Messages

Forum Index : Mixed Martial Arts : Messages
Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: Upcoming UFC Tilts
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 4080
Location: Alberta
#1
Posted: 11/30/2011 3:49:40 PM

Here are some upcoming UFC fights. I'm going to put down some preliminary leans. Feel free to add your thoughts:

Kampmann/Alves - I think Alves has more tools to win

Evans/Davis - this is a tough call, mainly due to Evans lack of activity the past couple years, but I think his wrestling should be good enough to keep it standing and his standup should be better

Miller/Guillard - I like Miller here. Don't think he'll lose two in a row. Guillard has all the skills but he has to keep his head straight. When he got KO'd by JLau, he was more worried about his pre-fight dance

Diaz/Cowboy - I like Cowboy. They are almost the same fighter but Cerrone has a few more yrs experience

Bendo/Edgar - I'd love to see Bendo as champ

GSOP/Gomi - night night George

Sanchez/Ellenberger - Jake may be the one fughter who can KO Diego. Ellenberger for sure

Jones/Machida - Bones for sure

Thiago/Pyle - should be a good even scrap

Rampage/Bader - should go the distance, but i'd love to see a dramatic KO

Hominick/Zombie - Hominick for sure

Njokuani/Nijem - should be a great fight. If Njo's takedown D is good he should outstrike Nijem

Kos/Condit - please Carlos, win this fight!!

Fitch/Hendricks - should be fitch's fight

Faber/Cruz - likely the same result as last fight. Just maybe Faber hits him with a bomb

any others you can think of??

 

quote
jonnyg4508 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnyg4508
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 510
Location:
#2
Posted: 11/30/2011 4:03:23 PM
I like

Kampmann - of course depends on the odds, but I will guess he will be the dog.  ALves has great kicks, but overrated striking.  I think it will be a great fight.

Evans- no question for me here.

I have no lean in the Guillard/Miller fight. 

No lean in Soti fight.  I think Gomi sucks though. 

Ellenberger.

Bones

Good fight, I'd go Paulo over Pyle though.

Bader has no business getting this fight. 

Hominick and I'm hoping the line is good enough to parlay nicely.

Njokuani all day.

I wouldn't bet it.  But I'd go Koscheck.

Fitch.

If Faber has enough value I will take him.  He will be more comfortable at 135 than he was before.  He is craving a UFC title.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Cerrone line was the biggest joke of the year.  I have no clue why I didn't get some of Nate at +290.  Nate is a beast at 155.  He has hung with Guillard and Maynard.  Some of the best of the division.  This is a great fight and Nate still has value.  I look at this as almost a pick'em fight. 

Edgar/Bendo - will be more interesting odds.  If people underestimate Frankie again, I will bet him again.  Frankie will out-box Bendo on his way to a win. 
quote
whipton send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
whipton
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2548
Location:
#3
Posted: 11/30/2011 4:55:49 PM
gsop
kos
bader lean
quote
boberts427
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
boberts427
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 4933
Location: United States
#4
Posted: 11/30/2011 5:30:04 PM

Alves has a new diet and is a better fighter now, he's not cutting 22lbs the wrong way

I might be doing Alves/Condit parlay

If i can get Machida +400 i will go (1/2-1U) Bones is on another level but if one guy out there has a WTF style that a young fighter might have problems with, it's here

Allot of your fights have fight of the night all over them

 

quote
esprague send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag |
esprague
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 622
Location: Massachusetts
#5
Posted: 12/1/2011 7:30:48 AM

Hey, Sawman, I know you're always looking for ways to make money...you ever consider par-lay-ing other sports with UFC to even out the odds...check this out...I like it, especially since I can bet on Bones and still get even odds:

11/27 11:45 PM 175281991- 1 Money Line $224.98 $246.88 U.F.C. U.F.C. - Jon Jones -500 for Fight Lines Soccer Champions League - Barcelona -1200 for Game
Boxing Boxing - Amir Khan -1000 for Fight Lines
Football NFL - New Orleans Saints -300 for Game
Soccer Champions League - Benfica -1000 for Game

New Orleans -300 (Win)

Benfica - 1000 (Dec 6)

Barcelona - 1200 (Dec 6)

Amir Kahn -1000 (Dec 10)

Jon Jones - 500 (Dec 10)

$224.98 to make $246.88

 

quote
jonnyg4508 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnyg4508
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 510
Location:
#6
Posted: 12/1/2011 10:50:50 AM
^ I would look at it like I got Saints at EVEN, since they are the smallest favorite. 

