Messages

Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages Page 108 of 118 «  106 107 108 109 110   »
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB RPI SYSTEM 2012
glefkb01
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
glefkb01
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2516
Location: Michigan
#2676
Posted: 8/8/2012 6:33:28 PM

SCOTTY84

CIN (A) -125  (B) -220* (C) -600* = -1000ish

LAD (A) -180 (B) -510* (C) pending -240

 

YOU WOULD HAVE TO BET 4100 to break even!!! with both series

quote
slc5610 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com |
slc5610
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 2898
Location: Texas
#2677
Posted: 8/8/2012 6:52:40 PM
dammit part of me wants to roll my cincy losses into dodgers tonight. do we lose 2 c bets in a row?
quote
scotty84 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
scotty84
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 29
Location: Ontario
#2678
Posted: 8/8/2012 6:59:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

SCOTTY84

CIN (A) -125  (B) -220* (C) -600* = -1000ish

LAD (A) -180 (B) -510* (C) pending -240

 

YOU WOULD HAVE TO BET 4100 to break even!!! with both series



my betting units are only $50 and i won both game a's from washington so i have to bet almost 1400 in order to win $1975 ish. gonna be a big sweat for me to say the least
quote
lapi7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
lapi7
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 19
Location:
#2679
Posted: 8/8/2012 7:03:57 PM
There is still a lot of baseball left in the season.
I, personally, would minimize my losses by implementing a labby line or two and recouping my losses slowly. Then I would wager larger units on the A games.
I don't believe that I "MUST" profit a unit for each and every series I play
If I lose the A games I use the upcoming B & C games to recover my losses.
Overall you should come out ahead for the season using this strategy.
quote
slc5610 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetJamaica.com |
slc5610
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 2898
Location: Texas
#2680
Posted: 8/8/2012 7:05:10 PM
explain the labby line
quote
Hookemup send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
Hookemup
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 9
Location: Ontario
#2681
Posted: 8/8/2012 7:05:18 PM
Does anyone have the updated numbers? How many A's B's and C's there were so far? I know there were 2 losses. 
quote
CannedGoods send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
CannedGoods
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 591
Location:
#2682
Posted: 8/8/2012 7:31:36 PM
darn.  Can't BELIEVE Cincy...if I could I'd cut Broxton's balls off and shove him down his friggin throat.
quote
trychome send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
trychome
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 185
Location:
#2683
Posted: 8/8/2012 8:03:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 7pokershark7:

how have u done trychome this year betting with your style because I believe thats the way I would bet it too.

for most of the season, i was using non-aggressive labby lines.  because of all the A game losses, i lost a lot of money, so i recently switched over to martingale, but after todays cin loss, im not sure if i made the right choice.  
quote
speedemon send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
speedemon
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 99
Location:
#2684
Posted: 8/8/2012 8:12:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slc5610:

dammit part of me wants to roll my cincy losses into dodgers tonight. do we lose 2 c bets in a row?


Accept the loss and save the rest of your bankroll. It's so easy to make it back.
quote
glefkb01
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
glefkb01
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2516
Location: Michigan
#2685
Posted: 8/8/2012 8:48:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scotty84:



my betting units are only $50 and i won both game a's from washington so i have to bet almost 1400 in order to win $1975 ish. gonna be a big sweat for me to say the least

like i said....i would have to bet four grand for hundred dollar bets...ur half of that so u would have to bet two grand...

u know there are usually four sweeps every new series....baltimore is well on way to beating seattle.   cincy lost....i really think the dodgers win but it is foolish to play those odds
quote
stickbit send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
stickbit
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 371
Location:
#2686
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:00:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by trychome:


for most of the season, i was using non-aggressive labby lines.  because of all the A game losses, i lost a lot of money, so i recently switched over to martingale, but after todays cin loss, im not sure if i made the right choice.  

trychome...can you give an example of what style labby you were running?  trying to understand how you you lost a lot? I run labby lines too. I see how maybe you didn't do that well with a games not hitting...but losing a lot? 
quote
lapi7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
lapi7
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 19
Location:
#2687
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:01:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slc5610:

explain the labby line

it's kinda difficult to explain in a few lines or a paragraph. It's basically a division and cancellation system...but here...I'll let Wikipedia do the talking...Hope this helps.

