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Author: [College Football] Topic: Nevada at Southern Mississippi (12/24/2011)
CollegeSharp send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 12/24/2011 10:53:18 AM

Ewillie - is this your 1 appearance of the year in here like my 1 appearance on the pro threads?  lol  Good luck!

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#27
Posted: 12/24/2011 12:37:44 PM
WOW!!!!! line went from 7 --> 8.5 --> 9... THEN back down to 7.5 --> 7... 



what the hell is going on!!! This game isnt that big!!!! there is NFLtoday ... why the crazy line movement? 

im confused. 
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#28
Posted: 12/24/2011 12:41:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CollegeSharp:

Welcome to the college football threads Ewillie!!



Yep, my first appearance in the threads, altho i've been bettin college ball all along.  Unfortunately I'm a UNR homer, my kids are going to UNR and i guess you might say, "familiarity breeds contempt."  Listening to the local talk among the books and others, the "locals" are always bettin against the Pack... Oh well, it's kind of a win-win situation, if the Pack loses, i'm in the money, if they win...hey it's my home team... (if that makes any sense).
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#29
Posted: 12/24/2011 1:22:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ako12n:

WOW!!!!! line went from 7 --> 8.5 --> 9... THEN back down to 7.5 --> 7... 



what the hell is going on!!! This game isnt that big!!!! there is NFLtoday ... why the crazy line movement? 

im confused. 


I posted my pick
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#30
Posted: 12/24/2011 4:06:04 PM
That is a good pick with the information provided...

from the Houston game: 

Rushing: M. Hayes (HOU) - 15 CAR, 50 YDS, 2 TD

Stopped Hayes to only 50yds. 


against UCF: ran 24 times @ 48yds. 

against SMU: ran 24 times @ 157yds - and only gave them 3 points. 

against NAVY: ran 41 times @ 421yds - still won by 18.

against VIRGINIA: ran 40 times @ 153yds - beat an ACC team by 6.

lets hope USM wins by 10+ ..... 

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#31
Posted: 12/24/2011 5:04:40 PM
Vs Houston, Southern Miss had 3 non-offensive scores (which was the MOV). Houston never led, the closest was a 14-14 tie in the 2nd, and they were down by 2 TDs most of the 2nd half. They had to abandon the run, and they really arent a running team anyway. pass 1st, pass 2nd.

vs UCF, they were having Qb issues. Godfrey was out and the backup (a true froshie i believe) was playin in his place. Easy to key on the run. The Knights were still a missed 2-pt conversion away from winning the game.

vs SMU, this was a good win, but Southern Miss was again up by 17 in the 4th, SMU had to abandon the run. SMU had 3 drives end in INT, INT, and a missed FG. Southern Miss also has another pick-6 to put more pressure on the SMU passing game. Of the 150+ the Zach Line did put up, most of the damage was done in a little over 2 1/2 quarters

Navy averaged 10+ yards per carry. The only reason they lost was because they cant play pass D. Austin Davis was a crazy 21-of-23. Nevada plays waaaaaay better pass D than that, if they even come close to half of what Navy averaged they will have a great shot to pull the upset.

Vs the Cavs, Virginia also held Southern Miss to 1.9 YPC and a horrible 10-21 on 2rd downs.
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#32
Posted: 12/24/2011 5:04:54 PM
why the over? nevada's offense is not that great and s.miss defense is especially great this year...nevada can run the pistol all they want it isnt gonna work s.miss will stop it plus the weather will be terrible its currently raining and 25mpg wind gusts....under 64
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#33
Posted: 12/24/2011 5:13:14 PM
nevada +7.5 (bought half)
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#34
Posted: 12/24/2011 5:36:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GoVolsKickSomeA:

***CONTINUED***

 

Nevada doesn’t really use the middle of the field; they tend to suck defenses in with the ground game then attack deep on the edges. The pistol offense features a ground attack that is more potent than anything Southern Miss has seen in a while outside of the service academies, but unlike the option, the pistol really sets up the deep ball where you can expect big lanky Wolfpack WR Rishard Matthews to be licking his chops when he sees single coverage. When the Southern Miss safeties inevitably collapse down to help with the run, Matthews has a considerable size advantage on the outside. He measures 6-2 and somewhere in the 220 range. Both starting Southern Miss CBs are each maybe 5-10, 180 lbs. Factor in wingspan and its more like 6+ inches to go along with 40+ pounds. How effective is this strategy? Southern Miss has a high octane passing offense and a great senior QB, they are completing about 60% of their passes. Nevada checks in at about a 69% percent completion rate, #15 in the nation. And they do not have a Heisman finalist on their roster as do most of the teams ahead of Nevada.

