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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB A system to consider Part 4
TheBuddah
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TheBuddah
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#1
Posted: 3/19/2012 11:39:07 PM

13. I don't bet over and unders very often - however, if you do it's important to look at the weather and whether the wind is blowing in out etc. - high composite pitchers, wind blowing out and the o/under line is high - the game is going over. Same scenario but the line on the game is very low - bet the under - oddsmakers are smarter than me.

14. HF favorites - if i like a team that is a huge favorite - i will bet them in a parlay vice m/l.  Sometimes I bet on the run line but usually parlays.  I don't like laying the lumber so suggest betting 2 team parlays. 

15. I have data that i have recorded in a spreadsheet since 2009 - i continue to add to it and make notes. Besides simply recording the line and the composite i record if teams won or lost on 7 game streaks and other information that helps me choose my spots.  

16. Note - when you are at sagarin's website and recording the numbers - most of the time the pitchers will have a higher mob than the ricky (read sagarins definitions for a ricky), however, if they are part of an elite group and they have a higher ricky than mob - i record it this way (ricky - mob), for example, if a pitcher has a ricky of 11 and an mob of 6 (11 - 6 = P 5)   - meaning the composite would be P5 and that's what i would put in my spreadsheet. 

17. All you are trying to do is mimic history.

18. Also, for the first week of baseball season what i do is look at preseason spring data - era, strikeouts and mob and compare that with opening lines -if the spring data doesn't make sense with the vegas line  - i often will go with the vegas line and take the favorite. however, if the lines are between 110 - 150 - i go with what pitcher has the best spring data. 

19. Good luck all.

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Randisist
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Randisist
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#2
Posted: 3/20/2012 8:23:42 AM
in one thread?
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Air1
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#3
Posted: 3/20/2012 1:21:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Randisist:

in one thread?


!!
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zcecil
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#4
Posted: 3/20/2012 3:12:32 PM
Just an fyi, people on here don't care about 95% of what you just wrote, actually 95% on here already know what you just wrote. What people like to see on here is the system in action. Sharing some random mathematical formula that only works half the time and needs to be aware of pitchers with no-decisions and teams with long winning streaks and losing streaks and human nature stuff and tons of asterisks tend to go the way of the buffalo around here. The system in action, with actual real picks and a win-loss/units record is imperative.
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zcecil
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#5
Posted: 3/20/2012 5:07:35 PM
And I realize now that this has come off pretty rude, so I apologize that's not my MO. Maybe start posting some things that are a little more tangible. That's what interests people.
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#6
Posted: 3/20/2012 6:54:38 PM
I agree with Randisist. 1 thread with 4 posts would have been an easier read.

@ zcecil - You have a point that this forum has turned into a place where we post theories and apply them to test and see if said theory works. However, I am not sure if that was the initial intent for the system & strategies section. Buddah just posted some information, albeit an experienced capper should already know, but that info could help someone in the future who needs it. Or some rookie who doesn't know much about gambler.
Why not in the strategies section???

Problem with a lot of people is they expect instant results and are on another person's wagon til they fall off.
Plenty of info on this site, just as in Buddah's post. The ignorant masses are what keeps vegas in business.
Let them be themselves whilst we be ourselves
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TheBuddah
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#7
Posted: 3/20/2012 8:48:07 PM
Just for the record - i tried to post it all in one thread -  it says it's too large - thus the 4 parts. zcecil - i'm a professor - i teach so i do believe in the step by step and attempt to get people to think and connect dots for themselves  - so am i covering things most know, maybe - either way basically it comes down to choices and consequences - it's taken me a lifetime to figure out some of the things i shared - if you use it or don't use it - it's all up to you - just sharing thoughts - if you have something we/i can benefit from please share. 
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#8
Posted: 3/21/2012 7:12:55 PM
Thanks for the info and the writeup. Is this the first time you are putting this method to use? I agree with zcecil that it would be a lot better if you had backtested the system or had results from previous years. I know that a lot of people on here like to close their eyes and even hate on threads with no past records, which would be a shame because then all of your info becomes a waste, at least for most people.

Do you have any results from past years?

