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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA teams with win percent below 425 fade
roundrock9 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#126
Posted: 2/6/2012 10:22:24 PM

if i understood the system properly, sac kings have covered last 5 games ats. they are in the list of low win percentage as mentioned above.

so i am fading them in the next game. winning 6 ats is very rare in this system

btw, all the bets today lost. is that true ?

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#127
Posted: 2/7/2012 9:18:39 AM
any updates for today ?
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ringneck82 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#128
Posted: 2/7/2012 9:42:05 AM
Knox, needless to say, I think you're system needs some work.  You're getting your behind handed to you lately.
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Knoxpoker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#129
Posted: 2/7/2012 6:46:48 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by ringneck82:

Knox, needless to say, I think you're system needs some work.  You're getting your behind handed to you lately.

 

LOL  you got that right ... As they say from my parts ."You are eating the person"  . Thats another way of saying -losing streak.. I will push thru it ..

I am looking for 20 units .no more no less..  I wish I had a system that made 60 units a year .. but I dont ...

If you want to follow thats great ..I assure you i am looking to make 20 units .. It might be a grind along the way , I am ready fo the ride ..... good luck

Tonights plays    results - 2 units

Minnesota -6.5

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glefkb01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#130
Posted: 2/8/2012 6:53:51 AM

Teams under .368 (As of Feb 5)

           Teams         ATS          Current ATS Streak

  1. NJ Nets     (ATS 12-14)  (.308)  lost 3
  2. Toronto      (ATS 14-12)  (,308)  won 3 ***
  3. Detroit       (ATS 9-16) (.231) won 2 ***
  4. Washington(ATS 8-17)  (.200) lost 3
  5. Charlotte    (ATS 9-16)  (.120)  won 2******   
  6. New Orleans (ATS 10-15)  (.160) lost 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

  1. G.S.          (ATS 9-12)   (.364) lost 2
  2. Phoenix       (ATS 9-14)   (.440) won 2
  3. NY Knicks   (ATS 9-15)   (.400)  won 5
  4. Cleveland     (ATS 13-9) (.391) lost 1
  5. Sacremento (ATS 12-13)  (.360)  won 6

TODAYS GAMES 2/8

MIL at TOR

DET at
NJ

LEAN/WATCH GAMES

NY at WAS

 

LAST several  games

2/7 MIL

2/6 WAS , NO

2/4 NJ , NO , GS

2/3 BOS

2/2 POR

1/29 ATL , TOR

1/28 LAL

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#131
Posted: 2/9/2012 6:20:57 AM

Teams under .368 (As of Feb 9)

             Teams         ATS          Current ATS Streak

  1. NJ Nets     (ATS 12-15)  (.296)  lost 4
  2. Toronto      (ATS 14-13)  (,206) lost 1
  3. Detroit       (ATS 10-16) (.259) won 3 ***
  4. Washington(ATS 8-18)  (.192) lost 4
  5. Charlotte    (ATS 9-16)  (.120)  won 2******   
  6. New Orleans (ATS 10-17)  (.154) lost 7
  7. G.S.          (ATS 9-12)   (.364) lost 2
  8. Sacremento (ATS 12-13)  (.360)  won 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

  1. Phoenix       (ATS 9-14)   (.440) won 2
  2. NY Knicks   (ATS 10-15)   (.423)  won 6
  3. Cleveland     (ATS 14-9) (.417) won 1

SAC and GS are back on the follow list.

TODAYS GAMES 2/9

No Games

LEANS/WATCH

OKC at SAC

HOU at PHX

 

LAST several  games

2/8 MIL , NJ

2/7 MIL

2/6 WAS , NO

2/4 NJ , NO , GS

2/3 BOS

2/2 POR

1/29 ATL , TOR

1/28 LAL

1/27 Den , NJ

1/25 NO

1/23 DAL , SA , ATL

1/22 BOS , NJ

1/21 MEM

1/18 BOS , DET , NJ

1/16 ATL   (first post)

 

So this  went 12-4 in Jan to 1-9 in Feb so far?

It seems like there should be some filter about the teams that are playing... in Jan I see alot more top teir teams playing our FADE list vs. in Feb it looks like it is all former FADE teams playing our FADE teams

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BigTenWatto send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#132
Posted: 2/10/2012 10:01:08 AM

Tonight the plays should be Chi -13.5 and NJ +2.5. I think what glef may be getting at in the above post is also what concerns me. What are the odds that really good teams blow out really terrible teams on the road in a shorten/condensed schedule?

Isn't the most likely scenario that Chicago gets up 20 in the late 3rd and early 4th and being on the road, looking ahead to other games, they coast through the 4th and like a football game, give up a "back-door" cover?

-13.5 is a big spread. I think this is where we might be getting burned in this system and it might become even more prevelant as the season progresses and teams get increasingly tired. There is no way Chicago is going to be worried about winning by 15 or 20. They are on the road against a brutal team. They want out without injuries, period.

Might be interesting to watch tonight. My money would be on NJ covering and Chicago not.

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glefkb01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#133
Posted: 2/10/2012 6:56:25 PM

I agree...

add OKC too

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simondjester send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#134
Posted: 2/20/2012 9:05:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:

Teams that are below 425 win percent , will rarely win more than 3 ATS in a row. Last yr you would have been up 27 units . I start the 2 game chase at 2 wins ATS  I play 1 unit first game 2 units second game .. after that I take the 3 unit loss if it does not cover ..

todays play .. (already started )

ATL -10.5

I just back-tested this at Killersports accessing their extensive NBA data base which goes back at least to 1995 from the results of some of my queries.

The website I used is: http://killersports.com/nba.py/query?sid=guest&text=+&=1&submit=query

The query I entered is: WP<42.50 and p:ats margin>0 and p:WP<42.50 and pp:ats margin>0 and pp:WP<42.50 and ppp:ats margin>0 and ppp:WP<42.50

The results: 520-525-16 ATS.  That means roughly half the time a team with a SU WP of less than 42.50 (< .450) at the time of the fourth game won that fourth game ATS after winning ATS its last three in a row when at each of those three games the team had a WP less than 42.50.

So .. of those 520 fourth game ATS wins, what was the result of the sub .450 team's fifth game ATS: 235-231-4.

I don't believe this system works.

If we only care about the team's WP during the fourth game only, the results ATS are: 536-549-18 .. and for the fifth game ATS: 242-241-6.

Again, nothing.

So how was this really for just last season (2010-2011)?

To the first query add "and season = 2010" .. 26-39-1 ATS in the fourth game .. 12-12-0 in the fifth game.  (Note that when the fifth game test results don't add up to the fourth game ATS wins, it's because that team also won SU and its WP exceeded .425.)

The same for 2010 without considering the previous WP in the streak .. 27-41-1 ATS in the fourth game .. 12-12-0 in the fifth game.

Again .. nothing.

Back to the drawing board, I'm afraid.

 

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Air1 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#135
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:34:24 PM
hey simon, i sent a friend request. i was hoping you can teach me how to use the killersports website.
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simondjester send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 2/21/2012 6:08:07 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Air1:

hey simon, i sent a friend request. i was hoping you can teach me how to use the killersports website.

I learned their query by reading their teaching guide: http://killersports.com/NBA/PDF/query_manual.pdf .

Just go to the link I provided in my previous post and use this guide and teach yourself.  That's the best way, I would guess.

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