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Author: [College Football] Topic: NCAA College Football WEEK 1
jdnmoney
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#76
Posted: 8/8/2012 11:11:21 PM
GL guys, only 22 days away we are gonna have a killer year...
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jdnmoney
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#77
Posted: 8/9/2012 4:09:46 PM
Season W/L: 0-0-0 +/- 0      
Futures W/L: 0-0-0 +/- 0

Previous Thread: http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101375357
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101381457&page=1

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101375357



Regular Season Wins LOCKED IN       
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Utep UNDER 4.5 (-130)     MONSTER PLAY
Idaho UNDER 4.5 (-170)
Army UNDER 5.5 (-110)

Ohio UNDER 9.5 (+130)
UNLV UNDER 4.5 (-195)
Duke  OVER 3.5 (-190)



ATS Wagers LOCKED IN
(Week 1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marshall +22 (-120)
Washington St +13
UCF -21                   

Texas A&M vs La Tech Over 60
Oklahoma -30
ARK ST vs OREGON OVER 65     MONSTER PLAY   3 UNITS

SMU +13
USC -39
North Texas +45.5

San Jose St +26








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alekomtz
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#78
Posted: 8/10/2012 5:20:08 PM
how many units you won /lost last season? BOL this one
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jdnmoney
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#79
Posted: 8/10/2012 7:08:14 PM
well the LSU vs No Texas game just got a lot more interesting...

tyrann finally got punished for smokin the moon cabbage 
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alekomtz
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#80
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:04:16 PM
BOL jdn, i know how you won last season with 58%, but in unit? do you know the record with units? all plays are 1 unit and if you specify then change the bet right
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jdnmoney
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#81
Posted: 8/14/2012 11:08:03 PM
i won approx. 19 units last year.


nearly every single play will be 1 unit, and i will specify otherwise.


im not a clown who makes 50, 100 unit plays.


all are standard sized plays unless i feel that i have a significant edge and then i will make it a significantly higher play.


only 1 multi-unit play in week 1. Oregon vs Ark. State over 65
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#82
Posted: 8/17/2012 12:42:41 PM
SAN JOSE STATE @ STANFORD
Stanford -25.5
o/u 53.5


San Jose St
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
San Jose returns 6 starters on offense. they are breaking in a new QB, but havent chosen a starter. the battle includes David Fales (juco), dasmen Stewart (very athletic dual threat QB who is very elusive and fast) and Blake Jurich (only a few attempts last year)

San Jose has physical RB Deloen Eskridge who transfered from the U. of Minn. and produced very sucessful numbers in his 2 years playing for the Goofs. (led team in rushing in 2010 and had almost 1200 career yds in the B10.)

San jose returns a good group of WR led by Noel Grigsby who is a top 25-30 WR in college football. LY he had 89 catches for 889 and he had 882 yds in 2010 as a freshman. they also have chandler jones, jabari carr and a stud TE in Ryan Otten. Ryan otten is an NFL Tight End at 6-5 245lbs and he is very versatile, catching passes for 750 yds LY and contributing in the run game.

san jose returns 66 career starts on the OL (average) and are starting 3 Jrs. and 2 Srs. all with experience. while they dont have a starter over 300 lbs on the OL, this group is quick and should allow for plenty of big running plays around the outside. they are also very good in the screen game.

San jose returns a Jr. Kicker, who was the supplementary kicker last year going 2/5 on FGs but had a net 42.8 punting average. he will be asked to do all of the kicking this year. on kickoffs, he had 8 TBs in 65 Kickoffs. 

Defensively the spartans return 5 on D, and they have a very underrated DL, which should have improved numbers. the Linebacking Corp. should be solid as they return 2nd team WAC LB keith smith, along with their 2nd leading tackler from LY in Vince Buhagiar.

the secondary for SJSU should be as good as last years team who only allowed 221 Pass Yds per game. their top interception guy from last year James Orth ( 4 picks, 50 int ret. yards) is back along with experienced corner ronnie yell.
their punter is also thier placekicker and he avg. 42.8 on the net punting average LY.

