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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: fading hot losers
sergio1994
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#26
Posted: 1/3/2012 9:34:01 PM
10-10

phean is in tonight with AL -4.5 If she gets this, you can continue to fade her at your own risk but she'll be at .500 with this win. no others on the board have a losing record.
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sergio1994
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#27
Posted: 1/4/2012 9:16:39 PM
10-11 

Phean's streak ended tonight with her selection of Duke -7.5 losing outright. oto was another streaker on the fade watch that went down with his pick of Ill/NW over 133.5

12-11 fading these picks after tonight.

We'll have to see how many new streakers there are tomorrow. 
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sergio1994
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#28
Posted: 1/5/2012 8:02:56 PM
how sweet, fresh meat 


anikil: byu/loyola marymount over 153
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sergio1994
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#29
Posted: 1/8/2012 7:34:39 PM
13-11

Eugene likes chicago -127
Posted using a mobile device.
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sergio1994
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#30
Posted: 1/10/2012 2:47:18 PM
14-11 

no one worth fading from the big board today. Guess we can start watching the monthly leaderboard with those that have logged-in 9 straight winners. There, we have:

tjhous: lasalle/penn over 136.5
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sergio1994
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#31
Posted: 1/10/2012 2:58:18 PM
had one more from last night that i forgot to post:

toyowar: LSU+2 

15-11 ytd fading these picks
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sergio1994
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#32
Posted: 1/12/2012 7:54:59 PM
16-11

Didn't get around to checking out yesterdays fades. 


For tonight, Trance, who is one of the monthly leaders so far likes: 

VA/Duke over 129 
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sergio1994
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#33
Posted: 1/14/2012 2:48:19 PM
17-11

one so far today:

junction likes: Den/NE over 50 
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sergio1994
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#34
Posted: 1/15/2012 12:26:36 PM
17-12 

fuzzyface: DEN over 203.5

monthly leaders

trance: NYG+7.5
Junction: Georgia Tech +2 
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sergio1994
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#35
Posted: 1/16/2012 6:49:47 PM
18-14

trance: Baylor/Kansas over 139 
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sergio1994
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#36
Posted: 1/18/2012 2:30:18 PM
19-15 

trance got the win with kansas but lost with yesterday's OK -13 pick 

No updates so far. More streakers need to check in...
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#37
Posted: 1/18/2012 11:49:58 PM
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sergio1994
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#38
Posted: 1/19/2012 8:03:18 PM
m33: Dallas +2.5
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sergio1994
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#39
Posted: 1/19/2012 10:31:59 PM
ewdent: N.O. +9.5 
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sergio1994
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#40
Posted: 1/20/2012 8:03:52 PM
19-17 

streakers staying alive...

m33: Wash -116
ooal: Phx +7 

monthly streaker:

clepto: Carolina +107  
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#41
Posted: 1/20/2012 11:42:54 PM

Question: if you have two losers who have picked opposite sides of a game, what happens? No play?

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sergio1994
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#42
Posted: 1/26/2012 8:15:13 PM
wdt - dunno, I'm just tracking these picks. off-setting picks = no play. 

Good group of streakers right now. not many worth fading. there are 3 tonight:

gdawg: AP/SE Missouri St under 148 
venisse: WM/JMU over 131
ooal: Gonzaga -15
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#43
Posted: 1/27/2012 10:53:05 AM

I have been doing a variation of this system that begins tracking the player at "level 6" but with some filters

* the current streak has to be their longest ever

* the player has to has less than 500 wins all-time

* the player must have less wins than losses

3-0 last night but admittedly I have been hovering around .500 myself with this.

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sergio1994
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#44
Posted: 1/27/2012 3:05:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wdtemacg:

I have been doing a variation of this system that begins tracking the player at "level 6" but with some filters

* the current streak has to be their longest ever

* the player has to has less than 500 wins all-time

* the player must have less wins than losses

3-0 last night but admittedly I have been hovering around .500 myself with this.


20-20 right here with these fades. If I took out one hot loser "phean" this would be a better record. not sure if there are more tweaks to do. still under observation. 



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sergio1994
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#45
Posted: 1/29/2012 9:30:12 PM
Randy1183: OR/OR St Under 151.5

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sergio1994
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#46
Posted: 2/1/2012 2:54:26 PM
20-21

tazman: Massachusetts -4


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sergio1994
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#47
Posted: 2/2/2012 7:57:47 PM
21-21 

dominike:  Den/LAC over 206.5
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