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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: ***PREAKNESS THOUGHTS & PLAYS***
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#1
Posted: 5/12/2012 6:19:54 PM
Ended up losing about $700 in the derby, thats including a play in the race the day before with the fillies..........ended hitting Dullahan to show for $100 which he paid $7.20, gotta love the derby, all horses pay great for show............Started with $1,000. I will wager $300 on the Preakness.

As for who I like, well I like the derby winner...IHA. We havent had a possible triple crown threat since BB in 2008 & I think we are due & imo, IHA will win the Preakness.

As for Bode, I think he would like the Belmont track better than Pimlico but we shall see...........dont see much competition for Bode up front except for Hansen & I havent read up much on whether he is running or not.

IHA for the win

these other horses will be for the exacta & triple:

Went the Day Well, Bodemeister, Brimstone Island 

Here is a link to the possible horses running: http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/Preakness12.pdf

even if Dullahan ran, I wouldnt have liked him for 2nd, he will fit better at Belmont.
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#2
Posted: 5/12/2012 11:24:15 PM
i had  dullahan across the board to PTB ...its hard for me to see him in the preakness if he was running because of the tighter turns.. the pace might would help him out and the smaller field and in the belmont i think the pace could hurt dullahan because most belmont;s are won by horses on or close to the lead...i used the same logic with AK last year when he ran second thinking we were due for a triple crown chance...can this young jockey that won the derby do it again on the big stage...greyhound talked a lot about how he liked this horse before the derrby but not the jockey that wanted to go back and ride at his home track at hasting park because he was home sick...but this proves that it;s not the jockey but the horse...i know he;s a good young rider but i say no...he will have to beat me again...and he may do it...without trininbird  in the race i think big time bob babbert and his son bodey  wins this with a well timed ride from the veteran mike smith who is no stranger to big time races and big time ...GL PTB...
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#3
Posted: 5/13/2012 2:02:19 PM
I just dont see Bode performing as well as he did in the derby.........in fact, I think he bounces & comes in 3rd place.......he is a good horse & I really thought he was better fit in the Belmont.

IHA is a decent horse, I still dont know what happened in new york when he came in 9th by 16 lengths.........it was sloppy & maybe he hates the slop.
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#4
Posted: 5/13/2012 10:33:05 PM
Playing against Bode, wish we had exchange wagering here in the states.
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#5
Posted: 5/14/2012 11:35:13 AM
this preakness field is gonna offer ZERO value, with hansen out Bode is now the only early speed in the race so mike smith should pretty much be able to do whatever he wants. Closers are pretty much gonna have nothing to run at, what a horrible betting race this is setting up to be. the best of the new shooters is Hierro. 

early picks 

Ill Have Another
Bodemeister
Went The Day Well
Hierro
Creative Cause
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#6
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:03:56 PM

Not saying you're wrong but.....

keep this in mind. O'Neil has already said that I'll Have Another will be close to the pace. If the fractions are quieter, he won't be afraid to move early. Presuming he does and they get in a speed duel at the 3/4 and late in the mile, it is not outside the realm of possibility for some longshot to be flying late.

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#7
Posted: 5/14/2012 12:48:26 PM
wow, many defections. No Hansen or Hierro.
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#8
Posted: 5/14/2012 1:32:42 PM
djbrow have you ever even watched any of IHAs races besides the kentucky derby?????? hes always close to the pace except in the derby because he drew so wide.... but he wont go with Bode there will not be a speed duel thats for sure
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#9
Posted: 5/14/2012 2:04:41 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by angrybarber:

djbrow have you ever even watched any of IHAs races besides the kentucky derby?????? hes always close to the pace except in the derby because he drew so wide.... but he wont go with Bode there will not be a speed duel thats for sure

Close to the pace is a different term when discussing races such as the Preakness and Kentucky Derby vs. the Santa Anita Derby and Robert Lewis because of the sheer number of horses. He was exactly where you would expect him in the Derby based on the splits. My point is if he does not show a bit more speed early, he will allow Bode to set very uncontested fractions. I would not be surprised if he comes at Bode earlier if that happens (no sooner than the 3/4 I imagine).