I wish more books offered this.  What book is this out of?
quote
esprague send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetOnline.ag |
esprague
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 622
Location: Massachusetts
#7
Posted: 12/1/2011 11:39:53 AM

yeah, i know bo-dog and a lot of the more reputable books don't but BetUS does...

Yeah the Saints game was the only one I was remotely worried about...the spread was 7.5 and it was at home, though.  I'll be a little apprehensive about the Bones fight, but the other three are pretty much in the bag...

I've actually hit 9 money-line parlays in a row...this is the first cross-sport one I've done, though...usually, I'm not so patient, but money's pretty important to me right now.

quote
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 4080
Location: Alberta
#8
Posted: 12/1/2011 11:46:38 AM

I cross bet quite frequently. About 2 weeks ago I hit  a 12 teamer MMA/NFL for 16x. One kinda lazy/bad thing I do with my betting, is that I only use one book, Bodog. My Visa won't allow me to deposit on getting sites, and I've tried to make bank deposits to 5Dimes and Pinny, and had difficulty and have given up easy. I'm happy with Bodog, specifically their payouts, so I've just played that book.

I know i should try a little harder to compare lines, and get some of those funky 5Dime prop bets going.

Thanks for the tip. Also, I have bet other sports like tennis, soccer, etc... But generally if I'm not going watch it or have an interest, I'm not likely to bet it.

quote
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 4080
Location: Alberta
#9
Posted: 12/2/2011 2:32:19 PM

couple other important fights that I forgot

Mendes/Aldo - I think Mendes has a real good shot at taking the title

JLau/Pettis - Lauzon displayed his power vs Guillard. And his ground game is as good as it gets. Pettis hasn't impressed me at all since he beat Bendo, which was a huge accomplishment, but if they fought again, I'd take Bendo all day long

quote
LexingtonTim
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LexingtonTim
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 599
Location: Kentucky
#10
Posted: 12/2/2011 7:40:29 PM
Sawman,
Give me ur indept analysis on the upcoming fight between Cowboy Cerrone and Diaz. I would love to hear more of how these 2 match-up and how you think the fight will actually go! Thanks!
quote
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 4080
Location: Alberta
#11
Posted: 12/3/2011 6:28:59 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LexingtonTim:

Sawman,
Give me ur indept analysis on the upcoming fight between Cowboy Cerrone and Diaz. I would love to hear more of how these 2 match-up and how you think the fight will actually go! Thanks!

here's some thoughts: both guys are roughly 6', which is tall for LW. So they are both lanky guys, basically the same build. They both have stellar ground games, so what typically happens in the scenario is the fight doesn't hit the mat for long. And they both have awesome standup, but it differs. Diaz throws lots of looping rights AND lefts, without a lot of power. punches in bunches. Cerrone is probably a little more crisp and technical and I think has more power behind his shots. I think Cowboy's advantages are experience, power, and leg strikes. Also, I think Cerrone's defense is a little better. Both Diaz brothers have granite chins and take shots to give shots.

