Over / Under Poisson strategy

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Over / Under Poisson strategy
robomotion PM robomotion
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Posted: 2/1/2009 2:36:38 AM
reddog: you must condense your selections. if not,the vig will evaporate your hard and good work.
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 2/1/2009 4:45:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ferndog:

calinreddog on the PWP spreadsheet when it calculates the odds, are these value odds you should look for to get a value play? Is that what it calculates? For example on sunday chelsea at liverpool i got on the spreadsheet PWP chelsea 0.62 & odds at 1.59. Does this mean that if i can get chelsea better than 1.59 this is worth a look?

that's it

calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 2/1/2009 4:52:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by elithepunk:

great job today man

never thought that many NCAA bball overs would hit

Thank you; I am 13-3 win-loss on college bb by now.

That means 81.25% so it seems I found a little secret about college bb totals. It's only a formula using 4 numbers: points for and against for both teams. Nothing more. I don't even look at the teams names. I don't know anything about basketball. I have never played or watched a basketball game my entire life. It's only math, very simple.

I will keep testing my formula for a few days here on this topic and continue to post my picks before the games start. I use the same formula for NBA but at NBA I am only   8-3 (72.7%) the last 2 days.

Watch my picks and good luck!

 

calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 2/1/2009 6:27:48 AM
Picks for today:
 
NCAAB
 
PENNST-MCHST OVER 140
STJOE-DAYT OVER 125
CAN-RIDER UNDER 140
IOWA-ILL OVER 114
VIRG-DUKE OVER 145.5
SOFLA-STJ OVER 128
 
NBA
 
CLE-DET OVER 180
OKC-SAC UNDER 215.5
 
NHL
 
OTT-WAS UNDER 5.5
 
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 2/1/2009 7:15:03 AM
As a connclusion I think we may say that poisson distribution estimates pretty good the chances for soccer and hockey games to go under or over. If you find the value, poisson formula can make a little profit in the long run for soccer and hockey.
But I've become the last 2 days more concerned about the basketball totals and I found a method that's not poisson so there's no point to post about my basketball over/under system in this thread. Poisson doesn't apply to basketball because socring in basketball is not a poisson process.
So good luck to everybody who will like to try a poisson approach for soccer and hockey. I made an Excel worksheet for soccer and hockey that can be downloaded from my livespace (http://cid-c9f94e792da7f590.skydrive.live.com/browse.aspx/Sport%20Betting?uc=1).
I will start a new thread aimed to basketball totals only.
robomotion PM robomotion
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Posted: 2/2/2009 1:30:56 PM
where i and all the people that i know wager they have a little thing called juice i.e. -5.5 minus30 etc. or in soccer 2 -40 over or 2 +20 under. where is the juice when you are posting your numbers????
sniper2566 PM sniper2566
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Posted: 2/2/2009 1:45:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by robomotion:

where i and all the people that i know wager they have a little thing called juice i.e. -5.5 minus30 etc. or in soccer 2 -40 over or 2 +20 under. where is the juice when you are posting your numbers????

Go away or I'll have to shoot you!

jbrent95 PM jbrent95
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Posted: 2/2/2009 10:30:33 PM
Mr. Robo,
 
I added another line to Calin's prototype spreadsheet that also factors the juice.  For me this works as an additional filter.  I calculate the required break-even percentage required for the particular juice.  Then I calculate calculate the relative value of the bet.........I am new to sports betting so I may not have the proper vocabulary......here goes....
 