The Labouchère system, also called the cancellation system or split martingale, is a gambling strategy used in roulette. The user of such a strategy decides before playing how much money they want to win, and writes down a list of positive numbers that sum to the predetermined amount. With each bet, the player stakes an amount equal to the sum of the first and last numbers on the list. If only one number remains, that number is the amount of the stake. If bet is successful, the two amounts are removed from the list. If the bet is unsuccessful, the amount lost is appended to the end of the list. This process continues until either the list is completely crossed out, at which point the desired amount of money has been won, or until the player runs out of money to wager.[1]

The theory behind this strategy is that since the player is crossing two numbers off of the list (win) for every number added (loss) that the player can complete the list, (crossing out all numbers) thereby winning the desired amount even though the player does not need to win as much as expected for this to occur.

It should be mentioned that the Labouchère System is meant to be applied to even money Roulette propositions such as Even/Odd, Red/Black or 1-18/19-36. When any of these bets are made in the game of Roulette, a spin resulting in a, "0," or, "00," results in a loss, so even though the payout is even money, the odds are clearly not 50/50. The Labouchère System attempts to offset these odds.

If a player were to play any one of the above propositions, there are eighteen individual results which result in a win for that player and (for an American Roulette wheel) twenty individual results that result in a loss for that player. The player has an 18/38 chance of success betting any of the above propositions, which is around 47.37%.

Theoretically, because the player is cancelling out two numbers on the list for every win, and adding only one number for every loss, the player needs to have his proposition come at least 33.34% to eventually complete the list. For example, if the list starts with seven numbers and the player wins five times and loses three (62.5% winning percentage) the list is completed and the player wins the desired amount, if the list starts with seven numbers and the player wins 43,600 times and loses 87,193 times (33.34% winning percentage) the list completes and the player wins.

A formula to understand this is as follows:

     Where x = Number of Wins
     y = Number of Losses
     Z = Numbers Originally on the List

Cont. below



quote
lapi7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
lapi7
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 19
Location:
#2688
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:01:44 PM

When

     ( y + z ) / 2 = X

The result is the list being completed.

Assuming a player bets nothing but black (red/black proposition) and black can be expected to hit 47.37% of the time, but the system only requires that it hit 33.34% of the time, it can be said that black only need hit approximately 70.38% of the time (33.34/47.37) it can generally be expected to in order for the system to prevail.

An obvious downfall to the system is bankroll, because the more losses sustained by the player, the greater the amount being bet on each turn (as well as the greater the amount lost overall) is. Consider the following list:

10 10 20 20 20 10 10

If a player were to bet black and lose four times in a row, the amounts bet would be: $20, $30, $40, and $50. By taking these four consecutive losses, the player has already lost $140 and is betting $60 more on the next bet. Consecutive losses, or an inordinate amount of losses to wins can also cause table limits to come into play.

Occasionally, a player following this system will come to a point where he can no longer make the next bet as demanded by the system due to table limits. One work-around for this problem is simply to move to a higher limit table, or a player can take the next number that should be bet, divide it by two and simply add it to the list twice. The problem with the latter option is that every time a player commits such a play, it will infinitesimally increase the percentage of spins a player must win to complete the system. The reason this is so is because the player is adding two numbers (which both will be crossed out in the event of wins) where only one loss was sustained.

To prove this, if a player were to play the Labouchère System the same way with the exception being that the player always added half of the wager lost to the bottom of the list twice for every wager lost where:

    x = Number of Wins
    y = Number of Losses
    Z = Numbers Originally on the List

When:

    y + (z/2) = x

The result is the list being completed.

