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Author: [The Archives] Topic: YANKEES+1.5(-455)
bunny651 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#326
Posted: 8/25/2011 3:26:11 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Paddington:

Just a thought while you are all laughing at someone else's misfortune because they lost playing a system that you don't like....

How is this different from any chase system once you've lost (say) the first 3 even money bets?  You double on each chase, and by the end you're betting (say) $900 to win $100.

The principle is the same; your chances of winning a small amount are very high.  Your chances of losing a large amount are very low, but not non-zero.

It doesn't matter what system you play.  If you can consistently identify bets which are in 'fact' better value than the odds shown you will win in the long term.  So give the guy a break....

First of all, a number of us were not laughing at his mis fortune. We were just pointing out the obvious flaws in his argument or lack thereof. If you have read all his responses, you would know.

He bets more after each loss laying that kind of chalk, so in effect, it only takes 2 losses in row to wipe out his winnings and then some. The difference between that and the chase system you mentioned is that he DOESN'T seem to understand what he's getting himself into.

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#327
Posted: 8/25/2011 5:21:47 AM
This guy's next play is an automatic FADE 
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ogkush
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#328
Posted: 8/25/2011 5:29:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WeMoveLines:

I think this would be less of a big deal if you didn't look like a douche in your avatar..

Same with that douche RyanTRuchie..

This isn't friggin Facebook.


cracked the darn up 
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ogkush
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#329
Posted: 8/25/2011 5:31:09 AM
I would be scared to listen to anyone on this forum , if they all had their faces as avatars  
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#330
Posted: 8/25/2011 5:36:27 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lovethedough:

I won 10 in a row... then lost 1 game...i am 10-1...still up 5.5 games..before the 10 games, i still kicked behind...always made money.  I will go bigger on my next game to make up for the juice.  No big deal..... I am still way ahead, this is no big deal.... i am still ahead.. check my posts... you people are very fucked up.. arguing and what not.... all i am doing is winning... i lost a pick... no big deal... i will get it back.. 

I love all you guys.... good night

I was honestly thinking about you, when i saw the final score today.  How intense must of been for you?? For what 76$ dollars was it? Just imagine it happens again next time you bet it? Then what? All i can say is.. you are the man of the week. 
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#331
Posted: 8/25/2011 5:39:30 AM
You are the dumbest gambler on Covers!
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#332
Posted: 8/25/2011 7:44:49 AM
I hope you learned your lesson. If you didn't than you don't have to read on.  It doesn't matter what teams are involved risking $273 to win $60 is never going to be profitable. You would need to win 5 times for every loss just to show a profit. I am certain you were trying to preserve a streak of 10 wins in row but there is no such thing as a guarentee.  If there were we would all pay the chalk and put thte bookies out of business.
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#333
Posted: 8/25/2011 8:01:36 AM

After reading all the posts I apparently came off nice.  Is it alright if I get a few jabs in too? 

The +1.5 and +2.5 run line are for suckers period.  The ONLY TIME I take a team @ +1.5 is to try and middle a parlay.  Under any other circumstance it is just stupid.  So you were absolutely moronic for betting the +1.5 runline and to assume you were safe on the yankees was the cherry on top.

If you thought the yanks were gonna lose then you should of taken Oakland.  If you didn't like Oakland you should of taken the Yanks straight up.  Even still I never pay -200 on any team (max -140) however you would of saved a couple of units still. 

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#334
Posted: 8/25/2011 8:31:24 AM
man this is classic comedy
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#335
Posted: 8/25/2011 8:33:31 AM
just reading this.
Have only been on covers for 2-3 months and have been reading internet forums really about all kind of things since around 10 years and this might be the best and most well-deserved behind pounding someone ever received on any forum I've ever been on ( and that includes porn forums ).
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#336
Posted: 8/25/2011 8:37:59 AM
Ilovethedough I'm going to pray you dont lose 3-4 in a row
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#337
Posted: 8/25/2011 8:40:22 AM
I haven't  posted in a long time ,but I still follow some people ,poolman,lasvegaslord,istealcable, they usually have a good grasp on things and do well for themselves, BUT OMG , love the dough I have had to come out of the cave to post your an idiot , r u on tilt ? you will lose it all that i will put the house on I will take your action anytime
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#338
Posted: 8/25/2011 8:46:25 AM

Ilovethedough is not a bad cat he is just a little misguided, He would rather state " I am winning money" 12 times on this site rather than actually winning money ...

