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Author: [Mixed Martial Arts] Topic: UFC on FX4 Predictions with write-ups
crowat send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/18/2012 2:39:54 PM

Nick Catone vs.  Chris Camozzi  
Preliminary Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

Camozzi

Camozzi is one of the larger middleweights (6’3), he is well rounded (6 submissions and 4 KO/TKO), with three submission loses and 2 decision defeats. His record overall stands at 16 - 5. At only 25 years of age Chris holds a slight experience edge over Catone (9 – 2). Chris played rugby in College and wrestled in high school, he took up boxing and BJJ in 2005 after his Rugby career ran its course. He is billed as BJJ purple belt and a Muay Thai fighter. Chris holds notable wins over Joey Villasenor (outside the UFC) as well as a somewhat controversial split decision win over Dongi Yang. Camozzi lost a one-sided decision to wrestling based French beast Francis Carmont at UFC 137, was tapped out by a Kyle Noke rear naked choke at UFC 127, Lost a decision to UFC vet Jesse Taylor in 2009, Triangle loss  to journeyman (6’5) Nick Rossborough and an arm-bar loss to UFC vet Jesse Forbes in 2008. All of the fighters Camozzi has lost to have one thing in common:  they are all better wrestlers than Camozzi (save for maybe Noke and Rossborough, who both have serviceable MMA wrestling).

 

Catone

Catone is New Jersey native who picked up wrestling early on in middle school. Catone wrestled all through his school years, picking up many awards along the way.

-          New Jersey State place winner

-          Three-time Division 1 national qualifier

-          2X Division 1 conference champion

-          100 Division 1 career wins.

-          Captain 2003-2004 season

After wrestling at Rutgers (on a full scholarship) for one year he decided to change schools to Rider University where he won Male Athlete of the Year in 2004. Catone eventually graduated with a degree in Psychology, so the dude is smart too.  Catone is 6 foot even and holds a 72.5 inch reach which he utilizes in a south paw stance.  Catone holds a brown belt in BJJ which complements his already stellar wrestling / ground game. He has been working diligently on his box with Legendary Jersey Shore Pugilist Frank Savannah to make himself a dangerous triple threat fighter (boxing, submissions, and take-downs/control).  Cantone is 9 – 2 with his only loses to Mark Munoz(a wrestler with even better credentials than Catone at the division 1 level)  by decision and feisty submission artist Tim Credeur (6’3) by Guillotine Choke. Catone’s biggest wins are against UFC vet John Howard in 2007 and Constantinos Philippou at UFC 128 by decision.  In his last fight against Philippou he controlled the Serra-Longo fighter on the ground and opened him up with some nasty ground and pound, in the second he out boxed the boxer and again hit a few take-downs with some group and pound en-route to a dominant decision win.

Prediction – As long as the long layoff doesn’t affect Catone too much I see him taking a somewhat un-eventful decision.  He has had long layoffs before and been able to come in and get the win (against Forbes and Philippou) Also Catone has a win over Forbes and Forbes beat Camozzi, MMA math for the win! I see lots of take-downs and some ground and pound. Camozzi could lock on a guillotine off of one of Catone’s take-downs but I’m hoping Nick can fend any sub attempts off. Camozzi struggles against good wrestlers and that is exactly what Nick is. Happy betting! Next fight later today or tomorrow.

 

 

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#2
Posted: 6/19/2012 12:09:24 PM

Dan Miller vs.   Ricardo Funch  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg

Miller

Miller is making his virgin run at 170lbs. He started training in MMA in 2005 at Plant Jiu-Jitsu, already an accomplished wrestler it took Miller only 5 years to earn his BJJ black belt under Renzo Gracie black belt Jamie Cruz. Earlier in his career he held both the Cage Fury Middleweight title and the IFL Middleweight title. Miller is 13 – 6 over all with 8 submissions, 1 knockout and 4 decisions. He has never been submitted or stopped with strikes as his 6 loses are all decisions. This is even more impressive if you look at the quality of opponents he has faced – Mike Massenzio (L), John Howard, Ryan McGivern, Rob Kimmons, Matt Horwich, Jake Rosholt, Chael Sonnen (L), Demian Maia (L), Michael Bisping (L), Joe Doerksen, Nate Marquardt (L) and freaking Rousimar Palhares (L). His last fight was a bizarre decision loss to Paulharris, as Rousimar thought the fight was over and celebrated atop the cage as Dan was waiting to fight below.

 

Funch

Funch is a Brazilian born fighter currently training at Team Link in Massachusetts. He decided to take up MMA 4 years ago after seeing videos of old UFC fights. He is 5’10, fights orthodox stance and was recently promoted to a BJJ black belt my Marco Alvan on December 11th, 2011. He is 8 – 3 overall and is billed as a BJJ fighter but he seems to prefer to stand and bang more often as he has 4 wins by knockout and only 1 submission.  He has 3 loses, 1 sub, 1 knockout and 1 decision. He was viciously knocked out by veteran Mike Pyle at UFC 142 RIO in his last fight. His other notable loses are to Claude Patrick by submission and Johnny Hendricks by decision. His only real notable win is a pre UFC tko win over current ufc fighter TJ Waldburger.

