Messages

Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 2 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NBA Betting] Topic: Sixers/Celtics series
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#26
Posted: 5/12/2012 12:57:10 AM
For comparison's sake, the Clippers were +175 prior to starting their series with the Grizzlies. That series has been amazing so far and well contested.


The oddsmakers believe Philly stands a similar chance against Boston as L.A. did/does against Memphis. Will we a similar type of series here? I really don't think so. 
To have the same line as the Clippers at +175 is overvaluing the Sixers to me. The Sixers are solid, but certainly not with anyone of Paul's caliber. He alone can bring a series price down. The matchups are not as close as the Clips/Grizzlies and though this upcoming series may go to seven games, I don't think it has nearly the same chance as L.A/Memphis. I still think Boston is being noticeably undervalued in this spot.

However, I will likely wait until after Game 1 to make any wager.


quote
mtbaker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
mtbaker
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 9999
Location: British
              Columbia
#27
Posted: 5/12/2012 2:24:20 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Mikado:



Glad there is someone here that watches Philly basketball

Holiday is the real deal.  He definitely has the potential to be an elite guard in this league.  He's just gotta stay aggressive. 

it's great to have another quality poster posting

quote
mtbaker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
mtbaker
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 9999
Location: British
              Columbia
#28
Posted: 5/12/2012 2:25:47 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by stevopa:

Apparently, you missed the point: my bets were winners based on this guys opinions about betting the other way.  Just wanted to clear that up: thanks!

looks like you're gonna have to make ur own picks big guy, the baker train is keeping his picks to himself so you won't be able to fade em and earn some cash

quote
earthWake send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
earthWake
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 5201
Location: United States
#29
Posted: 5/12/2012 10:02:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mikado:



Glad there is someone here that watches Philly basketball

Holiday is the real deal.  He definitely has the potential to be an elite guard in this league.  He's just gotta stay aggressive. 

Holiday is an insane defender but his offense frustrates me from time to time. He is young so I'll over-look that he can be inconsistent but he definitely has the potential to be a star. His shot selection is very questionable on any given night though.

For the Sixers to win this series they will need all 8 guys they play to have a good series. They need to win with team defense, fast break points and a grind it out offense. Hopefully they don't go on big scoring droughts like they have a tendency to do.

I've followed the Sixers very closely and have a very good read on this team. They can definitely give the Celts all they can handle and steal this series. 

For the Sixers to win
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#30
Posted: 5/12/2012 11:33:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:


Holiday is an insane defender but his offense frustrates me from time to time. He is young so I'll over-look that he can be inconsistent but he definitely has the potential to be a star. His shot selection is very questionable on any given night though.

For the Sixers to win this series they will need all 8 guys they play to have a good series. They need to win with team defense, fast break points and a grind it out offense. Hopefully they don't go on big scoring droughts like they have a tendency to do.

I've followed the Sixers very closely and have a very good read on this team. They can definitely give the Celts all they can handle and steal this series. 

For the Sixers to win

Holiday is playing well, but his shot selection leaves a lot to be desired. He can't lead the team in shots taken in this series, as he did against the Bulls. His low assist rate also needs to pick up this series. 4.7 APG won't cut it against Boston(less than Josh Smith).  The Sixers need him to create,  not take Rondo off the dribble or shoot too many 3 pointers. He shot 40% from 3 pt range against Chicago and Rondo is an excellent 3 ball defender. Rondo is also averaging an amazing 3.40 steals per game so far. 

Plus, his recent performance was above average due, significantly, to no Derrick Rose. I would be hesitant to praise him considerably just yet. He will likely not have the same type of series against Rondo as compared to 2nd/3rd tier PG's Watson and Lucas.

The Sixers defense will always be strong to keep them in games, but can they counter Boston in isolation sets? If Pierce and Allen are not healthy, this greatly evens out the iso's of the C's vs the team defense of the Sixers. Iguodala needs to hound Pierce and he is one of the guys who can irritate Pierce with his size and quickness. I don't know if anyone on the Sixers can match up with Garnett---Brand may have to carry the bulk of the load, but I don't trust his slow feet. Maybe Lavoy Allen will have to take some assignments against KG?

