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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA RPI SYSTEM |
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riceman003 |
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#1 Posted: 4/30/2012 2:14:10 AM
The system focuses on moneyline play and spread play, however i will post over and under tho that has not thing to do with the system
i do not know how well this works since i cant back test it as i dont have previous RPI data for previous dates. this is not the official release and i am still tracking some stuff and tweaking a few equations here and there for Spread play.
i will post my picks daily, but right now idk how well this system is going to work for the playoffs especially with this stupid memphis game tonight.
here is the excel
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B960g5PPz0MwMUkyaDZsbk1HT0E
and once again TY DEGENGAMBLE AND BETTOR2WIN
NOTE: this system does not guarantee anything in gambling
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riceman003 |
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#2 Posted: 4/30/2012 2:25:01 AM
Unofficial plays - pick at your own risk OKC -6 1/2 Money line Miami
not playing indiana or heats
These are something else i am testing with the system right now ill see how it works: dont pick these plays as its just a way for me to keep track OKC vs Dallas under 200 NY vs Miami over 184 Orlando vs Indiana Over 187
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riceman003 |
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#3 Posted: 4/30/2012 2:44:28 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by riceman003: 4/30/2012 picks
Unofficial plays - pick at your own risk OKC -6 1/2 Money line Miami
not playing indiana or heats
These are something else i am testing with the system right now ill see how it works: dont pick these plays as its just a way for me to keep track OKC vs Dallas under 200 NY vs Miami over 184 Orlando vs Indiana Over 187
if following caution filter if following caution filter
Knicks +9 1/2
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DegenGamble |
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#4 Posted: 4/30/2012 2:49:19 PM |
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riceman003 |
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#5 Posted: 5/1/2012 12:40:04 AM
1-1
Caution Filter
1-2
Looks like theres alot of tweaking needed for the over unders so i wont post them anymore till probably next season
also i have updated the spread play calculations for a better spread plays if following the new calculations could of have been
Regular Filter 2-1 Caution filter 2-2
Tomorrows play will be:
Regular Filter: Chicago -6.5
Caution Filter Chicago -6.5 Atlanta -4
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BG6 |
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#6 Posted: 5/9/2012 9:23:05 AM
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hyvong |
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#7 Posted: 5/9/2012 9:52:30 AM |
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riceman003 |
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#8 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:39:15 AM
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B960g5PPz0Mwa2lEMzI1b05PQ0U
the link is the spread with out the update after the 5/10 game
the system would of went 1-1 today
Denver - Win Celtics- Loss
ALSO i forgot to keep a file of the stats from everyday cause of exams but the second link is from 5/1 and if u used it to follow the play for 5/2 you would of went
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B960g5PPz0MwZW9USXg1SWlfcDQ
1-0 following regular filter Spurs - win 2-0 following caution filter spurs - win indiana - win
also the RPI isnt really working since RPI on espn isnt being updated anymore cause of play offs. so for now its just the spread play.
I will post the plays for 5/11 5/12 and 5/13 game tomorrow once my lines update |
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riceman003 |
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#9 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:51:06 AM
YTD
Regular Filter
2-2
Caution Filter
2-4
also ive realized the spread play becomes more accurate as more games are played so i think its good to skip maybe game 1 and 2 of every new round |
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riceman003 |
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#10 Posted: 5/11/2012 2:13:48 PM
Unofficial play: ML Clippers +113
5/12 plays
Skipping the first few games of a new round
Unofficial: Nuggets + 7.5 Celtics -4
5/13
Skipping the first few games of a new round
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riceman003 |
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#11 Posted: 5/12/2012 1:44:35 AM Regular Filter: 2-2 Caution Filter: 2-4
Unofficial Play Parlay: 0-0 Straight bet: 0-1
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riceman003 |
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#12 Posted: 5/13/2012 12:30:47 PM
Official Play
Regular Filter: none Caution filter: clippers +7.5 -107 1U
Unofficial None
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riceman003 |
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#13 Posted: 5/13/2012 3:56:13 PM also went through my post i realized i counted unofficial play as an official
Official YTD
Regular Filter: 0-1 -1.00U Caution Filter: 1-3 -2.07U
Unofficial Plays: ML Play: 1-1 -.75U Spread Play: 0-3 -3.00U
5/14 Plays
None skipping the first 2 games of the new round
FOR TRACKING PURPOSES ONLY NOT PLAYING
Lakers +8.5 boston -3.5
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riceman003 |
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#14 Posted: 5/13/2012 4:05:15 PM |
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bettor2win |
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#15 Posted: 5/13/2012 4:22:48 PM |
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riceman003 |
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#16 Posted: 5/13/2012 4:54:55 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by bettor2win:
Hot Dam! Riceman! I love the fact you are creating this. I hope this turns out to be something great!!!! I just noticed the thread today. Good luck and start a thread when the new season starts so we can all follow along. Thanks for the props brotha!
