Posted: 4/29/2012 2:56:52 PM
Been watching this one get bet at my book and the line was too tempting at over 5.5 +132 to let it pass without a bet.
Both teams are reasonably rested and should be able to skate with some speed today. The Flyers had the league's most prolific offense this year as we saw in their first round series. It just wasn't that series though that showed how they can tick-tack-toe with their passing.
Brodeur is older and while he may be able to stop the permiter shots his ability to move around is dramitically less than it used to be. This is how the Flyers like to score. Many passes, get the goalie moving and nail it. They should be able to continue to do that against the Devils.
The Devils put up 30 or more shots on Flordia in the last 3 games and have scored at least 3 goals in 7 of their past 10 games. They are not as defensive minded as the Devils teams of old, willing to throw that extra forechecker into the play. They should be able to throw a lot of pucks on Bryzgalov and they should be able to net a few.
Over is 19-6-4 in Flyers last 29 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 9-3-1 in Flyers last 13 overall.
Over is 9-3-1 in Flyers last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 6-2-1 in Flyers last 9 vs. Atlantic.
Over is 6-2-1 in Flyers last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in Flyers last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Over is 5-2 in Flyers last 7 home games.
Over is 15-4-8 in Devils last 27 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 3-1-1 in Devils last 5 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
Over is 13-5-8 in Devils last 26 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
We know the Flyers can score, and we've seen the Devils ability to play offense against the Predators. We know that both goalies have the ability to shut the door BUT we know that they also have the ability to fall asleep at the wheel.
I just think that with rest, with the desire to ge the jump on the series and set the tone, this first game will produce many opportunities.
Finally, in the last 6 head to head meetings, these teams have averaged a combined 10.56 power plays a game. If history prevails we should see many odd mann opportunities which aids the over.
Good luck everyone. My money is on the first game of this series to go over 5.5 +132.