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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Modified RIZZ system?
glefkb01
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glefkb01
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#1
Posted: 1/8/2012 7:30:07 PM

Anyone been following theRizz NHL system?

I have and its been good, but I was wondering how to get more games, because theRizz system provides maybe 4-5 games a month.   

So, while looking at the season upon us...

  • NJ (10/8 Lost, won)(11/5 won) (1/4 lost, won)
  • NYI (10/8 lost, won)(10/29 lost, lost won) (11/15 lost, won) (12/6 won)
  • NYR (10/27 lost, lost, won)(12/22 won)
  • PHI (10/20 lost, lost, won) (1/2 lost won)
  • Pit (10/11 won) (11/21 won) (1/6 lost, lost, pending)
  • CHI (10/8 won) (12/21 won)
  • CLB (11/10 lost, won) (12/8 lost lost won)
  • DET (11/1 lost lost won)
  • NAS (10/25 lost, won) (11/12 lost, won) (12/10 won) (1/1 won)
  • STL (11/8 won) (12/3 lost, won) (1/3 won)
  • BOS (10/6 lost, won) (10/18 lost, won) (11/7 won) (1/5 won)
  • BUF (10/25 lost, won) (11/26 won) (12/7 lost, won)
  • MON (10/13 lost, lost, lost) (10/22 lost, lost, won) (12/13 won)
  • OTT (10/18 lost, won) (11/4 lost, lost lost) (12/14 lost won)
  • TOR (10/18 won) (12/17 lost lost won) (1/3 won)
  • CAL (10/18 won) (12/6 won)
  • COL (10/28 lost won) (11/18 won)(12/17 won)
  • EDM (10/20 lost won) (11/28 lost lost won)
  • MIN (10/13 won) (11/17 won)
  • VAN (10/18 lost, won) (11/13 won) (11/29 won) (12/19 won)
  • CAR (11/1 won) (11/29 lost lost lost) (12/21 lost won)
  • FLA (10/31 lost lost lost) (11/19 wown) (12/13 lost won) (12/27 won)
  • TB (10/17 lost won) (11/17 won) (12/27 won)
  • WAS (11/21 won) (11/29 won) (12/1 won)
  • WIN (11/14 won) (11/29 lost won) (12/13 won)
  • ANA (10/8 won) (11/9 lost won) (11/25 lost lost won) (12/29 lost lost lost)
  • DAL (10/10 won) (10/27 lost won) (11/19 lost won) (12/9 won) (12/29 Lost, won)
  • LAK (11/8 won) (11/26 lost won) (12/31 won)
  • PHX (10/15 won) (10/25 lost won) (11/3 lost won) (11/23 won)
  • SJ (11/3 won) (12/1 won) (12/15 won) (1/5 won)

 

As we can see (if you can understand the above) if we chased every 3+ home stand with no filters we would have been

 90-5 (94%) ytd

A games 46-44 (51%)

B games 28-15 (65%)

C games 9-5 (65%)

The "A" game percentage sucks, so that is where theRizz original system comes into play.

Filter the A games with therizz:

--Wait for a NHL team to have a homestand of 3 games or more.

--If the odds for Game 1 of the homestand is -145 or higher it triggers a 3 game chase

I am also gonna play the games that didnt qualify but only in Game 2 and chase for 2 games.

I started a new thread because I dont wanna interfere with therizz or anyone who may think this is silly.   The strategy is simple... home ice in the NHL does mean something.   TheRizz system is undefeated this season in all its chases.

so today as with theRizz thread the play would be:

Chicago "b" game
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#2
Posted: 1/8/2012 10:06:30 PM
nice work man, i bet you will do well! 
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#3
Posted: 1/9/2012 12:25:02 PM
excellent work glef,  I'm going to try a labby line on the (unofficial) B, C games and see what happens.

BOL 


Penguins would be a game C tomorrow
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glefkb01
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#4
Posted: 1/9/2012 7:18:29 PM

January Series

  • 1/1 NAS
  • 1/2 PHI DNQ (lost)
  • 1/3 TOR DNQ(won), STL
  • 1/4 MON DNQ (won) 
  • 1/5 BOS (modified PHI game 2 WON)
  • 1/6 PITT DNQ - lost,  CHI lost
  • 1/7 CAL DNQ - won (modified PIT game 2 lost)
  • 1/8 CHI game B lost
  • 1/9 FLA DNQ
  • 1/10 NYI
  • 1/11 WAS, EDM
  • 1/12 DET, STL
  • 1/13 CLB
  • 1/14 TOR, MON
  • 1/15 CHI, VAN
  • 1/17 NJ
  • 1/18 ANA
  • 1/19 LAK, PHX
  • 1/24 TB, FLA, CAL
  • ALL STAR BREAK WEEKEND
  • 1/31 BOS, PHI

Month to date:

Rizz  series 2-0

  1. pending CHICAGO game "C" tomorrow

Modified Rizz series 3-0

  1. pending Chicago game "C" tomorrow
  2. pending Pitt game "B" tomorrow                                (series started 1/6        it didnt qualify for RIZZ and lost game 1.  begin chase for game 2, and game 3.   it lost game 2, so play would be to play them big for game 3)
  3. FLORIDA, if they lose tonight we will play them in game 2  if they win no chase.
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#5
Posted: 1/9/2012 8:00:55 PM
Yes, good work.  I don't know how many plays this would filter out, but if you just used a filter like: first game home team can't be an outright underdog or home team in say bottom 5 RPI, that would have filtered out 3 of the losses, leaving only MTL and FLO.  I know I haven't been posting as often as I'd like in therizz's thread.   I'm going to try to keep up with it better, although it really helps when other people post as well.
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glefkb01
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#6
Posted: 1/10/2012 4:58:10 PM

Florida took care of Vancouver last night so no extra games there...