All in all, Nevada might not pass for as many yards as Southern Miss, but make no mistake the Pack is going to be taking their fair shots down field which will either result in big plays for the Pack or lead to more running room for the Nevada ground attack which will lead to longer clock-eating drives. All together, Nevada has 6 guys who have 20+ catches and are also averaging over 12 yards per grab. Southern Miss has only 3 guys who fit that bill.

Southern Miss is getting all the defensive praise from most outlets, but do not discount the Nevada D. Their Pass D is middle-of-the-pack from a yardage standpoint, same as Southern Miss. Nevada allows about 226 per game, Southern Miss about 233. But in other areas Nevada really shines. Pass completion percentage allowed for instance. Nevada is #2 in the nation just a hair behind Alabama at 48.9%. Southern Miss checks in at a still decent but way down the list 58.2% allowed. Both teams still should be able to move the ball on each other through the air, but it would be a mistake to assume that QB Austin Davis and Southern Miss are just going to be able to bomb away at will on Nevada.

And last but not least, there is the Motivation angle, which I see working against Southern Miss in a few different ways.

1)       That Houston win was HUGE for the program, arguably way bigger than any bowl win. Will they be focused? Nevada also could be a bit disappointed after having the WAC title in their hands in early November, but they have had more time to digest things. Southern Miss could still be on cloud 9.

2)       The islands. I believe this is Southern Miss’s first trip to Hawaii? Lots of distractions for young 20-somethings. Nevada plays Hawaii here every other year.

3)       And lastly, Nevada might want to erase some bad memories of their last bowl trip here. They were embarrassed in this very same game 2 years ago and might have extra motivation to skip those luaus.

This should be a fun game with plenty of fireworks. Neither D should be able to completely shut down the other’s offense which should make the game competitive throughout. But I like the big play ability of the Pack air attack just a little bit more, all the moreso with the Nevada rushing advantage. On the other side Southern Miss has really made their season with defensive turnovers, specifically INTs. With Nevada playing a more vertical style than what the Eagles have seen in CUSA play, I think any defensive advantage Southern Miss might have by the numbers will get nerfed a little bit..

At the end of the day, I am gonna mildly call for the upset, 34-31 Nevada



Over analyze.....
So Miss 45
Nevada 31

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#35
Posted: 12/24/2011 5:43:01 PM

lots of folks on so miss

 

I'll take nevada to the  bank  as well as will the bookmakers  ...imho of course

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#36
Posted: 12/24/2011 5:44:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ako12n:

WOW!!!!! line went from 7 --> 8.5 --> 9... THEN back down to 7.5 --> 7... 



what the hell is going on!!! This game isnt that big!!!! there is NFLtoday ... why the crazy line movement? 

im confused. 

The line movement has been insane for this game. In vegas it opened at 5.5, got bet all the way up to 9, now its back down to 7 and still dropping, might hit 6 by kickoff. I don't understand it UNLESS people that got the number early, are middling it when they saw that it went up to 8-9. It's still a very perplexing line with more movement than i've ever seen for a no name bowl game. 
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#37
Posted: 12/24/2011 5:57:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EDDIEW:

lots of folks on so miss

 

I'll take nevada to the  bank  as well as will the bookmakers  ...imho of course

 

"to the bank" a nevada lock, eh...I'll lake So Miss -6...