 

Prediction – Miller submission round 3. I don’t like Funch in this fight as I think his one avenue to victory is to wrestle and try to maintain top control. Funch is not submitting or knocking Miller out. If Nate, Bisping, Rousimar, Maia and Sonnen couldn’t stop Miller….well…GL HF Funch. That being said Funch is a bit more aggressive than miller and his hands might be a bit heavier as Miller relies on tight, smart boxing, never putting himself in a bad spot but not being too flashy either. All signs point to a Miller sub late or decision win.

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#3
Posted: 6/19/2012 1:12:07 PM

Dustin Pague vs.   Ken Stone  
Preliminary Card | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Stone (5’8)

A wrestler at Bridewater State University (Div 3) from 2001 – 2004, stone began training in MMA in 2006 and turned pro the following year. He won his first 8 bouts on the regional circuit but dropped a 5 round split decision to Jason McLean (stone claimed he sustained a broken foot in the second). Stone lost his WEC debut by vicious KO, a slam by Eddie Wineland and his follow up fight to Scott Jorgensen by KO in round 1. Those are Stone’s only loses as he is 10 - 3 over all with 6 submissions and 4 knockouts.

Pague (5’9)

Pague is a lanky 135er, with decent kickboxing and good to great submissions. He upset Jared Papazian in his last fight by hitting a nice trip in the clinch then dominating on the ground for a 1st round submission. He co-owns his own gym and is the head MMA instructor there. He also trains with Donald Cerrone at the tapout ranch. I still don’t know much about Pague as he was blasted early in his UFC debut by John Albert and then secured a quick win in his second.

Prediction – I will probably stay away from this fight but if had to make a choice it would be Ken Stone via TKO in the second.  Papazian stayed in the Clinch WAY too long with Pague, he stood there throwing body shots while Pague worked the collar tie and sick trip. Stone will not stand around in the clinch with a guy who’s best shot to win is to get it to the floor and latch on a sub. Ken was actually out striking Wineland in their fight before getting knocked out by that wicked slam. Ken will use his wrestling to stay upright and blast away on the feet before stopping Pague in the second. I counted Pague out in his last fight though so you never know. Pague and Stone have only went to a decision a total of two times between them…look for a finish at some point in this one.

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#4
Posted: 6/19/2012 5:09:58 PM

Matt Brown  vs.   Luis Ramos   Confirmed
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg) 

Ramos (5’8,  72” reach)
19 – 7 overall

Ramos is a former Shooto Brazil welterweight (168 lb.) champion and has won six out of his last eight fights. He trains out of Nova Uniao in Brazil. His only losses were to UFC veteran Roan Carneiro in the first round of the United Glory welterweight tournament and in his UFC debut to Erick Silva in just 40 seconds. 11 of his 19 wins have come via decision, and he has only been finished twice in his 25-fight career.

Brown (6’0,  76” reach)

Brown got his start on season seven of the ultimate fighter; he was eliminated by the eventual winner Amir Sadollah. Brown is purple belt in BJJ and is working towards a black belt in Judo. He is also known for having a kitchen sink for a chin as he has never been knocked or stopped with strikes in 25 MMA fights. He has 14 wins and 11 losses, 9 of those losses are by Submission, submission grappling has been the one area in which Matt Brown has faltered. Although it’s not like he is getting sub’d by scrubs, he has lost by submission to: Lytle twice, Ricardo Almeida, Brian Foster and a Seth Baczynski Guillotine and a few no-names but that was back in 2007.

Prediction – Matt Brown by grinding decision. If Ramos had more than one submission wins in his 25 fights I would have given more thought to this. Brown uses his reach advantage to close the distance on the feet and makes this a dirty fight along the fence; clinch work, dirty boxing and the occasional take-down seal the deal with the judges.

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#5
Posted: 6/20/2012 12:02:16 PM

Rick Story  vs.   Brock Jardine  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Jardine (5’11)

Talk about being thrown to the wolves. Jardine is making his UFC debut on short notice, replacing Papy Abedi. He is 9 – 1 overall with 3 Kos/TKos, 4 submissions and 2 decisions.  Jardine’s level of competition outside the UFC leaves a few questions for me. It looks like a 12 – 7 fighter named Kenny Ento is Jardine’s biggest win. Current UFC fighter Tony Ferguson is responsible for Jardine’s only loss. He fights out of the Pit Elevated and is a former D1 wrestler at Lock Haven University and Utah Valley University.

