Posted: 2/20/2012 9:05:08 PM
Originally Posted by Knoxpoker
Teams that are below 425 win percent , will rarely win more than 3 ATS in a row. Last yr you would have been up 27 units . I start the 2 game chase at 2 wins ATS I play 1 unit first game 2 units second game .. after that I take the 3 unit loss if it does not cover ..
todays play .. (already started )
I just back-tested this at Killersports accessing their extensive NBA data base which goes back at least to 1995 from the results of some of my queries.
The website I used is: http://killersports.com/nba.py/query?sid=guest&text=+&=1&submit=query
The query I entered is: WP<42.50 and p:ats margin>0 and p:WP<42.50 and pp:ats margin>0 and pp:WP<42.50 and ppp:ats margin>0 and ppp:WP<42.50
The results: 520-525-16 ATS. That means roughly half the time a team with a SU WP of less than 42.50 (< .450) at the time of the fourth game won that fourth game ATS after winning ATS its last three in a row when at each of those three games the team had a WP less than 42.50.
So .. of those 520 fourth game ATS wins, what was the result of the sub .450 team's fifth game ATS: 235-231-4.
I don't believe this system works.
If we only care about the team's WP during the fourth game only, the results ATS are: 536-549-18 .. and for the fifth game ATS: 242-241-6.
So how was this really for just last season (2010-2011)?
To the first query add "and season = 2010" .. 26-39-1 ATS in the fourth game .. 12-12-0 in the fifth game. (Note that when the fifth game test results don't add up to the fourth game ATS wins, it's because that team also won SU and its WP exceeded .425.)
The same for 2010 without considering the previous WP in the streak .. 27-41-1 ATS in the fourth game .. 12-12-0 in the fifth game.
Again .. nothing.
Back to the drawing board, I'm afraid.