Even if you don't, I appreciate the posts and support you all the way. Best of luck sir.
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TheBuddah
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#9
Posted: 3/22/2012 11:13:55 AM
Let me elaborate - i came up with this system in 2009.  Prior to that I tried a variety of methods to handicap baseball - looking at days of the week, left vs right, pitchers' era, frustrating losses etc.  What i started to recognize - the opening line captrues all of this and more - me looking up left vs right doesn't correlate to winning $$$. This system i have described has had positive results $$$  and allows you to take your opinions out of the equation and simply use the data to make the decisions for you.  I started this in May 2009 and have recorded the results of games pretty consistently since then.  I have made money the first half of the season - i realized after the trade deadline that teams that need to win seem to win and pull games out - thus i stopped using this system the second half of the season. 
 
To help understand this let's look at last years pitchers for Baltimore and Boston (used them b/c they are first in the alphabet) - data from sagarin:
 
Guthrie:   Rank 35 - Mob - 12.46 - Ricky 2.16
      Following the formula listed (35 + (12 - 2)) = 45 
 
Lester:   Rank 22 - Mob 11.83 - Ricky 5.71
            (22 +  ( 12 - 6))   = 28
We now have two composites 45 and 28.
 
On paper lester is the better choice.  Let's say the odds makers have lester 150 = a Solid favorite (SOF)  - Guthrie is away and Lester is at home.
 
I would search my data base for previous scenarios. My data base looks like this (copied directly from it):
 
59-70W-SOF
21-14 P0-19 56-63 47-28
L-SF MF-Lr/w L-SOFr/w W-SOF
 
When i did a search and find - i didn't find an exact match of 45 - 28 with a home team SOF. I found 47-28 - this would still tell me to go with Guthrie vice lester. Once again ideal but close is good as well - if the run line price isn't too bad I may consider that but most likely take guthrie on the m/l.  After the game is over, i would add the 45-28 -result to the data base. 
 
I hate guessing - prefer using this algorithm to help me make decisions - and it has proven to work.  Zcecil said 95% don't care - he is absolutely correct - just like a classroom can be - tell me what's on the test vice learning something. I try to follow Einstein's saying - don't seek to be successful but seek to be valuable. This has proven to work for me or i would not be sharing it - if your willing to put the time in and recognize it takes some work - it may work for you as well.   
 
Hope this clarified i'm not throwing out a theory but have applied it and found success.
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#10
Posted: 4/10/2012 10:11:15 AM

I like what your doing. Would like to start my own database. Actually I have started but it brings me to a question for you. In part 3 you say "after you have recorded enough data", what is enough in your experience? How long do you use spring training data?

I understand these numbers are just a starting point but I would like your analysis on a current situation. Let's take Philly for an example. I think it's safe to say they have one of the best rotations going but they are struggling offensively. Would you just lay off of them for awhile although the pitching matchups will almost always favor them?

Thanks in advance.

 

 

 

 

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TheBuddah
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#11
Posted: 4/11/2012 11:55:57 AM

Cjlipe - good questions. I only use spring data until a pitcher has pitched in an regular season game.  Today most pitchers are starting their second game - and i would go to sagarin's website and record the numbers - which i just got done doing.

Regarding enough data - i continue to add to my spreadsheet - basically in my opinion there is never enough. 

Let's look at philly:

6.5  Miami      Johnson         88

155 Philly       Halladay        P6

The opening line was Philly 155, i consider this a solid favorite (sof).  The 88 for johnson was derived using the formula ( Rank + (Mob-Ricky) = (67 + (18 - (-3))  = 88.

For halladay - since he had a ricky that was 10.14 and a Mob of 4.5.  Early in the season you will see pitchers have higher ricky's than mob, but then the men separate from the boys and you will see only a few pitchers will maintain a higher ricky than mob.  To help me clearly identify his worth i have to switch the formula around when a pitcher has a higher ricky than Mob - thus it's (ricky - mob) = (10.14 -  4.5)  = 6. 36, rounded = 6 but then i put a P in front of it which now gives me a P6.  This allows me to know that in this case the pitcher has a higher ricky than MOB.  