Can the Sixers generate easy buckets? I think they can, but how consistently? Guys like Young, Turner and Hawes have to continue to generate some easy offense. Their scoring depth will be essential because the 76ers ranked 18th in the league this season in averaging 0.88 points per play in the half-court. The Celtics can be even more stingy than the depleted Chicago team(especially in the playoffs) and that is worrisome. Chicago was able to shut down Philly for long stretches and I foresee Boston doing the same as the series progresses.

I really believe Boston may not "bring it" for a full 7 games because they know they can win this series(somewhat similar to their losing homecourt advantage to the Hawks without a fight). It may be arrogance and their undoing, but this is Boston's series to lose.


quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#31
Posted: 5/12/2012 2:10:38 PM
The series price is now moving more towards what I expected. On 5dimes, its +205 for Philly and -245 for Boston. Certainly more indicative of what this series should be at, imo.
quote
kaponofor3 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
kaponofor3
Participation Meter
Legend
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 34966
Location: California
#32
Posted: 5/12/2012 4:23:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

Anyone else surprised the Sixers are only at +175 for the series? Boston is at -210.

I thought the price would be a little more inflated to encourage possible Sixers bettors, but this is tremendous value for Celts backers, in my view. 




At that price, absolutely. I think BOS should be closer to -300, -320 or so personally.
quote
earthWake send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
earthWake
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 5201
Location: United States
#33
Posted: 5/12/2012 8:51:33 PM
Looks to me like the Sixers are the more talented team.

I know its early, but Sixers dominated the Celtics a few times during the regular season. Not sure why this thread was so Pro Boston.

quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#34
Posted: 5/13/2012 3:52:51 AM
Sixers played very well tonight and did not get the win. This bodes ill for them as the Celtics did not play consistently the entire game. Was hoping for the Sixers to steal this one and get a better series value on the Celtics. It's now at -340.

Will now wait until after Game 2 to possibly wager. Should be a dogfight.
quote
earthWake send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
earthWake
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 5201
Location: United States
#35
Posted: 5/13/2012 1:23:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

Sixers played very well tonight and did not get the win. This bodes ill for them as the Celtics did not play consistently the entire game. Was hoping for the Sixers to steal this one and get a better series value on the Celtics. It's now at -340.

Will now wait until after Game 2 to possibly wager. Should be a dogfight.

Thats one mans opinion.

My opinion is Sixers played real well for the 1st quarter, and that was it.

Then down the stretch, Boston went like 6-7 in clutch shots. You can't expect Boston to do that every game...Still don't see any value in Boston at all
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#36
Posted: 5/13/2012 1:53:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:


Thats one mans opinion.

My opinion is Sixers played real well for the 1st quarter, and that was it.

Then down the stretch, Boston went like 6-7 in clutch shots. You can't expect Boston to do that every game...Still don't see any value in Boston at all

The Sixers were up by 10 with 11 minutes left in the game. They also were up by 1 with 3 minutes left. They had ample opportunity to win this game, but they just don't have the closers. That will be the difference in this series, in my view. 

quote
earthWake send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
earthWake
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 5201
Location: United States
#37
Posted: 5/13/2012 2:54:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:


The Sixers were up by 10 with 11 minutes left in the game. They also were up by 1 with 3 minutes left. They had ample opportunity to win this game, but they just don't have the closers. That will be the difference in this series, in my view. 


Usually Lou Williams is a closer. He averages among the league lead in 4th quarter points. He just hasn't looked good in the playoffs at all though.

You're right though, I would much rather have Pierce, Allen and Garnett to close out, but Lou Williams is very capable. 

Definitely a game Sixers should have won, so I can see why this bodes well for Boston. 
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#38
Posted: 5/15/2012 3:21:10 PM
Great entire and late game effort by the Sixers D to propel them to victory. Iguodala and Evan Turner hit key shots late.  

I am taking the Celtics -155 for the series. I think the C's win game 3 and I'm not going to get a better price than this.


quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#39
Posted: 5/21/2012 9:54:07 PM
Hope the C's can close it out in the next 2 games.