Ilovethedough, just realize that the only two "air thieves" that support you are dogunder and alcapone... read their comments and look how ignorant and stupid they sound!!  Once dogunder proclaimed the Yanks to be a lock, everyone should of jumped on the A's..

 

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#339
Posted: 8/25/2011 9:09:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stopweeping:

Once dogunder proclaimed the Yanks to be a lock, everyone should of jumped on the A's..

 



funny that he would take the yanks and his name dogunder
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#340
Posted: 8/25/2011 9:23:35 AM
@ilovethedough Why would you even take lines so high..You have to be at least 80-85% right and not go on a losing streak at all to make a profit!!!!

Instead of playing RRLs at heavy prices for teams you feel like are sure to win. You might as well play -1.5 run lines and get juice most of the time.. Instead of risking 273 to win 60..you would just risk anywhere from 50-70 bucks..

mixing a martingale with those high price lines like -445 is a mathematical disaster





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#341
Posted: 8/25/2011 9:25:07 AM
I just read most of this thread. All I have to say is that I wish I had the last 5 minutes of my life back..........
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#342
Posted: 8/25/2011 10:01:08 AM
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#343
Posted: 8/25/2011 10:04:48 AM
By far the absolute worst poster on this site...guy never bets a line under -350 haha
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I-Got-5-On-It send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: PaddyPower.com |
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#344
Posted: 8/25/2011 10:06:52 AM

classic

 I just wish it would have been G&G that started this thread it would have been perfect

even though I'd say Gigi probably had a dime or two on the Yanks +1.5 as well  

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#345
Posted: 8/25/2011 10:14:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by roggoror:

just reading this.
Have only been on covers for 2-3 months and have been reading internet forums really about all kind of things since around 10 years and this might be the best and most well-deserved behind pounding someone ever received on any forum I've ever been on ( and that includes porn forums ).
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#346
Posted: 8/25/2011 10:18:24 AM
I really hope you take the time to go back and read what people are telling you.....I do appreciate your post, as that is what led me to the Oak Reverse RL play that I posted in your thread......You need to be smart, if you are ever to make money in baseball, it is by hitting those +200 dogs, not hitting the -200 favs. GL, I really hope you learned your lesson.
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#347
Posted: 8/25/2011 10:19:05 AM

ILovetheDough, DogUnder, and Buffalo11d

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#348
Posted: 8/25/2011 10:20:32 AM

Sorry, bad link.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IueDj96fhqI&feature=related (ILovetheDough, DogUnder, Buffalo11)

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#349
Posted: 8/25/2011 11:00:39 AM

This should be required reading for anyone who says "the juice doesn't matter if you win."

The juice ALWAYS matters because you are laying it BEFORE you know the outcome of the game.

It amazes me how someone would laugh at the prospect of laying -500 in a game when the line should be -150.  But they have no problem laying -200 if the line should be -150.

 

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#350
Posted: 8/26/2011 10:58:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rangerz2478:



I understand your point but lets think about this logically here...

If -455 is NEVER a smart bet, that would mean fading every single -455 you'd be up money. Obviously high juice books that look like -455/+305 isn't going to work. But if you are using an exchange or a low juice book...

Please explain to me how fading every single -455 bet wouldn't make you money in the long run according to your logic. For arguments sake...

Lets say there are 100 bets over the course of a season at -455.

One guy is taking every single -455.

One guy is taking every single +445. (approx price of an exchange)

One has to be in the red, and one has to be in the black. You are pretty much saying the +445 guy HAS to be the one turning a profit with your logic.

I understand you are taking the idea of "picking sports." Trust me, I do. But under the scenario I presented, there is a winner and there is a loser. Clearly you must think the winner is the +445 player.

And there lies the point I was trying to make. All you +445 players should be rich.

OF COURSE the +455 would be in the black... to not make this very long ill just say this... the odds given by books look something like what you posted and i highlighted in black up there... that is somewhat of a "breakeven-take the juice" odds...

if im playing that +305 at +455 i can guarantee you ill make money fading the -455 

a final record could be something like 22-88  or 22-94 and the +455 would be turning a profit... 

this doesnt happen because you dont get to play -455/+455 because books have to make money

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