Now, I would go into my data base and search for a previous scenario that was a SOF with an 88 P6. Unfortunately, I did not find something exact nor close - thus i will avoid this game. 

However, the game that i did find a similar situation is Boston and Toronto:

119  Boston  Lester

8.0   Toronto  Romero       

Bos. is a small favorite and previous scenarios have shown with two pitchers with ratings of 52 (lester) and 63 (romero)   the home team has  won in these scenarios - thus i'm going with toronto. 

 Good luck

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#12
Posted: 4/11/2012 12:24:16 PM

Really appreciate the response and good explanations. I look forward

to collecting the data for this season.

Good luck to as well.

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TheBuddah
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#13
Posted: 4/11/2012 1:41:39 PM

Thanks cjlipe and good luck to you.  The other thing to pay attention to are pitching report cards - shows how a pitcher has performed in their previous starts - checkout statfox.com and also sportsnetwork.com  great sites for info.  

If a pitcher has a no decision where they pitched great - i have noticed they often will lose the next game out. For example, mccarthy pitched a great game in Japan but got a no decision and then lost to seattle back here.  Today Chen for kc had a great start but got a nd - against the angels.  Rating wise he is a P6 and Mccarthy is 54 but mccarthy is a sf(small fav.) at 119.  I didn't have any exact or close scenarios but i'm lovin oakland because the line doesn't make sense according to my data and for the fact that chen got a nd after pitching  a great game.

It's still early so becareful.   

 

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#14
Posted: 4/11/2012 7:40:02 PM
Cool, I'll keep these in my mind. I'm sure I'll be asking a few questions as the season goes along.
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#15
Posted: 4/12/2012 11:19:55 PM

TheBuddah I have a couple more questions...lol

How do you record the results? Obviously win or loss but for example what if the starter pitched excellent and the bullpen failed?

I'm not sure if this question is appropriate but I will throw it out there anyway. Would it be possible to share your past data with me since I just started mine?

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TheBuddah
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#16
Posted: 4/13/2012 10:58:18 PM

Cjlipe - No problem.  Before i answer your questions - i hope you and everyone has taken a look at the pitcher report cards and followed the trend of a pitcher pitching a great game and ending up with a ndecision. Today we had 2 games - lee - pitched great lastime out and today he got rocked; morrow, same situation. Lastnight it played out with Karstens.  Definitely something to keep your eye on.

On to your questions:

Below is how i record the results - it's taken directly from my spreadsheet.  You can add abbreviations if you want to put more info. in there or insert a comment.   For example, if two pitchers have high composites i might write down o for over or u for under.

For the most part, i just stick with the composite, the line and the result.  For example, tonite i loved the mets straight up - the reason why - it was a 64 - P3 situation and Lee was a Big favorite = 185 opening line.  I scanned my data sheet and found several situations, where a P3 team was a big favorite but lost to a team that had ranks of 62, 60, 59, 58.  Along with the ndecision situation, i felt comfortable taking the mets and it worked out.  

I recognize you and everyone else is starting fresh - not sure how many are actually starting a spreadsheet - i think you may be the only one - lol.  I started this spreadsheet back in May of 2009. There's a lot sweat and tears that have gone into it.  Simply handing it over was not my intention but showing you a system that you may want to consider was; however, send me a note and we can discuss offline. Good luck.

41-69L-SOFr/w
58-104     
MF-L

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#17
Posted: 4/14/2012 1:23:29 AM
i sent a friend request.
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#18
Posted: 4/19/2012 10:55:46 AM

another question

 

I recorded my composite number for games today before the games started yesterday. I look at saragins numbers for those games today and they are different. Why would they change for a pitcher who hasn't played?

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TheBuddah
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#19
Posted: 4/20/2012 6:03:06 PM
Excellent question - I always wait until he updates the numbers so i never use the numbers the day before for today's games.  The numbers change  slightly  - my rationale - he's normalizing the pitchers data based on the latest games played and that effects the other pitchers as well.  If you read his blurb - it might help explain how he goes about normalizing the numbers - this allows you to make a comparison on a pitcher that has pitched 15 innings vice 13 - normalization allows for an apples to apples comparison. 
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