The player would actually have to win in excess of 50% of the time (the actual percentage of wins necessary, given x and y, being dependent on z) in order to complete the list, or more than the player could actually be expected to win.

quote
BigBautista91 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
BigBautista91
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 578
Location: Ontario
#2689
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:21:16 PM
darn me sideways dodgers off to a great start. 
quote
BigBautista91 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
BigBautista91
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 578
Location: Ontario
#2690
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:32:30 PM
KEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEMP 
quote
boycali01 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetUS.com |
boycali01
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 3701
Location: California
#2691
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:50:54 PM
cin darn me up today. go lad. 
quote
CannedGoods send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
CannedGoods
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 591
Location:
#2692
Posted: 8/8/2012 11:18:02 PM
lapi7 - What's better in your opinion?  I've always played a Martingale...curious if I should make the switch...
quote
bettor2win
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: M Resort |
bettor2win
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2149
Location: California
#2693
Posted: 8/8/2012 11:31:17 PM
Somebody give me a reach around because I am getting "A" fkd with this RPI system this year.  Freakin CIN loss and now LAD are tied! ZOINKS!!!! I just wanna play my strat-o-matic baseball........
quote
scotty84 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
scotty84
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 29
Location: Ontario
#2694
Posted: 8/9/2012 1:10:48 AM
thank you la dodgers for that win !!! i was sweating hard haha
quote
trychome send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
trychome
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 185
Location:
#2695
Posted: 8/9/2012 4:38:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stickbit:


trychome...can you give an example of what style labby you were running?  trying to understand how you you lost a lot? I run labby lines too. I see how maybe you didn't do that well with a games not hitting...but losing a lot? 

I had separate lines for A, B, and C games.  it was non-aggressive so instead of adding the loss to the last number, i just tacked on the loss by adding a new number at the end of the line.  what ended up happening was that i couldnt cancel out the A game losses because they kept losing.  When it got to B and C games, i would only win a little back because they usually stayed on or near the base unit.  so while im losing hundreds of dollars on A games, i was only getting $10-20 for winning B and C games.  The few times i moved the losses over to the B game, they ended up losing. lol. bad timing i guess.  im down about 27 units at this point. 
quote
BookieCrusher88 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
BookieCrusher88
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 1291
Location:
#2696
Posted: 8/9/2012 9:21:07 AM
I may save my BR and just ride in next year. I'm pretty much down to my starting BR with a few units lost. Seems like a rough year this year. Goodluck fellas!
quote
DegenGamble send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
DegenGamble
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 1052
Location: New Jersey
#2697
Posted: 8/9/2012 11:27:17 AM

Who has the stones to bet CIN today - LOL?

According to the RPI spreadsheet BAL and CIN  are plays today.  personally - I like BAL but I don't have the balls to bet CIN.

quote
glefkb01
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
glefkb01
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2516
Location: Michigan
#2698
Posted: 8/9/2012 12:13:56 PM
i am chasing kc to win one against baltimore....and on paper cincy should crush the cubs....
quote
Cool_Money send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Cool_Money
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 138
Location: Ontario
#2699
Posted: 8/9/2012 12:38:28 PM
I think with this recent loss, the odds of getting another loss before the season ends is very close to zero. So, instead of being fearful I think it is best to be fearless for the last few weeks of the system. I'm strongly considering increasing my unit size to 6%-10% of my bankroll.
quote
Danrules24 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: South Point |
Danrules24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2012
Posts: 3001
Location: Nevada
#2700
Posted: 8/9/2012 12:46:22 PM

Sure the Cincy loss was brutal but if you have been betting a Martingale chase on each series you should be up for the year a decent amount. I started with $50 as a betting unit and upped that to $75 starting with the games on 6/25. Up $3200+ after LA's win last night. Of course, I have spent $3300 on Pepto due to all the big C bets!

I didn't follow B2W's betting on the C game strategy. I figured if a system only loses a couple times a year then betting the C game to make up losses plus 1 unit was the way to go.  

32-1 on $50 chases (some rounding to make the bets an even amount) $1599.75 in wins less $563.50 on LA loss ($1036.25 profit). 43-1 on $75 chases - $3233.49 in wins less $1051.0 on Cincy loss ($2181.99 profit).

 

quote
Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages Page 108 of 118 «  106 107 108 109 110   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.