I'm not an expert, just a fan - I'd love to hear some feedback on my thoughts too. This is a guaranteed barnburner. Both guys should get title shots at some point soon. The winner may be in line next. Both fighters have drastically improved, already great skills, in the past 1-2 years. I haven't seen the line, but I heard Cowboy is a 3x fav??? seems out of line, but I think he is better at this time. I don't even know when this card is, and it's not likely a main event, but I'd love to see these dudes scrap it out for 5 rounds. I would love to see even more 5 round fights than just the main event. Maybe expand to co-main as well

quote
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 4080
Location: Alberta
#12
Posted: 2/8/2012 3:28:15 PM

there's a couple upcoming fights, a ways away, that I really like

just announced today, Cerrone vs Yves Edwards. I'm guessing the odds will be -500 or more, but this is a total mismatch. I don't understand this match up by Silva

Wiman vs Bocek - I really like Wiman here. I think is a great fighter. And Bocek, while good on the ground (not as great as he thinks) is horrible at standup. Wiman's game usually is him standing in the pocket and taking (not hard) shots in order to dish out more/harder strikes. This has cost him before (Siver) because while he stands in the pocket, taking shots, he loses points. BUT... I think he has the TD defense to keep it standing. And by him standing in the pocket, he will entice Bocek to use his horrible striking. Eventually he unleashes on Bocek. Just my thoughts

Pettis/J Lau - what a great fight this will be. I think JLau comes in as a dog, and I like him

Kongo/Hunt - this is another confusing matchup that I don't understand. So Kongo beats Meathead (and Baryy before that), and then he gets Hunt? that is not moving up the HW ladder

I don't even know Benadidez's next opponent, but I saw he was -800+. I can't remember seeing that in UFC

quote
sharpstick send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: M Resort |
sharpstick
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 8152
Location: Nevada
#13
Posted: 2/8/2012 3:33:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sawman:

there's a couple upcoming fights, a ways away, that I really like

just announced today, Cerrone vs Yves Edwards. I'm guessing the odds will be -500 or more, but this is a total mismatch. I don't understand this match up by Silva

Wiman vs Bocek - I really like Wiman here. I think is a great fighter. And Bocek, while good on the ground (not as great as he thinks) is horrible at standup. Wiman's game usually is him standing in the pocket and taking (not hard) shots in order to dish out more/harder strikes. This has cost him before (Siver) because while he stands in the pocket, taking shots, he loses points. BUT... I think he has the TD defense to keep it standing. And by him standing in the pocket, he will entice Bocek to use his horrible striking. Eventually he unleashes on Bocek. Just my thoughts

Pettis/J Lau - what a great fight this will be. I think JLau comes in as a dog, and I like him

Kongo/Hunt - this is another confusing matchup that I don't understand. So Kongo beats Meathead (and Baryy before that), and then he gets Hunt? that is not moving up the HW ladder

I don't even know Benadidez's next opponent, but I saw he was -800+. I can't remember seeing that in UFC


Yves showed well against Ferguson last time out, and arguably could've won the decision.  I think your guess is a tad high.

Urushitani is as live as a +650 can be.  Don't let the odds fool you, he could win this fight, and it is much closer than that.  I am baffled at those odds and will be playing him.  I had Benavidez -400
quote
jonnyg4508 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnyg4508
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 510
Location:
#14
Posted: 2/9/2012 4:29:49 PM
It will depend on what the line is, but I in no way think Cerrone deserves -500 over Yves.  Cerrone wins that fight though. 

Wiman/Bocek....who knows.  I like Wiman's aggressiveness.  But Bocek can have his moments.  I am guessing the odds will be pretty close here.

I am a huge Lauzon fan.  So I won't bet.  He gets underestimated all the time.  But it isn't a great matchup for him.  Pettis has the skills not to get sub'd.  And his striking is very sound.  Thing about Lauzon is he gasses more than I'd like to see for a 155er.  If Lauzon is "dogged" big again I meant play him. I will assume he will get more respect though, and I won't play it.  Great fight though.

I like Hunt assuming he is a decent dog (-180 to -250).  Hunt showed some decent TDD vs. Rothwell.  And if Kongo stands with him it could be night night.  Hunt has to be more pumped than ever to get a win and do something with this UFC chance.

Don't know enough about Joe B's opponent.  I think he and Mighty Mouse will be beasts at 125lbs.  I know I won't waste my money on a Japanese "star" they are all overrated.  And looking at the guys record he doesn't seem too impressive. That and he is what 35 years old?  Again, I don't know enough about this one to even think about messing with either side.  Gut feeling is Joe runs through this guy, but that isn't really going out on a limb. 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Also:

Sexyama vs Shields?  Don't know what to make of this one. 

