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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: $50 to $5,000 BATORF chase
neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
neilsy25
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#26
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:07:22 AM

I have actually worked with the 3 game chase.. you would be betting  1% , 11% then 88% .. the math does support this somewhat, if the intent is say just to double your stake, instead of trying to turn $50 into 5k .. The numbers are

favorite wins by one run in about 18% of games

in the 3 game chase you would need about 85 wins or so to double your intial stake

as per the streak calculator found at SBR, there is about a 33% chance of ruin (series length 85,streak length 3, loss probability 18%) ..so basically you are getting paid 1-1 on something that should have odds of about -166 ( i think) ..which, in theory, should be profitable over a large sample..

If i was going to do this, i would probably run 3 or 4 simultaneous chases, therefore if one busts, i still make proift when the other 3 come in. As well,  i would be more selective in games, and try to stick with road faves, which win by 1 run about 1% less of the time, 1% which as per the SBR streak calculator reduces your risk of ruin down to about 17%..

 

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bettor2win
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#27
Posted: 4/13/2012 11:58:00 AM
My first play hit the "18%". Damn! 0-1 already! Im with you on laa/nyy
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Xaviercito send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#28
Posted: 4/13/2012 3:15:38 PM
5-0 for the Yankees during inning 7, sounds good for your all-in bet 
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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#29
Posted: 4/13/2012 3:48:18 PM

 Dodged another bullet...224 to go 

current roll  $108.51

Level 1 bet  12% = 13.02

Giants  -1.5  +120     $7.02 to win  $8.42

Pirates +163    $6 to win  $9.78

 

 

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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
neilsy25
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#30
Posted: 4/13/2012 7:43:48 PM

  223 to go

 

Current roll  $110.93

level 1  12% of $110.93  = $13.31

Goin for the Friday tri-fecta !

Oakland ML +140     $7.00 to win $9.80

Seattle -1.5 +150  $6.31 to win $9.46

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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#31
Posted: 4/14/2012 1:33:08 AM

222 to go 

Current Roll  $114.42

Level 1  12% of 114.42 = 13.73

Saturday

Mets ML  +133     $7.23 to win $9.62

Phillies -1.5  +150   $6.50 to win $9.75

GO SENS GO

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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
neilsy25
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#32
Posted: 4/15/2012 1:43:20 AM

 221 to go 

Current Roll  $117.54

Level 1 bet  12% of 117.54  = $14.10

Sunday

Pirates ML +143  $7.10 to win  $10.15

Giants -1.5  +145    $7 to win $10.15

 

GO SENS GO

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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#33
Posted: 4/15/2012 7:47:17 PM

220 to go 

current roll   $120.69

level 1  12$ of $120.69 = $14.48

Yankees -1.5 +110    $8 to won $8.80

Angels ML +167    +167   $6.48 to win  $10.82

 

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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#34
Posted: 4/16/2012 9:34:52 AM

 219 to go

Current roll  $123.01

Level1  12% of $123.01   = $14.48

 

Braves -1.5 +130      $7.68 to win $9.98

Mets +157        $6.80 to win $10.68

 

 

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neilsy25 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#35
Posted: 4/17/2012 12:48:05 PM

  218 to go

Current Roll   $126.01   

Level 1   12% of $126.01 = $15.12

Washington -1.5 +135    $8 to win $10.80

Houston +158    $7.12 to win  $11.25

 

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BookieCrusher88 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#36
Posted: 4/21/2012 12:40:22 PM
You're still posting plays neilsy?
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