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Author: [Other] Topic: RooBoy's AFL 2012 Rd6
rooboybaz send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
rooboybaz
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#1
Posted: 5/1/2012 2:57:58 AM
2012 YTD: +0.19units  (11-8 57.89%)

Had an absolutely horrendous
week last week losing all 3 punts i posted and going -5units. Playing the games too early was my major problem and not reading into the games enough. No Sandilands, No play in my opinion. The fact i put 2.5 on that particular game was a bit silly. And if they kicked straight i would have been laughing. Almost got lucky in the end there but it wasnt to be. Hopefully back on the horse this w/e with a few winners. Tbh though it appears to be a really tough week to cap or find any value. I like Port to win at @home but i just cant tell with this Tiger outfit? Are they for real or do they just lift against the bigger opponents?


EARLY LEANS:
Dogs +42.5
Bombers -30.5
Cats -58.5
Swans 1-39 @$2.10
Port @$2.08
Roos +29.5

PLAYING:

ROOS +29.5 1unit@ $1.92

--- Played this game the minute i heard about the news of Kennedy. If you haven't yet, he has been ruled out with an ankle injury which will keep him sidelined for 3months. Kennedy is one of the harder players to replace in the Eagles lineup so not having him available is a major blow. He has been instrumental this season in helping the Eagles maintain a perfect start to the season. Even when he's not kicking goals he is at least taking away the no.1 backman if not requiring 2 players to shut him down. Now do the Eagles have as their no1 target? Darling? No doubting he is a gun and a future star, but i personally believe he isn't ready to be the main target up forward. He excels due to Kennedy being in the lineup and with no Kennedy Jack is going to receive a lot of attention. Last week when Kennedy left the game they struggled against the Tigers allowing them to get back into the contest and barely scraping together a victory by only winning by 10points. Another reason i like the look of a large spread here is due to the weather this week for Perth. Starting Thursday they are forecasting showers which will continue into friday. Then Saturday is 'showers developing' with Sunday and Monday having apparent rain. The way i see this is even if it doesn't rain during the game it would have been raining leading up to it making it a slippery contest. Roos will be hungry for this match as their form has been rather average the last couple of weeks and i feel they will do everything they can to make this a hard contest. I see the Eagles winning this game by about 3 goals.

CATS -58.5 1unit@ $1.92

--- Like the Cats to cover this week against a battling Melbourne. Although Melbourne have managed to lose by respectable margins in the last couple of games, i put that more to who they were playing rather than how they are playing. I dont overly rate the Saints or the Dogs this season (which i have stated in weeks past) and i see when the Dees come up against the Cats they are in for a hammering. Cats disposed of Lions last week in Browns 300th with absolute ease and Melbourne are definitely in for the same treatment. When i capped this game on Sunday night i had Cats winning by 60+ and i wouldn't actually be surprised if they got up by about 100. Geelong will take full advantage of this match up knowing they need to bolster their percentage as they try to get back into the top4. The 4 teams at the top have a minimum percentage of 123 (171%, 149%, 147% & 123%) and Cats will take any game that allows them to close the gap on this difference seriously. Cats by 72


GL 
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#2
Posted: 5/4/2012 1:08:06 AM
DOCKERS  -39.5 2unitS@ $1.92

--- Dockers will be seeking a big win here after being so poor in front of the sticks last week. Also dont be fooled by the Suns impressive performance last week against the Roos. I must admit they were good given there was no Ablett and Risca but not having those players would have made the younger guys feel like they had to step up more then usual. It happens in many sporting codes where a star goes down and then the team magically lifts without them and proves the doubters/punters wrong. That was last week for the Suns and i dont see it carrying onto this week. They have been smashed in most games this year even with Gary out there and the Dockers are a very good side IMO (well a lot better then Brisbane anyway). Dockers will be gunning as soon as the ball is bounced and i think will win by 60+


PIES -581-39.5 .5unitS@ $2.50

--- I originally tipped this game on Monday night as Pies winning it by 27. I do personally believe the Dogs are garbage but im not sold on how the Pies are progressing. They should win and it wouldnt surprise me if they did cover the 39.5 being offered, but judging by form i can see it being closer then it should be. Shaw and Reid being back in is big but the Doggies also welcome back Hargrave and Giansiracusa which are also big inclusions. Still no Daisy for Pies which is a huge blow. Pies by 27
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Luckylunchbox send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#3
Posted: 5/4/2012 1:26:05 AM
GL Buddy
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#4
Posted: 5/4/2012 1:43:12 AM
cheers lucky!!