Stanford.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
stanford returns 6 starters on offense and 7 on Defense.

they obviously lose andrew luck, and look to replace him with Brett Nottingham. (5-8 LY with a TD pass and 78 yds.) Nottingham is unproven as he only played in garbage time.

stanford used a RB by committee last year, but are going to make Stepfan Taylor the feature back this year. he had 242 carries for 1333 last year and 10 tds.

stanford loses their top 4 pass catchers from last year and their leading returning catcher is their full back ryan Hewett (34 catches, 282 yds. also they return a solid TE in Zach Ertz (27 catches for 343) but this is a very inexperienced unit overall and should have significantly less production with the new QB and i would expect minimal continuity right away.

the offensive line for stanford is down their two best OL from last year and only return 37 career starts (weak). this OL will undoubtably give up more sacks this year and thier run average should suffer as well, as their heaviest OL is 308.

the stanford DL has 2 starters back and should be as productive as they were last season. the LB corp returns Jarek Lancaster and Shayne Skov.  they do lose two of thier top 3 tacklers from LY but should have no problem in the P12 sustaining their defensive numbers, although i look for thier run stopping production to decrease.

the stanford secondary is very inexperienced and they project to start a guy at corner in wayne lyons who has never played a snap in college. they lose a 1st team all P12 corner in Delano howell, and their numbers should be about what they were last year in the secondary ( 61.7% comp. percentage, only 3 picks!!)

stanford returns a senior punter and a very solid sophomore kicker.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
my take on the game:
i truely believe stanford will come back down to reality this year. in this game, san jose should be able to load 8 in the box and dare the new QB to beat them, with inexperienced WR's.  i think stanford will score, but they will be long, methodical drives and some might stall and result in FG's. I think San jose will suprise many this year with a very improved offense that should spread the ball around nicely to 4-5 WR's. ( who should all have 30+ catches as seasons end, even with grigsby getting 90+)

i think the spread is way too high. stanford should score about 35 in this game, but i think sanjose will score enough to cover the number. i think the 1st half will be extremely low scoring and with both teams having solid punters, field position will be at a premium.

I like San Jose State +25.5 in this matchup and will call for a 35-16 final.

SJSU +25.5
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#83
Posted: 8/19/2012 9:30:53 PM
Adding this (NOT for or against the record and will NOT count profit or losses at seasons end.)

3 Team ML Parlay
Washington state +400
SMU +310
Western Michigan +290


0.2 Units to win 15.79 Units 


Season W/L: 0-0-0 +/- 0      
Futures W/L: 0-0-0 +/- 0

Previous Thread:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101375357

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01
/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101381457&page=1

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101375357



Regular Season Wins LOCKED IN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Utep UNDER 4.5 (-130)     MONSTER PLAY
Idaho UNDER 4.5 (-170)
Army UNDER 5.5 (-110)

Ohio UNDER 9.5 (+130)
UNLV UNDER 4.5 (-195)
Duke  OVER 3.5 (-190)



WEEK 1 CARD
  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marshall +22 (-120)
Washington St +13
UCF -21                   

Texas A&M vs La Tech Over 60
Oklahoma -30
ARK ST vs OREGON OVER 65     MONSTER PLAY   3 UNITS

SMU +13
USC -39
North Texas +45.5

San Jose St +26
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#84
Posted: 8/19/2012 9:53:58 PM
Do you have a write up coming for SMU JD? I think I may like them plus those points now that Im looking at it just solely off the fact that I think RG3 was the crux of that team. Without them they will not be that same team scoring 60 points here n there and SMU staying within 13 looks pretty good. But I dont know anything about SMU
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jdnmoney
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#85
Posted: 8/19/2012 9:58:36 PM
i will write up the game. . .

unfortunately the line is now 10.5...i locked in almost 2 weeks ago at 13...
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#86
Posted: 8/19/2012 10:46:03 PM
Man what's with all the computer bullies 

Anyways BOL to you this year JD  

Let's win big bro 
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jdnmoney
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#87
Posted: 8/19/2012 10:49:02 PM
SMU @ Baylor
Line: 11 (I have 13)
Total: 60
Date/Time: Sunday, Sept 2nd, 530pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SMU: 3 starters return on offense, 7 on defense
SMU is replacing QB's Kyle Padron and JJ Mcdermott. They elect to line up in the spread offense and use the run and shoot passing scheme which isolates Linebackers and allows for Receivers to choose what route they want to run after the play has started (usually they have 2 or 3 route options Ex. IN, OUT, Hitch)
they are probably going to start Garrett Gilbert, who started 14 games at Texas before quickly realizing that he was a little out of his league. thier backup will be stephen kaiser who has 1 pass attempt in garbage time.