-155 series wager pending.
quote
mtbaker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
mtbaker
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 9999
Location: British
              Columbia
#40
Posted: 5/25/2012 3:33:33 AM

GL on your Celts series mellow.

There are a couple thoughts I have on Game 7.  In Game 1, the Sixers had the Celts on the brink the whole game but blew it which I think was largely because they hadn't won a big game in that building in a while.  For Game 2 Philly played well again and won a road game.  Game 5 the Sixers had the Celtics in a bad spot as they were up 6 points in the 3rd.  I think the moment really got to Philly that they could take control of the series and they choked and got nervous when Boston fought back.  Game 6, the Celts knew this team was dangerous but they couldn't hold the Sixers off with a 3-point lead.

I think the Sixers know they can win in Boston after Game 2 and have played very good basketball in Beantown this series.  Game 6 win will give them confidence that they can beat the Celts in a big game when the Celts came to play in a big game.  After having experienced/flirting with taking the lead in the series in Game 5, Philly will be more mentally prepared to close it out in Game 7 and not as scared of the moment.  I know the Celts have 2 days off but I honestly think the extra off day is absolutely big for Philly to really prepare themselves for such a big achievement of winning a Game 7.

My capping leans Sixers, but it's very very tough to fade Boston in this situation and although it is tough to see Philly in the 3rd round I feel as though they are a top-3 team that finished the season poorly because of confidence issues.  These confidence issues are now disappearing and their talented team is taking place so they can beat and compete with the Celts.

Lemme know what you think should be a good game and your -155 price on the Celts game 7 ml from your series play is great value.

quote
mtbaker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
mtbaker
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 9999
Location: British
              Columbia
#41
Posted: 5/25/2012 3:35:34 AM
Tope 3 East team I mean
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#42
Posted: 5/25/2012 8:55:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mtbaker:

GL on your Celts series mellow.

There are a couple thoughts I have on Game 7.  In Game 1, the Sixers had the Celts on the brink the whole game but blew it which I think was largely because they hadn't won a big game in that building in a while.  For Game 2 Philly played well again and won a road game.  Game 5 the Sixers had the Celtics in a bad spot as they were up 6 points in the 3rd.  I think the moment really got to Philly that they could take control of the series and they choked and got nervous when Boston fought back.  Game 6, the Celts knew this team was dangerous but they couldn't hold the Sixers off with a 3-point lead.

I think the Sixers know they can win in Boston after Game 2 and have played very good basketball in Beantown this series.  Game 6 win will give them confidence that they can beat the Celts in a big game when the Celts came to play in a big game.  After having experienced/flirting with taking the lead in the series in Game 5, Philly will be more mentally prepared to close it out in Game 7 and not as scared of the moment.  I know the Celts have 2 days off but I honestly think the extra off day is absolutely big for Philly to really prepare themselves for such a big achievement of winning a Game 7.

My capping leans Sixers, but it's very very tough to fade Boston in this situation and although it is tough to see Philly in the 3rd round I feel as though they are a top-3 team that finished the season poorly because of confidence issues.  These confidence issues are now disappearing and their talented team is taking place so they can beat and compete with the Celts.

Lemme know what you think should be a good game and your -155 price on the Celts game 7 ml from your series play is great value.


The Sixers are playing solid basketball. Had they hit their free throws last game, it would easily have been a double digit blowout.
The one thing that has been relatively unexpected and impressive is seeing the Sixers matchup competitively in the paint. They have matched or beaten the Celtics in paint scoring in 5 of the 6 games. These "easier" shots have made up for their poor overall shooting(41% FG and 30% 3 pt). All 8 of their main rotation players can either get to the rim or play down low and they have spread it around nicely, as they did all season. I expected them to be settling for more jumpers, but they are attacking a weak Celtics interior defense and exploiting it with drives and good passing---leading to more free throws.