Per the Poisson ratio, the STL/DET game had a 59.7% probability of going OVER 5.  The line was 5.5 with -135 moneyline (ML)
 
 
When laying odds (i.e. -105,-110,-120,-135, etc...), the formula for calculating the break even percentage (BE%)is [-(ML)+100]/100 ===>
 
BE% =  [-(-135)+100]/100   =  57.4% 
(i.e. you have to win 57.4% of the time to beak even when laying -135)
 
 
When getting odd (i.e. +110,+155,+125,Even or 100), the formula for calculating the break even required is 100/(ML+10)
 
 
To calculate the relative value of a bet, I use the following formula:
 
  Value =  [(probability of winning) - (BE%)] / [100-(BE%)]
 
for tonight
 
  Value = (59.7-57.4) / (100-57.4) = 0.053 or 5.3%
 
Now, the question is...... was this a good bet?
 
 
cd329 PM cd329
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Posted: 2/3/2009 1:35:08 AM
Calin,
 Did you take the spreadsheets down on your link?  I can see them there, but cant get then to download.
Thanks
cd
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 2/3/2009 5:22:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cd329:

Calin,
 Did you take the spreadsheets down on your link?  I can see them there, but cant get then to download.
Thanks
cd

The spreadsheet it's there and you should be able to dowload it:

http://cid-c9f94e792da7f590.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Sport%20Betting/Poisson.xls

butta01 PM butta01
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Posted: 2/3/2009 4:07:49 PM
where is the first spreadsheet?this one looks totally different.
cd329 PM cd329
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Posted: 2/3/2009 6:51:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by calinreddog:

The spreadsheet it's there and you should be able to dowload it:

http://cid-c9f94e792da7f590.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Sport%20Betting/Poisson.xls

 

Still cant download it.  When i save target as a box opens saying cannot download from this site.  I have never had trouble downloading anything from any site on the net and am not a computer dummy either.  But for some reason iam unable to download this.  Any ideas Calin?

Thanks

elithepunk PM elithepunk
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Posted: 2/3/2009 7:11:43 PM
Guys - just wanted to let you know I was able to download that excel spreadsheet so the link is working
butta01 PM butta01
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Posted: 2/3/2009 7:31:51 PM
I downloaded it with no problems,but this one is different i have another.
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 2/3/2009 7:43:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by butta01:

I downloaded it with no problems,but this one is different i have another.

Yes, I replaced it with a new one much easier to use and more simplified. It doesn't compute separated chances for offense and defense it takes them both as an average.

calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 2/3/2009 7:45:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cd329:

 

Still cant download it.  When i save target as a box opens saying cannot download from this site.  I have never had trouble downloading anything from any site on the net and am not a computer dummy either.  But for some reason iam unable to download this.  Any ideas Calin?

Thanks

I have no idea, but Butta01 and Elithepunk managed to downloaded so I don't know. It's in a public folder and anyone should be able to download it.

cd329 PM cd329
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Posted: 2/4/2009 6:13:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by calinreddog:

I have no idea, but Butta01 and Elithepunk managed to downloaded so I don't know. It's in a public folder and anyone should be able to download it.

 

I know its crazy.  The file is sitting right there,but for some reason it wont download.  You dont happen to have it posted on any other file sites do you?

cd329 PM cd329
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Posted: 2/4/2009 6:18:50 PM
Calin,
 Finally got it to download.  Thanks
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 2/4/2009 6:19:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cd329:

Calin,
 Finally got it to download.  Thanks

jbrent95 PM jbrent95
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Posted: 2/15/2009 1:33:38 PM
Calin,
 
How's Poisson system doing in soccer & hockey?  I went 9-10-1 in soccer this weekend.
 
 
calinreddog PM calinreddog
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Posted: 2/15/2009 8:41:31 PM

I know...

Me too...

But that's the game. I had 3 excellent days last weekend, one I went 8-0 and now it seems I have to give back...

bsteeer PM bsteeer
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Posted: 4/4/2012 12:37:58 PM
Hallo, i seen that you downloaded spreedsheat in this topic http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100358503&page=4&refsite=accounts.covers.com  . I know, it is 3 years ago but, have you this spreeadsheat please? Or better than in this topic?
elnota10 PM elnota10
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Posted: 7/8/2012 6:42:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bsteeer:

Hallo, i seen that you downloaded spreedsheat in this topic http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100358503&page=4&refsite=accounts.covers.com  . I know, it is 3 years ago but, have you this spreeadsheat please? Or better than in this topic?
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