SMU returns RB Zach Line who is extremely physical at 6-1 230 lbs. Line averaged 5.9 a carry LY running for 1224 and 17 TDs out of the spread set. also they will spell line with rishard wimbly who avg. 4.4 ypc LY. they might have the best backfield in CUSA.

the receiving corp for SMU is going to have similar sucess to LY, due to the return of Darius Johnson 79 catches, 1118 and 8 scores. he is very fast and a very legit deep threat. Derrick Thompson has plenty of experience as he grabbed 30 balls LY for 441 and 3 scores. the other 3 guys have 30 catches between them, but they should step up and the passing numbers will be just fine.

SMU only returns 1 on the OL (only 34 career starts return (weak)). although only 1 started last year, others have starting experience and blake mcjungen was granted a 5th year. SMU's season will ride on the continuity of the offensive line, which has 4 guys at 300 lbs. pressure should not be an issue as the majority of SMU's passes are 3 step throws (no drop out of the shotgun) and the ball is released quickly.

smu returns a JR kicker in chase hover (8/10; 38/40 xp)

SMU is inexperienced on the DL as just one starter returns from LY (margus hunt) BUT all three starters on the DL are seniors with game reps under thier belt.

the LB unit is the most experienced they have had in recent history, with 3 seniors starting and 6 upper classmen in the 2 deep.

the secondary is very inexperienced as far as starts go, but 3 are seniors and they should fill in nicely and continue the success of LY (222 pass ypg,) Daniel roundtree is a very physical free safety and the corners (cover) should be put in good situations if the DL and LB's get pressure on the QB as expected.

SMU is movingMike Loftus to punter after he handled kickoffs ly, 13/62 TB's)
overall 5 of the top 6 tacklers are back and should have a solid defensive season once again

SMU has stephen F Austin (weak D-1aa team) after baylor


BAYLOR

Baylor returns 6 starters on offense and 8 on D
Baylor runs the spread, zone running scheme that requires sound QB decision making and 0 hesitance in making the read. they also use a combination of play action pass, spring out, and vertical stretch passing.
Baylor is looking to replace 98% of its total passing yards after the Departure of Robert Griffin #3. they are filling the yield with Nick Florence who was 9/12 with 2 tds and 0 picks LY in garbage time. florence has sat behind RG3 for 3 years waiting for his chance to shine or garbage the bed, and either way he will have a fair shot at both.

Baylor is looking to replace 79% of its rushing offense from last year with RG3 leaving along with Terrance Gannoway. they look to Lache Seastrunk (no logged stats LY) and 2nd stringer Jarred Salubi (very fast) to fill the void.

Baylor does return 4 of their 5 top pass catchers from LY including Terrance WIlliams (59/957/11) Tevin Reese (51/877/7) and Laneer Sampson (42/572/3) so the receivers are in place to have a sucessful passing season, QB willing.

Baylor returns 3 on the offensive line (77 career starts) but the two they lost were very good (C and RG, both 1st Team All B12) the offensive line is very big and physical and the entire 2-deep is 285+ (7/10 over 300) HOW WILL THE LEFT TACKLE HOLD UP? the projected starter has never played a snap in college.

Baylors Defensive line is less experienced with the loss of DT Jean baptise and will replace with Sr. Nick Johnson who saw an average number of snaps LY. the rest of the DL will be a work in progress and their numbers should still be as bad as LY (197 Rush ypg, 5.2 ypc!!)

the LB corp is very good with 5 of their top 6 back including Ahmad Dixon (56 tackles, 3 fumble recoveries)

in the secondary they return 2 studs in Sam Holl and Mike Hicks. also the return of chance casey should help improve on LY's 63% completion percentage and 297 pass YPG given up.

baylor returns spencer roth at punter who avg'd 40.5 ypp and had 6/29 inside the 20.