CORRECTION:

PIES 1-39 .5unitS@ $2.50
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Breadman7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sportingbet.com |
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#5
Posted: 5/4/2012 2:06:29 AM
Bounce back this week mate. GL 
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rooboybaz send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#6
Posted: 5/4/2012 8:20:33 PM
BREAD cheers mate, I really hope so!


On another note: What a friggin idiot that Zman is! Probably had another failed night with the ladies, so decided to go into betting forums and try bash ppl. Clear degenerate.
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#7
Posted: 5/4/2012 9:18:22 PM
agree with your leans but really don't like anything very much at all today.

fremantle and saints ATS were my most preferred.




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#8
Posted: 5/5/2012 1:35:10 AM
SWANS 1-39 .5unitS@ $2.15

--- Swans have definitely done a lot better then i predicted in the early part of this season. I never thought they would be 5-0 and have won games in the fashion they have. They beat the Roos with no Goodes and then smashed Hawks away last week when they were 4goal underdogs. Typically the Swans rarely smash their opponents and due to that i like the 1-39. I realise the Crows have held the wood over Sydney @SCG in recent meetings, but not this year! Swans should get the win at home by about 4goals
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#9
Posted: 5/5/2012 1:58:11 AM
BIO  
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#10
Posted: 5/5/2012 4:04:20 AM
I know it's not good to chase but the Dockers are playing friggin pathetic atm and im filthy at myself

Adding 1.5 more units to the Sydney play. Fingers crossed!!

SWANS 1-39 2units@ $2.15
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#11
Posted: 5/5/2012 5:09:10 AM
BLUES -20.5 (1stQ Line)  2units@ $1.85

--- Qtime lines have been kind to me so i will continue to ride. Apart from last week (v Bulldogs) and rd1 (vSwans) the Giants have been pounded in the 1st quarters of their games. Blues are a quality side this season and even though they are resting Judd and Kruezer i still feel they have way too much class for the developing Giants. And seeing as the 1st quarters appear to be the Giants kyrptonite i will betting against them in this situation.
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Django
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#12
Posted: 5/5/2012 8:52:59 AM
Bad luck on the Swans kind of figures they were due to drop one and given Adelaide's success at the SCG in recent years in retrospect it would have been wiser for us to take the Crows with the 25 point headstart instead of Swans 1-39, it's hit like 5 weeks straight it was destined to fail sooner or later. What can you do though hey

Like that Bluebagger 1q line, might jump on that and the 100+
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#13
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:20:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Django:

Bad luck on the Swans kind of figures they were due to drop one and given Adelaide's success at the SCG in recent years in retrospect it would have been wiser for us to take the Crows with the 25 point headstart instead of Swans 1-39, it's hit like 5 weeks straight it was destined to fail sooner or later. What can you do though hey

Like that Bluebagger 1q line, might jump on that and the 100+


BRUTAL W/E!!!!!
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#14
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:25:17 PM
bounce back week next week
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#15
Posted: 5/6/2012 8:27:35 PM
ROOS +29.5 1unit@ $1.92   

CATS -58.5 1unit@ $1.92   

DOCKERS  -39.5 2unitS@ $1.92   

PIES 1-39 .5unitS@ $2.50  

SWANS 1-39 2units@ $2.15  

BLUES -20.5 (1stQ Line)  2units@ $1.85 

friggin joke of a weekend! Can't believe the luck in some of these results. So hard to win money but so easy to lose it

-5.33 units




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