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Author: [NHL Betting] Topic: I'll give you the holy grail of gambling 1.1 (But......)
metalbill
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#251
Posted: 1/30/2012 1:13:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:

But 99% of you will not be able to follow it.

 

No offense to anyone, but it takes patience and more patience. You can't get into the thrill of making big bucks on every play.  I can honestly say that since I've used internet accounts, I've never tapped out.  I've taken money out at the end of the season.  But that was me just getting the cash. Not tapping out.

We had this discussion last year.  Very good info.  I will actually have people argue that this is not the way to go.  Well, I have math on my side.  Also I have the proof of not putting any money in my internet accounts by tapping since 1996.

First of all.  Lay off the parlays.  UNLESS........You are parlaying two big favs.  That will make them into an even wager or a dog. I see so many people trying to score the huge hit by parlaying 4 or more teams. 

Second.  Just because it's a big fav, doesn't mean they are going to win. There are plenty of upsets in hockey. 

Third. It kind of goes with the first two.  Stay away from the juice. It will just kill ya.  You will notice I will play -1 lines quite a bit.  This gets the big juice plays down to low or no juice.  Also it turns big favs to nice dogs.  You can turn that -150 into a +137.  That's a huge difference.  Yes, you will get some ties.  But that's part of the game.

Fourth......Don't chase.........just don't do it.  Now I have some friends on other boards.  Well, mainly one board that does this.  Sometime down the road you are going to get hit.  It may be awhile.  But one day you will tap out.

Fifth.......Here is really the whole ball of wax here.  This is the grail of it all.

Have your bankroll set.  I mean your whole bankroll.  Just wager a percentage of your bankroll for each game.  Here is what I do.

I wager 2.5% of my bankroll on each game.  I've actually lowered this again this year.  It was 4%, before the lockout.  Then, last year it was 3%. 

 Class...........pay attention.........

Say you start out with......OK.........I will use some real world numbers that most of you probably are using.  You start out with $1000.  Then you decide to take the Bruins and Canes at Even money.

You would wager $25 on both teams.  Say you won both.

Then your bankroll is now $1050.  Now your 2.5% wager would be $26.25 instead of $25. You win your wagers go up.  That's where the snowball starts.  Yeah, you're not going to break the bank at first.  But if you keep winning your wagers will go up.  That's when you should wager more.  But that 99% of people will wager more when they lose.  Exactly backwards.

Now how about if those two $25 wagers lose.  Well your bankroll is down to $950.  So your next wager would be $23.75.  Now this is where the real power of this comes in.  When you are losing, you dig your heels in and make it tough for the book to tap you out. You start to lose you cut your wagers down.  Again, exactly opposite what most people do.

One of the complaints of this is most people say when I get on a winning streak I'm making less money because I'm down a few hundred.  I should be winning $25 or $30 a game instead of $20 or so. 

Well, if you start winning your wagers will start to creep up.  I will bump my percentage up if I'm on a winning streak.  Hell, after the Olympic break a couple of years ago, I I was up to 6% on my wagers in March and the first week of April

If you hit that streak push it a bit.  But make sure your on a streak, not just winning a few games.  If you play like this you will never go broke.  If it's the action your looking for please stop now.  You will be telling a sad story to people.  That's the reason 99% of people can't do this.  It's the action they need.  They don't wager logically.

I know a handful of people in my network that do this.  They are very astute.  They don't play everyday.  The don't force a play.  But they do wager by a percentage of their actual bankroll.

Come on and join this handful. You won't be sorry.

Good skill to everyone this year.  I will be watching.
 
EVERYONE should read this. solid advice Lippsman.
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#252
Posted: 1/30/2012 2:25:44 AM
best write up ive read on here   
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#253
Posted: 1/30/2012 4:08:59 AM
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#254
Posted: 1/30/2012 8:22:09 AM
Very good info.
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#255
Posted: 1/30/2012 9:20:57 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by gomburzago:

what about if you are like 90% sure that a team is going to win or cover the spread? Would it not be justifiable to double the wagering amount?

