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# \$50 to \$5,000 BATORF chase

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 Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: \$50 to \$5,000 BATORF chase neilsy25 PM neilsy25Joined: Oct 2008Posts: 818 Rookie #26Posted: 4/13/2012 11:07:22 AMI have actually worked with the 3 game chase.. you would be betting  1% , 11% then 88% .. the math does support this somewhat, if the intent is say just to double your stake, instead of trying to turn \$50 into 5k .. The numbers are favorite wins by one run in about 18% of games in the 3 game chase you would need about 85 wins or so to double your intial stake as per the streak calculator found at SBR, there is about a 33% chance of ruin (series length 85,streak length 3, loss probability 18%) ..so basically you are getting paid 1-1 on something that should have odds of about -166 ( i think) ..which, in theory, should be profitable over a large sample.. If i was going to do this, i would probably run 3 or 4 simultaneous chases, therefore if one busts, i still make proift when the other 3 come in. As well,  i would be more selective in games, and try to stick with road faves, which win by 1 run about 1% less of the time, 1% which as per the SBR streak calculator reduces your risk of ruin down to about 17%.. bettor2win PM bettor2winJoined: Dec 2009Posts: 2149 Veteran #27Posted: 4/13/2012 11:58:00 AMMy first play hit the "18%". Damn! 0-1 already! Im with you on laa/nyy Posted using a mobile device. Xaviercito PM XaviercitoJoined: Apr 2010Posts: 16 Prospect #28Posted: 4/13/2012 3:15:38 PM5-0 for the Yankees during inning 7, sounds good for your all-in bet neilsy25 PM neilsy25Joined: Oct 2008Posts: 818 Rookie #29Posted: 4/13/2012 3:48:18 PM Dodged another bullet...224 to go  current roll  \$108.51 Level 1 bet  12% = 13.02 Giants  -1.5  +120     \$7.02 to win  \$8.42 Pirates +163    \$6 to win  \$9.78 neilsy25 PM neilsy25Joined: Oct 2008Posts: 818 Rookie #30Posted: 4/13/2012 7:43:48 PM  223 to go   Current roll  \$110.93 level 1  12% of \$110.93  = \$13.31 Goin for the Friday tri-fecta ! Oakland ML +140     \$7.00 to win \$9.80 Seattle -1.5 +150  \$6.31 to win \$9.46 neilsy25 PM neilsy25Joined: Oct 2008Posts: 818 Rookie #31Posted: 4/14/2012 1:33:08 AM222 to go  Current Roll  \$114.42 Level 1  12% of 114.42 = 13.73 Saturday Mets ML  +133     \$7.23 to win \$9.62 Phillies -1.5  +150   \$6.50 to win \$9.75 GO SENS GO neilsy25 PM neilsy25Joined: Oct 2008Posts: 818 Rookie #32Posted: 4/15/2012 1:43:20 AM 221 to go  Current Roll  \$117.54 Level 1 bet  12% of 117.54  = \$14.10 Sunday Pirates ML +143  \$7.10 to win  \$10.15 Giants -1.5  +145    \$7 to win \$10.15   GO SENS GO neilsy25 PM neilsy25Joined: Oct 2008Posts: 818 Rookie #33Posted: 4/15/2012 7:47:17 PM220 to go  current roll   \$120.69 level 1  12\$ of \$120.69 = \$14.48 Yankees -1.5 +110    \$8 to won \$8.80 Angels ML +167    +167   \$6.48 to win  \$10.82 neilsy25 PM neilsy25Joined: Oct 2008Posts: 818 Rookie #34Posted: 4/16/2012 9:34:52 AM 219 to go Current roll  \$123.01 Level1  12% of \$123.01   = \$14.48   Braves -1.5 +130      \$7.68 to win \$9.98 Mets +157        \$6.80 to win \$10.68 neilsy25 PM neilsy25Joined: Oct 2008Posts: 818 Rookie #35Posted: 4/17/2012 12:48:05 PM  218 to go Current Roll   \$126.01    Level 1   12% of \$126.01 = \$15.12 Washington -1.5 +135    \$8 to win \$10.80 Houston +158    \$7.12 to win  \$11.25 BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88Joined: Dec 2010Posts: 1291 Veteran #36Posted: 4/21/2012 12:40:22 PMYou're still posting plays neilsy?
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