overall baylor was woeful on defense. they gave up 48(TCU) 31 (Rice) 36(kstate) 55 (A&M) 59 (OKST) 39 (Missori) 30 (Kansas) 38 (oklahoma) 42 (Texas Tech) 56 (Washington)

they are so bad on defense and Must improve or this team will not make a bowl game IMO.


my take on this game is that we have two teams that seem to be mirror images of eachother as to what they stress importance on. these teams like offense. SMU is very efficient on offense and baylor loves the Big play. Both QB's are going to have to play well in this game, as the defenses might not provide much help. the game is in waco which is an advantage to Baylor, but im not sure that SMu will be that rattled. Baylor is 9-0 vs SMU lifetime but the last game was a 28-23 win in 2005 (irrelevant)  i think 13 is way too many points here, as i think the team with the ball last will have the best chance to win. 38-31 someone wins.

really like SMU +13, would play 11
like the over at 60

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#88
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:09:13 PM
Your ml parlay seems like waste of money, I don't think any of them win but they all should cover, might be better to just parlay the spread
Posted using a mobile device.
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#89
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:21:25 PM
im betting the spread on 2 of them already and waiting for WMU to hit 10.

not a waste of money when you have LIVE dogs.



at 78.91 to 1 i think its worth a few bucks.

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#90
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:30:08 PM
at $20 bucks i guess its worth a shot gl bud...but i dont think wash st is a live dog, smu has very little chance beating baylor too imo, wmu is a live dog but just dont see it, they played a mediocre illinois team tight last year with all their weapons they are gone now and illinois d is top 25-30 imo...but like i said gl!
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#91
Posted: 8/19/2012 11:39:54 PM



i feel as though washington state is turning the corner and im not buying the BYU hype.

Im going to need to see more explosiveness from Illinois this year, and i think WMU is very, very good. bill cubit will have the ole broncos well prepared.

Baylor loses so much on offense and their defense was sooooo bad last year, and i see minimal improvement. Smu has just as good a chance as 50/50.

again, is it a longshot yes....

is 78.91/1 worth a few bucks, yes. in my opinion. BOL guy
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#92
Posted: 8/21/2012 11:34:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:



Season W/L: 0-0-0 +/- 0      
Futures W/L: 0-0-0 +/- 0

Previous Thread:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101375357

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101381457&page=1

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101375357



Regular Season Wins LOCKED IN
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Utep UNDER 4.5 (-130)     MONSTER PLAY
Idaho UNDER 4.5 (-170)
Army UNDER 5.5 (-110)

Ohio UNDER 9.5 (+130)
UNLV UNDER 4.5 (-195)
Duke  OVER 3.5 (-190)



WEEK 1 CARD
  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marshall +22 (-120)
Washington St +13
UCF -21                                                   UP TO-23.5

Texas A&M vs La Tech Over 60
Oklahoma -30                                         UP TO -31
ARK ST vs OREGON OVER 65     MONSTER PLAY   3 UNITS

SMU +13                                                  DOWN TO +10.5
USC -39                                                   UP TO -40
North Texas +45.5                                  DOWN TO + 42.5

San Jose St +26


on the right side of some significant line movement...can sometimes be considered a good sign 
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#93
Posted: 8/22/2012 12:13:41 AM
Good luck this year JDN 

Thanks for the great writeups. Only riding OKL with you but nothing against. I might put a .5 unit on USC. I think they will stomp too. BOL!
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#94
Posted: 8/23/2012 10:31:24 PM
TEAM TOTALS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
San Jose state over 13.5
Washington state over 24

half a unit each
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#95
Posted: 8/25/2012 12:58:06 PM
biggest bet of week 1 is Oregon vs Arkansas state over

just moved from 65 to 68 this morning 

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#96
Posted: 8/25/2012 1:06:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

biggest bet of week 1 is Oregon vs Arkansas state over

just moved from 65 to 68 this morning 



jdn, Congrats ! Looks you did good.Just like Christmas,it pays
to shop early.

BOL week 1. (except for your play on SJSU )
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#97
Posted: 8/25/2012 3:18:51 PM
daaaamn it moved up 3 points before I could even view the fuckin total on my account lol. With that being said JDN you still like it over 68? When theres that much of a line movement the line usually covers right?
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#98
Posted: 8/25/2012 4:38:47 PM
I have this total capped at 71.5 

but I think we see 80 points in this one 
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