 

Story (5’10)

Is a 27 year old welterweight, he excels at mixing his striking with his wrestling as well as pushing the pace, never letting his opponents find their rhythm.  Story was a NAIA runner-up at the national championships for Southern Oregon,  while this is a lower tier of  wrestling Story has adapted his college style to fit MMA perfectly, something even D1 wrestlers have trouble doing.  Story has been fighting some of the best fighters around since the start of his career, let’s take a quick look.  1st fight – UFC vet Mario Miranda (L), Julio Paulino, Ryan Healy, Jake Ellenberger, John Hathaway (L), Brian Foster, Nick Osipczak, Dustin Hazelett, Johnny Hendricks, Thiago Alves, Charlie Brenneman (L), Martin Kapmann (L).

It would be an understatement to say Jardine has a stiff test in front of him.

 

Prediction – I said it before: I don’t like betting on fighters I have never seen fight in real time.  It’s hard not to side with the UFC verteran who has faced a murders row of fighters already in his career, add on the “octagon jitters” and the fact that Jadrine is coming in on short notice I’d have to pick Story for a decision win.  It will be interesting to see how Jardine’s cardio and fight IQ play out in this fight as I think he matches up well with Story. Jardine brings good boxing and top-shelf D1 wrestling, whether he can implement a smart game-plan against Story remains to be seen.  Jardine could surprise with takedowns and top control, Charlie Brenneman and Martin Kapmann laid the blue print for beating story, I’m interested to see if Jardine can do the same.  I’ll take the safe prediction and go with Story via Decision. I probably won’t bet on this fight, or maybe throw some action on Jardine as he will almost surely be an underdog.

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#6
Posted: 6/20/2012 7:11:47 PM

Steven Siler vs.   Joey Gambino  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

 

Siler (5’11)

Siler is probably most famous for choking out the younger Miller brother, Micah, on TUF and then defeating his older brother Cole Miller by unanimous decision in his last fight. Siler is 20 – 9 overall, but only has two losses in his last 17, a KO loss to Chad Mendes and triangle choke loss to Cole Escovedo. Siler has notable wins over current Bellator fighter Travis Marx, Nick Mamalis (both good wrestlers)Josh Clopton and both Miller brother as stated above.  Siler is a massive 145er, clocking in at just under 6 feet tall, he uses his height, reach and leverage very well when inside the cage, always looking calm and collected. He put on a Muy Thai clinic against Clopton, landing possibly the most knees from a Thai clinch that I’ve ever seen inside the UFC.  He then took on Cole Miller as a big underdog, Cole was almost a -500 favorite to win, Cole lost via dominant decision. Siler kept it standing with rock solid take-down defense and battered Cole for three rounds.

 

Joey Gambino (5’7)

Gambino (aside from having an awesome name) is an undefeated fighter fighting out of the Tristar Gym in Montreal. He is making his UFC debut with a record of 9 – 0, 5 subs and 3 TKOs.  He wrestled in high school and just captured the Cage Fury Fighting Championship by defeating bellator fighter Kenny Foster by decision.

 

Prediction – I’ve constantly underestimated Siler due to him looking like he should be playing video games in his mom’s basement rather than fighting inside the UFC. No more. The kid is for real. Gambino has a tough test in front him. I’ve never seen him fight but if I had to choose I’d pick Siler by decision. You need to watch out for those Tristar Gym fighters….St.Pierre and all that….I don’t like rating a fighter based out of what camp he trains at. Here is hoping this makes it to the second round so I can see what Gambino has to offer.

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#7
Posted: 6/22/2012 1:09:03 PM
Busy week so I didn't get a chance to do anymore more of the card, hopefully you got a bit of info from what I was able to post.

Plays:

A few units each on - Hatsu Hioki, Gray, and Catone

Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum -500
Gray "The Bully" Maynard -315
Hatsu Hioki -190
Nick "The Jersey Devil" Catone -225

$50 to win $124, not the best payout but I am pretty confident with the four picks.

Leans - Stone, Siler, Ramos, Story, (I know I picked Brown above, but I think I was predicting with my heart)

Actually that looks like a decent parlay for a few units maybe :P happy betting!

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#8
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:36:22 PM
Pauge looked bad on the feet, he is a bit too slow for the weight class me thinks.
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#9
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:42:03 PM
Miller looking good...

funch hits hard so keep those hands up
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#10
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:45:41 PM
Awesome first round, Miller 10 - 9
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#11
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:47:47 PM
uh-oh, here comes funch
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#12
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:50:20 PM
what a great fight
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#13
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:51:30 PM
Funch can steal this in the third against a tired miller, I knew it was a good idea to stay away from that -500 line -_-
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#14
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:54:05 PM
Looks like I was wrong, funch looks to be the tired one
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#15
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:56:54 PM
Predictions are 2 for 2 so far..and I nailed that fight down to the specifics =)
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#16
Posted: 6/22/2012 6:44:34 PM
Nice work so far bro!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#17
Posted: 6/25/2012 11:08:36 AM
Thanks!
My actual bets were garbage thanks to Hioki and Catone, oh well. at least I hit almost all my predictions =)
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