The Celtics, especially Rondo, appeared unenergized and apathetic at times last game. I still feel like they're playing possum slightly though. They are arrogant in their confidence(not a bad thing), but this will be detrimental if they play Miami. 
We all know Rondo, Pierce and KG will bring some fiery attitude tomorrow. I think those 3 will just be too much for the Sixers. To me, the Sixers aren't quite "there" yet. They have confidence, yes, but I still think this game comes down to who has the closers. The Celtics have multiple closers who can get it done. 
Combined with home court and 2 days rest this should allow the C's to escape with a W, imo. 
The Celtics are 33-9, at home in the playoffs, since the Big 3 joined forces in 2007.


Good luck mtbaker.


quote
earthWake send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
earthWake
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 5201
Location: United States
#43
Posted: 5/25/2012 12:16:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:




Sixers in 7, and then they get swept by the Heat. 

I really hope I'm wrong.

Sixers have a bright future, win or lose they exceeded my expectations for the year. Evan Turner is playing fantastic.

Go Sixers 
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#44
Posted: 5/25/2012 1:55:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:


I really hope I'm wrong.

Sixers have a bright future, win or lose they exceeded my expectations for the year. Evan Turner is playing fantastic.

Go Sixers 

Turner is so much more aggressive and confident this postseason. It's nice to see that the #2 pick is finally coming into his own. 

The Sixers have played beyond any expectations of them this season. If they win tomorrow, it's a tremendous testament to Doug Collins. 

quote
mtbaker send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
mtbaker
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 9999
Location: British
              Columbia
#45
Posted: 5/26/2012 3:19:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:


The Sixers are playing solid basketball. Had they hit their free throws last game, it would easily have been a double digit blowout.
The one thing that has been relatively unexpected and impressive is seeing the Sixers matchup competitively in the paint. They have matched or beaten the Celtics in paint scoring in 5 of the 6 games. These "easier" shots have made up for their poor overall shooting(41% FG and 30% 3 pt). All 8 of their main rotation players can either get to the rim or play down low and they have spread it around nicely, as they did all season. I expected them to be settling for more jumpers, but they are attacking a weak Celtics interior defense and exploiting it with drives and good passing---leading to more free throws.

The Celtics, especially Rondo, appeared unenergized and apathetic at times last game. I still feel like they're playing possum slightly though. They are arrogant in their confidence(not a bad thing), but this will be detrimental if they play Miami. 
We all know Rondo, Pierce and KG will bring some fiery attitude tomorrow. I think those 3 will just be too much for the Sixers. To me, the Sixers aren't quite "there" yet. They have confidence, yes, but I still think this game comes down to who has the closers. The Celtics have multiple closers who can get it done. 
Combined with home court and 2 days rest this should allow the C's to escape with a W, imo. 
The Celtics are 33-9, at home in the playoffs, since the Big 3 joined forces in 2007.


Good luck mtbaker.


Should be a good game I'm gonna sit this one out and enjoy my Devils cash from yesterday.  Hope the C's win I like seein Bah-Ston do well

quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#46
Posted: 5/26/2012 3:50:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mtbaker:

Should be a good game I'm gonna sit this one out and enjoy my Devils cash from yesterday.  Hope the C's win I like seein Bah-Ston do well



Congrats on the Devils.

Should be a beast of a game this evening.



quote
Mad_Skillz123 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Mad_Skillz123
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 13662
Location:
#47
Posted: 5/26/2012 6:03:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:



Congrats on the Devils.

Should be a beast of a game this evening.






over/under?
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#48
Posted: 5/26/2012 6:30:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mad_Skillz123:




over/under?


Lean over 169.5. It all depends on the outside shooting. I think one of these squads shoots well from 3 pt range tonight.

Good luck Mad_Skillz. 
quote
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mellow_wolf
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 3258
Location:
#49
Posted: 5/26/2012 11:35:59 PM


Celtics series win at -155. 


Don't think the Celtics possess much(if any) of a shot winning the Miami series. They look like old, "Uncle Drew"(without the skills) type men. If you are planning to take them I would advise against it. Be very careful, they are not nearly the same team as seasons past. Beating the Sixers in 7 is not any type of an accomplishment. 
The Heat are so much better than Philly.


quote
Forum Index : NBA Betting : Messages Page 2 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.