Posted: 12/15/2012 6:11:10 AM
Originally Posted by esplanade
Here are some current prices that seem to have a lot of value.
Romney to win the presidency +400
(That's akin to getting him at E to win the nomination and then +150 to defeat obama) That is tremendous value.
Newt to win +650 (That's down from 33/1 last week)
If you stagger Newt and Mitt appropriately, that computes to +200 on the pair, which sounds amazing.
Alternately obama is available at constructed +150 odds on the electoral count at one of my books.Taking obama +150 & Mitt/Newt +200 is a pretty nice hedge.
THE QUESTION IS: What is the chance that neither M/N get the nomination? The most obvious way is that RS or RP win the nomination.......but that isn't happening. Secondarily and probably more likely is that it gets so heated between M/N that neither has enough delegates and they nominate someone else.
I know the likelihood of that is low, but how exactly does that work?
explain your swiss cheese roulette/partial hedge for -274 odda