THX. i never intended for this to be used for playoffs but since its going on i thought it wouldnt hurt to track and tweak it for the next play offs, and i definitely will start a new thread during the new season. though it seems like urs the rpi and spread play gets more and more accurate as more games are played. so i prob wont post any official plays till each team has 10 games each. |
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bettor2win |
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#17 Posted: 5/13/2012 4:59:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by riceman003:
THX. i never intended for this to be used for playoffs but since its going on i thought it wouldnt hurt to track and tweak it for the next play offs, and i definitely will start a new thread during the new season. though it seems like urs the rpi and spread play gets more and more accurate as more games are played. so i prob wont post any official plays till each team has 10 games each.
Strong work. Tweak it till it breaks! And like a man, put some Duct tape on it.  |
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riceman003 |
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#18 Posted: 5/17/2012 5:16:26 AM
Plays for 5/17 heats -1 1/2 |
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riceman003 |
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#19 Posted: 5/18/2012 2:40:01 PM Official YTD
Regular Filter: 0-1 -2.00U Caution Filter: 1-3 -2.07U
Unofficial Plays: ML Play: 1-1 -.75U Spread Play: 0-3 -3.00U
5/18
Unofficial plays
OKC +2.5 Celtics +2 |
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riceman003 |
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#20 Posted: 5/29/2012 3:23:11 PM Official YTD
Regular Filter: 0-1 -2.00U Caution Filter: 1-3 -2.07U
Unofficial Plays: ML Play: 1-1 -.75U Spread Play: 0-5 -5.00U since my last post okc and celtics both lost. stupid on my part for not following my own filters in the game
anyways ive been on vacation and tracking the plays it seems the spread play is alot more strict during playoffs if following the system. Meaning if the system says the team will be giving 4 points it will generally only give 4 points or they will blow them out of the water.
So today we have spurs at -5.5 when it opened and now its down to 4.5. system says they will only win by 4 points.
For tracking purposes and i will be placing a bet on this i am going to buy points and take
spurs at -3.5 for -135
why dont i just bet against the system and take okc at +4.5? like i said before they its likely that spurs will win the game by more than 4.5 and blow them out of the water |
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riceman003 |
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#21 Posted: 5/30/2012 6:21:10 AM Go Spurs!
Official YTD
Regular Filter: 0-1 -2.00U Caution Filter: 1-3 -2.07U
Unofficial Plays: ML Play: 1-1 -.75U Spread Play: 0-5 -4.26U
5/30/2012 Plays
Once again for tracking purposes
Unofficial:
Spread should be played at -7.5 but if factoring only the playoffs then the spread should be at -4.5
imma buy the points to -4.5 at -230 to test the system
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inthefareast |
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#22 Posted: 5/30/2012 6:52:58 AM |
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riceman003 |
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#23 Posted: 5/31/2012 4:37:10 AM Man such a close game if Wade just made that 2nd free throw at the end 
Official YTD
Regular Filter: 0-1 -2.00U Caution Filter: 1-3 -2.07U
Unofficial Plays: ML Play: 1-1 -.75U Spread Play: 0-6 -5.26U
No plays tomorrow |
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riceman003 |
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#24 Posted: 6/2/2012 5:24:43 PM
OKC -3.5 |
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riceman003 |
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#25 Posted: 6/3/2012 1:41:06 PM |
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