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#38
Posted: 12/24/2011 6:14:19 PM
I dont think even the weather will be a huge factor as so miss should be able to run on nevada with ease....i already took the over and am just wondering if wolf pack will score now.....we will see....
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#39
Posted: 12/24/2011 6:52:19 PM
GoVols i cant speak for others but i have been on Covers for quite some time now and your write up was the best write up i have read in years. All week i have been leaning on Southern Miss but your points were very informative and accurate(i checked). I see you only have a handful of posts so i hope to be reading your posts more frequently. Thanks again and Happy Holidays to all my Covers Brothers
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#40
Posted: 12/24/2011 6:59:19 PM

34-31..........Wolf Pack

 

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#41
Posted: 12/24/2011 7:22:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by squids:

GoVols i cant speak for others but i have been on Covers for quite some time now and your write up was the best write up i have read in years. All week i have been leaning on Southern Miss but your points were very informative and accurate(i checked). I see you only have a handful of posts so i hope to be reading your posts more frequently. Thanks again and Happy Holidays to all my Covers Brothers


thanks.
long time reader, first time poster (as far as predictions, heres hoping they pan out)
basically i just didnt wanna see the whole world jump off the Southern Miss cliff. Not they they arent a great team, but with potentially too much weight being placed on the CUSA championship, I just that I felt Nevada also had a lot going for them in this matchup that needed some pointing out.
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#42
Posted: 12/24/2011 7:36:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GoVolsKickSomeA:

Vs Houston, Southern Miss had 3 non-offensive scores (which was the MOV). Houston never led, the closest was a 14-14 tie in the 2nd, and they were down by 2 TDs most of the 2nd half. They had to abandon the run, and they really arent a running team anyway. pass 1st, pass 2nd.

vs UCF, they were having Qb issues. Godfrey was out and the backup (a true froshie i believe) was playin in his place. Easy to key on the run. The Knights were still a missed 2-pt conversion away from winning the game.

vs SMU, this was a good win, but Southern Miss was again up by 17 in the 4th, SMU had to abandon the run. SMU had 3 drives end in INT, INT, and a missed FG. Southern Miss also has another pick-6 to put more pressure on the SMU passing game. Of the 150+ the Zach Line did put up, most of the damage was done in a little over 2 1/2 quarters

Navy averaged 10+ yards per carry. The only reason they lost was because they cant play pass D. Austin Davis was a crazy 21-of-23. Nevada plays waaaaaay better pass D than that, if they even come close to half of what Navy averaged they will have a great shot to pull the upset.

Vs the Cavs, Virginia also held Southern Miss to 1.9 YPC and a horrible 10-21 on 2rd downs.
I liked your writeups on this GoVols...did I really just say "GoVols"?? Gonna tail you on this one. From a UK fan to a Vol fan...good luck to us!
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#43
Posted: 12/24/2011 7:41:01 PM
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#44
Posted: 12/24/2011 7:53:52 PM
southern miss -7 for 5 c notes
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#45
Posted: 12/24/2011 8:16:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by squids:

GoVols i cant speak for others but i have been on Covers for quite some time now and your write up was the best write up i have read in years. All week i have been leaning on Southern Miss but your points were very informative and accurate(i checked). I see you only have a handful of posts so i hope to be reading your posts more frequently. Thanks again and Happy Holidays to all my Covers Brothers


First of all..It's Merry Christmas...! ....2nd of all, the write up means nothing if its going to take you off a winning bet.....So. Miss will cover this game easy....ya, it was a novel of irrelevant information misleading to take a weak team which will lose by double digits...come on man.
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#46
Posted: 12/24/2011 8:21:48 PM
it just looks like a discredit to So. Miss's Defense...which that is a part of the game, and so are turnovers....
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#47
Posted: 12/24/2011 11:21:44 PM
Wtf is USM doing punting 4 and 2 on Nevada 42 yard line with 9 minutes to go 4th quarter. No one wants to win.....Great trap game,,
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#48
Posted: 12/25/2011 1:40:08 PM

to the bank" a nevada lock, eh...I'll lake So Miss -6...

 

 

you were lucky ...love to see your next pick

too bad I got 7  ...  folks were getting or laying up to 8 1/2

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#49
Posted: 12/25/2011 7:05:00 PM

7 is a push!  Nice job Nevada and Under backers!


Golden Eagles (moneyline) 

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#50
Posted: 1/16/2013 9:51:42 AM
@GoVols

Now that the NCAAF is over, 
anyway to take down your now defunct office pools please?

They clutter many a covers web page besides my own.

Thanks & CHEERS!
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