I also like Lil Nog at what? +200 or even better in spots?  I have been a Gustafsson supporter for a while.  I think he has a lot of skills.  But look at the matchup.  Gustaf likes to bounce around and use his length and boxing to win fights.  Well, Lil Nog still has some of the best hands in the division.  He is a very good boxer with some good power.  On the ground he is also the better BJJ fighter.  Gustaf is no wrestling guru, something Lil Nog will be thankful to finally see in the UFC.  I'll take +200 all day on Lil Nog in a stand up fight.  Gustaf has skills and potential to be real good.  But the matchup is tough for him.  He shouldn't be that big of a favorite. 
quote
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 4080
Location: Alberta
#15
Posted: 2/10/2012 10:36:36 AM

just to correct an earlier comment "some fights that i really like" should have read more like "some interesting matchups".

I have Gustaf in a small long shot parlay, so I've already played him to win. This is the fight for Gustafsson that is the test to see how good he really is, if that destruction of Janitor wasn't already enough. Just like Bones, and how he kept getting tested and destroying, leaving you saying "wow" (Janitor/Hamill). I think this may be the same way. While Nog's boxing is awesome, I see Gust working all areas of his stand up, coming in at dif angels, and overwhelming with his speed and size. Should be a beaut

quote
jonnyg4508 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnyg4508
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 510
Location:
#16
Posted: 2/10/2012 11:44:20 AM
I just like Nog because he is a very good boxer.

Gustaf better have looked great standing vs. wrestlers who had ZERO striking.  They were basically standing punching bags. 

Nog probably has 5x the striking as Hamill and Vlad.  He is a very good boxer with a good chin.

I just don't think Gustaf is a more than 2-1 favorite in what seems to be a striking contest.   The 2 guys he fought with good striking were Diabate and Te-Huna...and he ended up just subbing those guys.  That won't be the case vs. a legit blackbelt like Nog, who has better BJJ than Gustaf.

Gustaf is real good, and I've always liked him as a prospect. But I just don't understand the line.  Lil Nog rarely gets tooled in a striking contest.  He is usually the one doing the tooling.  I think Gustaf can win by being lighter on his feet and using movement.  But as far as in the pocket striking, Nog is better.

I see this line similarly to the Nate Diaz/Cerrone line.  Everyone wanted to anoint Cerrone as the next challenger, and that line was set way too high.  The boxer ended up tooling the kickboxer.

If Gustaf wins I just don't see it being an easy fight for him.  Nog matches up VERY well. 
quote
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 4080
Location: Alberta
#17
Posted: 2/21/2012 3:56:20 PM

im really looking forward to Belcher/Palhares - who will be favored?.. I'm thinking Belcher by a sliver

Another good fight I'm looking forward to is Thompson/Noons - Who will be favored in that one? Noons probably? But Thompson is more well rounded

quote
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 4080
Location: Alberta
#18
Posted: 3/6/2012 1:09:21 PM

Michael McDonald +110 vs Torres -140... I'm liking McDonald as a dog at this point

quote
ctm1985 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
ctm1985
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 1674
Location: Canada
#19
Posted: 3/6/2012 3:47:54 PM
Little Nog out, Thiago Silva in
quote
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 4080
Location: Alberta
#20
Posted: 3/6/2012 4:37:32 PM
I like Gust even better with that matchup
quote
sawman send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
sawman
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 4080
Location: Alberta
#21
Posted: 3/8/2012 12:12:32 PM

Cain ranges from -400 to -525 vs Mir!!! That's nuts. If he wants to work his wrestling, Mir is far better than him in BJJ. Stand up: Mir is improving all the time, and I think he has close to the same power

thoughts?

quote
jonnyg4508 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnyg4508
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 510
Location:
#22
Posted: 3/8/2012 12:43:21 PM
It's a fight I wouldn't touch, but I see Cain winning.
quote
Forum Index : Mixed Martial Arts : Messages
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.