crazy? Can you win in the long run betting these kinds of teasers? If you think I'm crazy, please try and talk me out of it. Here it goes.

SAINTS +2.5 for the aforementioned reasons.

TEXANS -2.5 can't see FINS going into Houston with a rookie qb, new systems on both sides of the ball, a new coaching staff, and one of the worst sets of receivers in the league and keeping it close against an agressive Wade Phillips defense.

EAGLES +.5

I think EAGLES will want to get out of the gate fast this year, who doesn't, because of their poor start last year. Below, is the Eagles record in the last five season openers. Not much to go on there but three out of the four times they were favorites they came up with dominant wins. I just think that Andy Reid with extra preparation time, and the EAGLES regular season post-bye ATS record will bear this out, versus a rookie quarterback will give us a decided advantage.

2011: at STL -4 W  31-13
2010: GBAY +4 20-27
2009: CAR -2.5 W 38-10
2008: STL -8.5 W 38-3
2007: GBY -3 L 13-16

I'm just running some thoughts by you guys and would love to hear YEA or NAY.


I'm really liking a 4 tm 6.5pt teaser that pays +240

- Lions -2.5
- Bears -2.5
- Eagles -2.5
- Saints -1.5

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#88
Posted: 9/7/2012 7:20:09 PM
earthWake: Can't say I disagree with you on any of these picks. Originally, I was looking at a two teamer with Detroit and N.O. but for some reason I'm a little bit nervous about the Lions this year. I hear Delmas is out  and Houston is questionable and didn't practice yesterday. The Lions aren't too deep in the secondary and the last thing they need is two starters missing in game one. Anyways, good luck with the week one actioin.
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#89
Posted: 9/8/2012 3:01:05 PM
Guys, about week 1, I'm about to create my thread, so I'll respond to you there.

I decided to reduce my threshold slightly, so a few more leans changed to plays.

Finals futures list with added plays (all plays are 1 unit unless otherwise noted):

Bears to win the Super Bowl +3000 (.5 units)

Bucs o5 wins -120

Pats u12.5 wins -120 

Bills o7.5 wins -130 

Browns u5.5 wins -140 

Chris Johnson most rushing yards +1500 (.5 units)

Ravens to win the AFC North +155 (2 units)

Cowboys to win the NFC East +400 (.5 units)

Titans to win the AFC South +400 (.5 units)

Bucs to win the NFC South +2000 (.2 units)

Cardinals u7 wins -180

Bears o9.5 wins +105

Colts o5.5 wins +100

Dolphins u6.5 wins -130

Vikings u6 wins -120

Titans o7.5 wins -105
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#90
Posted: 9/8/2012 3:40:20 PM
Werker, I really like the ARZ under 7 especially when you consider that the teams in that division are on the rise and even with SF they split with them last year and won't do better than that this year. Let's face it ARZ is a mess at O.T. and I'm not a big fan of their QBs.

Again, strongly agree with the DOLPHINS under for all the obvious reasons. As for the BILLS, Mario Williams will make everyone around him better and that D.L. has the potential to be monsterous, but having said that NYJ might be the contrarian play this week as the spread has slipped from 6.0 to 2.5 in some shops.

Anyways, could to see you back and hope everyone has a great season this year. I'm looking forward to your picks
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#91
Posted: 9/8/2012 4:41:08 PM

on bills and tb w/ you

FWIW I agree w/ you the pat's line is way high but I don't see much value there .

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