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[MLB Betting] Topic: Friday 05/04 MLB (YTD 44-37 +14.14) |
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Tone10 |
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#1 Posted: 5/4/2012 11:57:23 AM YTD 44-37 +14.14
CLV (Closing Line Value): +10.58
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +4.21
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Slight step back yesterday. Only winning play was with the Marlins, went down with the Mariners, Diamondbacks, and White Sox.
Lot of home teams on my card today (particularly home dogs). Hope they keep barking. These were posted in my Thursday thread and bet after Cris posted numbers in the afternoon.
Friday 5/4
952 Chicago Cubs +135
956 Pittsburgh Pirates +135
960 Houston Astros +155
962 Colorado Rockies +122
978 Los Angeles Angels -120
979 Minnesota Twins +125
A 3-3 split on this card probably means a one unit pickup, so that's what I'm aiming for. Good luck today everybody. |
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switchwalk |
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#2 Posted: 5/4/2012 12:05:18 PM  Love that cubbies pick
BOL today bud  |
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Kirbs21 |
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#3 Posted: 5/4/2012 12:06:50 PM  |
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Tone10 |
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#4 Posted: 5/4/2012 12:26:22 PM switch, Kirbs
Here's a simple way to spot a terrible opening line.
Taking into account the 30 to 40 cent swing for home field advantage, how does Tim Hudson open at around -135 on the road against Moscoso and the Rockies when he was just -165 AT HOME to the Pirates and Kevin Correia???
So if we take that -135 opening line and give Atlanta home field, I'm supposed to believe Hudson is -175 against the Rockies at home and -165 against the Pirates at home? Correia/Pirates is 10 cents better than Moscoso/Rockies?
Just a terrible opening line... I had this one lined at -105/-105, Rockies +122 was my favorite value bet of the day. |
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MIKECOUU78 |
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#5 Posted: 5/4/2012 12:26:48 PM |
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andreagassi6969 |
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#6 Posted: 5/4/2012 1:05:20 PM  |
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tinfoils |
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#7 Posted: 5/4/2012 1:18:02 PM |
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GiLmo574 |
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#8 Posted: 5/4/2012 1:20:31 PM
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Tone10 |
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#9 Posted: 5/4/2012 1:45:27 PM Mike, AA, tin, Gil
A couple plays already locked in for tomorrow since BetOnline threw some openers out. May add a couple more once Cris posts theirs and some adjustments are made.
Saturday 5/5
Cincinnati Reds EV
Kansas City Royals +150 |
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TopEdgeSports |
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#10 Posted: 5/4/2012 1:46:48 PM |
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timdogs17 |
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#11 Posted: 5/4/2012 1:54:04 PM |
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switchwalk |
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#12 Posted: 5/4/2012 2:06:08 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Tone10: Saturday 5/5
Cincinnati Reds EV
Kansas City Royals +150
Juicy KC number and LOVE that reds price tomorrow 
padres might be worth a look too fish still .187 v lefties 
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mmac66 |
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#13 Posted: 5/4/2012 2:26:48 PM |
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Jose_Reyes |
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#14 Posted: 5/4/2012 3:04:00 PM
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hitterno24 |
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#15 Posted: 5/4/2012 3:46:10 PM |
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#16 Posted: 5/4/2012 3:57:09 PM |
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xbaggypants |
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#17 Posted: 5/4/2012 4:21:33 PM
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