If you are already up, then your then you already would be wagering more. 

But really, when do you ever think you have a 90% of winning without laying a huge ML of -250 or more.  You already know my thought of laying a ML that large !!!!  In pucks and baseball you PL or RL it.  Or again find another game that you think is a 90% chance of winning and parlay it. 

Anything to get the juice down.

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#256
Posted: 1/30/2012 10:25:33 AM
Excellent information. I have a couple of differences only but concur with pretty much all of it. I don't increase my bet size or decrease it everyday..a little too much minutia for me. I generally flat bet a certain amount and then increase at a certain point when I'm comfortable, although not this season as I've made a couple of sizeable withdrawals. 

Also, I don't decrease my bet size when losing...but I also don't increase it..I keep it stable. I know some may disagree but given I basically play each game for 1 unit (with rare exceptions), I'm of the belief that if I ever drop 25 units at any point which would basically tap me out, I shouldn't be wagering in the first place.

GL to all in the 2nd half


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#257
Posted: 1/30/2012 1:33:17 PM
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#258
Posted: 1/31/2012 5:46:43 AM
well said
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#259
Posted: 2/3/2012 5:28:45 AM
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#260
Posted: 2/3/2012 9:17:38 AM
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#261
Posted: 2/13/2012 10:26:44 AM
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#262
Posted: 2/23/2012 1:51:49 PM

As requested.

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#263
Posted: 2/23/2012 1:55:53 PM
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#264
Posted: 4/25/2012 7:40:47 PM
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#265
Posted: 4/25/2012 9:28:45 PM
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#266
Posted: 5/9/2012 3:23:47 PM
Someone requested this 
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#267
Posted: 5/10/2012 8:18:41 AM

Glad to see it's still helping people.

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#268
Posted: 5/10/2012 8:35:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:

Glad to see it's still helping people.

Lippsman, not to be a hater, because I have a lot of respect for you here.  But, with your money management, how often have you collected?  Or are you basically maintaining close to your initial balance and making no positive progress? 

Hypothetically, I could have a $1000 bankroll like you initially stated, and never have to reload when betting $25 per game.  But after a year or so, my balance may be about the same.  Higher risk equals higher reward, and bankroll management sounds like a fancy term for betting small and taking little risk. 

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#269
Posted: 5/10/2012 8:45:47 AM

"Money management" sounds great, but is inherently flawed to a person that tries to make a living in the brutal world of gambling.  However, it is great for a RECREATIONAL bettor who wants to bet small and always have money in their account.

However, if one is trying to make some serious money betting sports, the time invested with money management wagers does not pay the bills, and is actually self-defeating and a waste of time. 

 

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#270
Posted: 5/10/2012 9:21:45 AM

I collect every single season. The bankroll has been built over decades.  Yes you can wager a higher percenage, but you do risk tapping.  I am a very conservative gambler.

If anyone thinks they are going to make a living gambling they are sadly mistaken. But if you want some nice extra income you have come to the right spot.

And if you are the very few that can make a living gambling then by all means wager 5% or 8% of your bankroll on a game.  But you had better be able to stick with the low juice and pick a good percenage of your games.

 

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#271
Posted: 5/10/2012 9:44:07 PM
worth a try
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#272
Posted: 5/11/2012 9:03:23 AM
ty lippsman very nice write up you are right a very few can make a living at gambling gl in the world
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#273
Posted: 5/12/2012 8:08:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wizardofroz:

"Money management" sounds great, but is inherently flawed to a person that tries to make a living in the brutal world of gambling.  However, it is great for a RECREATIONAL bettor who wants to bet small and always have money in their account.

However, if one is trying to make some serious money betting sports, the time invested with money management wagers does not pay the bills, and is actually self-defeating and a waste of time. 

 

I AGREE WITH YOU 100 %

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#274
Posted: 5/12/2012 8:58:33 AM
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#275
Posted: 5/12/2012 3:12:07 PM
good stuff
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