Posted: 4/30/2012 3:12:58 AM
You just have tp pick your spots Bud... Ya can't win 'em all but you can be more consistent if you avoid plays on large fav's and just look for picks that seem to have a fair shot at winning.
I have certain teams that I like to side with and they are consistent for me (but even they lose sometimes). Then thier are certain teams that I go against on a regular basis and do well with (but even they win sometimes).
The other day EVERY fav in the AL lost SU... All of them. Cost me a pretty coin.
I look for solid picks... for Monday, April 30th 2012 there are MULTIPLE hot dog plays (in my opinion).
They are Baltimore(at NYY)... Oakland(at Boston)... and the Dodgers(at Colorado).
The Favs I like are Miami(vs Arizona)... Texas(at Toronto)... Atlanta(vs Pirates)... Detroit(vs KC) and TampaBay(vs Seattle).
I don't OVERTHINK MLB picks... I just look at the ESPN scoreboard for the upcoming games and check the Pitching matchups first(Wins - Losses and ERA)... then the teams home and road records and thier overall record.
I watch the MLB channels highlights each night to keep a good feel for teams.
And that's how I make my decisions. Just look for the best mismatches vs the lines posted and AVOID big favs.
Just try and develope a feel for each team and ignore the lines... they only blind you one way or the other. I pick my teams BEFORE looking at the lines.... and I stick with my slections unless later on I notice some significant information that I feel is important enough to alter my selection... then I will either flip or... usually I just pass on it then.
I use a book... and write down all the teams for that day that I like... and list them in order by less risk to higher risk in my opinion. I add my estimated amount of runs for totals... Then I look at the lines and write them down also. Then I make my selections. At the end of the day I write a "W" or an "L" next to the teams... This way I can track how well my perception is of each team and how well they have done for me. My book looks like it's written in Chinese... ha,ha,ha. But it works for me.
I seriously think that Baltimore...Oakland and the Dodgers ALL win tomorrow as nice dog lines while Miami... Atlanta... Texas... Detroit and TampaBay are decent prices for solid fav plays. Each of my selections here have favorable pitching matchups and the Home vs Road records are very acceptable also.
Good Luck jnemeh