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#10
Posted: 5/14/2012 2:30:24 PM
i think you need to rewatch the santa anita and the robert lewis. 

robert lewis 23.03, 46.77,1:10.52, 1:34.52, 140.84. fastest 1 1/16 time of any of these 3 year olds and he was never more then a length off the pace. 

santa anita 23.11, 47.11. 1:11.14, 1;35.36, 1:47.88 fastest 1 1/8 time of any of these 3 year olds and was very close to this pace the whole race. both of these races had very solid honest fractions. 

so how much more speed do you want him to show? he will keep Bodemeister honest but he will not be neck and neck with him. IHA puts himself where he needs to be early in races to stay out of trouble i really dont see the preakness being any different.
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#11
Posted: 5/14/2012 2:31:57 PM
another point, bode hasnt even proved he can duel with anyone, creative cause went right by him in the san felipe and IHA went right by him in the KD. hes fast but up to this point he hasnt proved hes game.
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#12
Posted: 5/14/2012 2:59:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by angrybarber:

i think you need to rewatch the santa anita and the robert lewis. 

robert lewis 23.03, 46.77,1:10.52, 1:34.52, 140.84. fastest 1 1/16 time of any of these 3 year olds and he was never more then a length off the pace. 

santa anita 23.11, 47.11. 1:11.14, 1;35.36, 1:47.88 fastest 1 1/8 time of any of these 3 year olds and was very close to this pace the whole race. both of these races had very solid honest fractions. 

so how much more speed do you want him to show? he will keep Bodemeister honest but he will not be neck and neck with him. IHA puts himself where he needs to be early in races to stay out of trouble i really dont see the preakness being any different.

47.11 and 45 and change are a difference of 7 lengths. That is my point. If no one else is coming at Bode, what will I'll Have Another do? I don't expect a duel but I do expect that he won't sit back in soft fractions past the 3/4. I would also expect that the shorter stretch will also make for an earlier move.

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#13
Posted: 5/14/2012 3:15:09 PM
Keep in mind I am not saying the above scenarios will happen. I was just pointing out that in post 5, you basically annointed Bode or I'll Have Another as the winner. I agree they will be big favorites, but if Ill Have Another is forced to move too soon and if Bode does cave, it could set up for a deep closer and a possible bomb.
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#14
Posted: 5/14/2012 3:23:28 PM
its funny you pick the slower race to compare your point too....... well see on saturday. GL
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#15
Posted: 5/14/2012 3:30:26 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by angrybarber:

its funny you pick the slower race to compare your point too....... well see on saturday. GL

I used the SA Derby because of the quality of the race. I pay much less attention to splits in races with less qualiy horses.

And one would generally expect a race in a 1 /16 to have faster early splits than 1 1/8.

Again, my scenario is only based on the idea that I'll Have Another Could be forced earlier than the connections woul like.

GL to you too.

 

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#16
Posted: 5/17/2012 1:06:37 AM
IHA with WTDW , Bode & DNB in exactas & triples...............IHA on top of all tickets...........
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#17
Posted: 5/17/2012 8:49:36 AM

If I can get past the horrific handling (flying all over the country and all the other BS) I think Creative Cause is a serious value play in the Preakness.  6-1 is very square for a horse who easily beat Bode in California and had a much worse / wider trip than IHA last week.

I think he'll be overlooked (of course) and will be getting first crack at Bode & IHA if they don't fire their best shots.

Worth the price.

HB

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#18
Posted: 5/17/2012 10:11:33 AM
holy bull i think your right on with creative cause thats my triple and ex box  extra on iha over cc gd luck
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#19
Posted: 5/17/2012 10:48:30 AM
ptb love ur thoughts on my cali ponie....lets hope for a great race and tons of $$$$$
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#20
Posted: 5/18/2012 9:37:11 PM
And coming to the top of the stretch, Bodemeister is pulling up , he couldnt sustain the speed & down the stretch they come..................its IHA looking like he will try for the triple crown..........
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#21
Posted: 5/18/2012 9:45:23 PM
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#22
Posted: 5/18/2012 9:48:56 PM
lovvveeee IHA....simply agreat weekend here in southern california this weekend...lakers,doyers,kings....and i guess clipps....
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#23
Posted: 5/18/2012 10:09:21 PM
I just placed my triples through ebet for advanced wagering on tomorrows Preakness:



#9 IHA with the 5,7,8..........$20 cost $120 (I dont think Bode will come in the top 3 but just in case)

#9 IHA with the 5,8 ($10 straight triple cost $10)

$170 to place on #9 IHA


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#24
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:12:56 PM
Good luck, PTB, I think the Belmont will be a much better betting race, I think Creative Cause and Daddy Nose Best deserve another chance, also thinking WTDW and IHA should be there as well, only token bets for me this time, thinking race will be too chalky, although I do agree with you I think there is some chance Bodemeister fades out of the money after trying to wire them.  Following the crowd is not my thing....
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#25
Posted: 5/18/2012 11:16:16 PM
Wondering why you left CC off your ticket bud? He had the worst trip in the Derby according to Trakus. GL ...if I'll Have Another is 7/2 at post I'm probably betting a dime on his nose. The more I think about it the more I feel he won't be beat.


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