Todays  plays same with the RIZZ is CHICAGO and the huge juice and the modified Pit Game "B"

 

**  NYI did not make Rizz's system...if they lose tonight we start chasing next game

 
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#7
Posted: 1/10/2012 8:01:13 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by glefkb01]

Anyone been following theRizz NHL system?

I have and its been good, but I was wondering how to get more games, because theRizz system provides maybe 4-5 games a month.   

So, while looking at the season upon us...

  • NJ (10/8 Lost, won)(11/5 won) (1/4 lost, won)
  • NYI (10/8 lost, won)(10/29 lost, lost won) (11/15 lost, won) (12/6 won)
  • NYR (10/27 lost, lost, won)(12/22 won)
  • PHI (10/20 lost, lost, won) (1/2 lost won)
  • Pit (10/11 won) (11/21 won) (1/6 lost, lost, pending)
  • CHI (10/8 won) (12/21 won)
  • CLB (11/10 lost, won) (12/8 lost lost won)
  • DET (11/1 lost lost won)
  • NAS (10/25 lost, won) (11/12 lost, won) (12/10 won) (1/1 won)
  • STL (11/8 won) (12/3 lost, won) (1/3 won)
  • BOS (10/6 lost, won) (10/18 lost, won) (11/7 won) (1/5 won)
  • BUF (10/25 lost, won) (11/26 won) (12/7 lost, won)
  • MON (10/13 lost, lost, lost) (10/22 lost, lost, won) (12/13 won)
  • OTT (10/18 lost, won) (11/4 lost, lost lost) (12/14 lost won)
  • TOR (10/18 won) (12/17 lost lost won) (1/3 won)
  • CAL (10/18 won) (12/6 won)
  • COL (10/28 lost won) (11/18 won)(12/17 won)
  • EDM (10/20 lost won) (11/28 lost lost won)
  • MIN (10/13 won) (11/17 won)
  • VAN (10/18 lost, won) (11/13 won) (11/29 won) (12/19 won)
  • CAR (11/1 won) (11/29 lost lost lost) (12/21 lost won)
  • FLA (10/31 lost lost lost) (11/19 wown) (12/13 lost won) (12/27 won)
  • TB (10/17 lost won) (11/17 won) (12/27 won)
  • WAS (11/21 won) (11/29 won) (12/1 won)
  • WIN (11/14 won) (11/29 lost won) (12/13 won)
  • ANA (10/8 won) (11/9 lost won) (11/25 lost lost won) (12/29 lost lost lost)
  • DAL (10/10 won) (10/27 lost won) (11/19 lost won) (12/9 won) (12/29 Lost, won)
  • LAK (11/8 won) (11/26 lost won) (12/31 won)
  • PHX (10/15 won) (10/25 lost won) (11/3 lost won) (11/23 won)
  • SJ (11/3 won) (12/1 won) (12/15 won) (1/5 won)

 

As we can see (if you can understand the above) if we chased every 3+ home stand with no filters we would have been

 90-5 (94%) ytd

A games 46-44 (51%)

B games 28-15 (65%)

C games 9-5 (65%)

============================

Hey Glef,  

I just realized the total record for all the home game chases includes Rizz's original system.

The 90-5 record includes the 29-0 of Rizz,

If you were to subtract the B and C record of Rizz's 29-0 from the total record (90-5);  you are left with these percentages for the modified system.

Chasing 2nd and 3rd games of 3 home game series (minus Rizz)

A games = 26 - 34 (43%) (but we are omitting this game anyway)

B games = 20 - 12 (62.5%)  - still pretty good

C games = 7 - 5 (58%)

Basically,  I took the 90-5 record and subtracted Rizz's systems winnings to figure out the modified system's winning percentages.

Just food for thought.

(Here is Rizz's record for reference)

System so far this year:

29-0

A games = 20-10

B games = 8-3

C games = 2-0 (Chi C game pending)
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glefkb01
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#8
Posted: 1/10/2012 8:10:10 PM

You ever realize a trend and then post it and it SUCKS!!!

 

Pitt down 3-0 in second period to Ottawa.

Chicago pending.

 

Skew8...    yeah... I just went through every team homestands and counted them up.   The end result was about 60% which still is money.   the 90-5 is misleading when you account for a 40% loss throughout the year.

 
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glefkb01
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#9
Posted: 1/11/2012 6:51:56 AM

So my modification isnt working... what else is new.   I will leave the systems to my colleagues here and just trail like most.

Pit lost 3 home games in a row which is rare!

NYI won against detroit

Check the lines for WAS and EDM who start homestands tonight
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