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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: My Rules of Betting, Volume 1
mattlac3 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mattlac3
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#1
Posted: 4/18/2012 5:12:20 PM

Long time covers fan, first topic I've started.  Throughout the years I have placed way too many sports bets, and have finally figured a few things out...i think.  Here are a few of my rules.  What do you guys think, if you think at all. 

-NEVER flip a coin when you are getting charged any more than 10% vig (ex.  betting on who wins the coin flip at -115)

-There is ALWAYS more value in the under

-future bets have little value, but you can end up with a hedge spot

-look to moneyline NBA dogs, especially at the end of the season when both teams have nothing to play for

-your team wont always be heavily favored, so wait for a good number

-look for better than even money on bets that you think are 50/50

-tease, parlay, and prop bet sparingly

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FrankShades
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FrankShades
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#2
Posted: 4/18/2012 5:24:08 PM
I have to disagree with the favorite teams thing. Really depends who your fav team is. I'm a Yankees fan so my team is always gonna require a premium. I have had success with futures betting but I agree that unless you're taking a longshot it's a poor bet (i.e. - Woods +450 at the Masters. Realistically he shoulda been +2500 so his line had no value whatsoever).
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mattlac3 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mattlac3
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#3
Posted: 4/18/2012 6:25:58 PM
i cant believe a stag responded.  i did  not go there but my father is a proud alumn.  we were at the MAC semis and finals this year up in springfield...they covered for me as dogs against iona and then lost it back in the finals...i thought they could have been dancing...anyways, im glad my team isnt the yankees, as i'd never be able to bet on them considereing they are usually always heavy faves...im a big bruins fan, and hate to bet them as faves of more than -150...if i think they can win a game but it's -150 or more, i usually stay away
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mattlac3 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
mattlac3
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#4
Posted: 4/18/2012 6:31:47 PM

speaking of that tiger bet...i usually hate to lay this much but i have won a bunch of tiger bets in majors, and have never lost one..my book used to have a prop bet where you could take the field against tiger in majors.  you had to lay like 350 or 400 to win 100, something i NEVER do, but i thought the number was fair...would you rather have him to win it at 3.5 to 1, or lay 3.5 to 1 for him NOT to win it? i think im +ev

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FrankShades
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FrankShades
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#5
Posted: 4/18/2012 8:49:11 PM
No kidding! I couldn't make it up there but I watched on ESPN3 until the finals. Injuries caught up with them. Just not enough bodies to play in a game where they were calling no fouls.

For the Tiger bet I think it made sense 6 or so years back. He was light years better than anybody else. I was using this year as an example of how I agree with what you're saying unless you happen to like a public team. Then when you bet your team u'll basically always be laying serious chalk. Tiger is past his prime so this year was a great example of action being based on wagers coming in as opposed to reality. In addition to Tiger being past his prime, the tour is simply better top to bottom then it was then. Not even close. Way more contends. If you did it 5 or 6 years ago in any tournament it was ok IMO. Obviously the results speak for themselves though.
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