Final Table Plays...

Forum: Poker
Author: [Poker] Topic: Final Table Plays...
rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 11/6/2009 3:35:05 PM
Any of you guys betting on the Final Table tomorrow?

I have the following plays...

Moon to finish in the top 3 (+180, line is currently at -110)
-Hoping he plays solid poker and doesn't try making too many plays. If he does, he will easily finish top 3 with his monster stack.

Ivey to finish 9th (+1400)
Ivey to finish 8th (+1100)
-I know I know, "how can you bet against the best player in the world?" Well yes he is, but he is human. He is pretty much tied for the second short stack and at these prices, you just have to take your chances.


Yes I am betting a guy who has never played a tournament in his life, and yes I am betting against the best player in the world. But poker is still poker, and anybody can win. At the prices I got, they are the right mathematical plays (factoring in the chip counts) win or lose.

GL guys
mmac66 PM mmac66
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Posted: 11/6/2009 5:17:45 PM

I like all your plays....I haven't watched it all but Moon doesn't appear to be doing anything foolish. He seems to be relatively solid and playing pretty basic poker. He should be around for awhile.

 

The Ivey plays are solid as well. Sooner rather than later he is going to be forced to play. Maybe he busts out early......great prices on him for 8th and 9th....

 

GL

mmac66 PM mmac66
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Posted: 11/6/2009 5:19:25 PM
By the way, I have a little on Shulman to win at +650 and top three at +130.....
rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 11/6/2009 5:46:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mmac66:

By the way, I have a little on Shulman to win at +650 and top three at +130.....


What site did you get the top 3 bet at?  Mine only has Moon top 3.
weathersharp PM weathersharp
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Posted: 11/7/2009 1:03:18 AM
Prop: Darvin Moon to outlast Phil

4 units -177

Phil is going to be forced to act early based on his stack.  I see Moon hanging around for awhile for a few eliminations before he gets involved. 
Glmm PM Glmm
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Posted: 11/7/2009 8:08:09 PM

Shulman $50 to win $200

Scaefer (sp?) $25 to win $275

nevadaeasy PM nevadaeasy
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Posted: 11/7/2009 8:27:13 PM

2 players down so far...

Place Player Chip Count
Trend
1st Darvin Moon 59,025,000
-50,000
2nd Eric Buchman 51,975,000
18,400,000
3rd Steven Begleiter 26,375,000
1,900,000
4th Antoine Saout 23,150,000
-650,000
5th Jeff Shulman 16,825,000
-50,000
6th Phil Ivey 9,550,000
-2,150,000
7th Joseph Cada 7,900,000
1,850,000
8th Kevin Schaffel $1,300,228
Busted
9th James Akenhead $1,263,602
Busted

rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 11/7/2009 9:04:58 PM
Has anybody been following the hand by hand? Moon is playing about as bad as you can POSSIBLY play.
weathersharp PM weathersharp
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Posted: 11/8/2009 12:49:27 PM
Anyone giving Moon a chance vs Cada?.  Cada was very lucky in his last 3 all ins basically winning on draws in each.  If Moon can catch some good openers he can eat into Cada's stack.

Moon is at the point where he has nothing to lose as he is guaranteed over 5 mill.  That could go against him though as he doesn't care about the limelight.  In other words taking the 5 mil and going home.


rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 11/8/2009 2:39:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by weathersharp:

Anyone giving Moon a chance vs Cada?.  Cada was very lucky in his last 3 all ins basically winning on draws in each.  If Moon can catch some good openers he can eat into Cada's stack.

Moon is at the point where he has nothing to lose as he is guaranteed over 5 mill.  That could go against him though as he doesn't care about the limelight.  In other words taking the 5 mil and going home.




Did you not follow the hand by hand? Moon hit 2 3 outters in a row to win big pots.

He played some of the WORST poker I have ever seen. Three plays he made were absolutely mind boggling. I heard guys saying that he played the worst player they ever saw at the final table. He just got lucky. Period.
weathersharp PM weathersharp
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Posted: 11/8/2009 5:17:45 PM
No I wasnt following hand by hand.  I just read about Cada on the web.  I heard Moon played pretty crappy in the beginning.

The 5-1 advantage on Ivey with a -172 head to head offering was too good to pass up though.  Guess Im a little lucky though.


rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 11/8/2009 5:20:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by weathersharp:

No I wasnt following hand by hand.  I just read about Cada on the web.  I heard Moon played pretty crappy in the beginning.

The 5-1 advantage on Ivey with a -172 head to head offering was too good to pass up though.  Guess Im a little lucky though.




I posted about this in the other thread....

You did not win the bet yet. The last longer props were -220+. Your bet was only action if one of them WINS the Main Event. If Moon finishes in 2nd, the bet is a push.
weathersharp PM weathersharp
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Posted: 11/8/2009 6:18:02 PM
are you sure ???
If moon had to win the event I would have taken him at +340 to win.


rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 11/8/2009 6:19:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by weathersharp:

are you sure ???
If moon had to win the event I would have taken him at +340 to win.




I'm positive.

And no it's a completely different issue. If you do Moon to win the Main event and he loses, you obviously lose. Your bet insured that you don't lose unless Ivey wins.
angelobruno PM angelobruno
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Posted: 11/8/2009 6:31:58 PM
the biggest winner is bax and sheets because they backed cada for half his earnings and the 10 k buy in is now worth half of 5 or 8 million ....not bad huh
weathersharp PM weathersharp
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Posted: 11/8/2009 6:34:39 PM
Would it make a difference if it is listed as a moneyline wager.  That is how it is listed on Matchbook?.  Not as a Prop.  I cannot find any rules either about this.

Phil Ivey vs Darvin MoonMoney LineDarvin Moon-172

rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 11/8/2009 6:49:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by weathersharp:

Would it make a difference if it is listed as a moneyline wager.  That is how it is listed on Matchbook?.  Not as a Prop.  I cannot find any rules either about this.

Phil Ivey vs Darvin MoonMoney LineDarvin Moon

There was an "info" tab next to the bet and it said what I told you. Call matchbook if you do not believe me.
rangerz2478 PM rangerz2478
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Posted: 11/8/2009 6:50:06 PM
There was an "info" tab next to the bet and it said what I told you. Call matchbook if you do not believe me.
weathersharp PM weathersharp
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Posted: 11/8/2009 6:54:59 PM
Rangerz Thanks for the info...  I would not have made the wager had I read that.  Now I know why -172..


wizardofroz PM wizardofroz
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Posted: 11/9/2009 5:34:12 PM

 The poker "messiah" is out.  I'm crushed to see Phil Ivey eliminated in 7th place, as I am one of his sheep that will never underestimate his supernatural poker playing abilities.  

Also, I am going to agree with the other Phil Ivey sheep that poker is 80% skill (as opposed to 80% luck that I previously erroneously stated), yet try to find a way to spin Phil's bad beat (AK vs AQ) at the same time.  I'm learning the errors of my ways, but I just need to hear the expert analysis from guys like ChanceP on this matter.  I need an Ivey idolizer besides Norm Chad or myself to make sense out of this devastating occurrence.     

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