Posted: 6/27/2012 1:00:13 AM
Originally Posted by shark_apreza:
OK GUYS--- hold on ur friggin horses
1.- week one is nice to lay chalk with power houses against patsys
2.- the best bet here... and avoid back door---if ur chikin enough to lay wood...is...to play 1st-H and/or 10-14 pt teasers
i respectfully disagree on point #2....this is the first game...yes, they have motivation, and if the O is clicking then yes, an easy cover...but that clock seems to run fast in that first half. there is normally a 2-3 point premium for those folks who take the 1st half dogs...i have some close calls playing 1st half's in the 1st game against a patsy or even losses...like Texas, in 2009 when the I was actually good...
I think the better strategy is pick the powerhouse v.patsy in week 1 full game, where one believe's the powerhouse has the motivation to cover or show off in front of the home fans in week 1. in addition to talent differential, powerhouses will continue to score with 2nd and 3rd teamers because those guys are more talented than the 1st team of the patsy. though the patsys will keep fighting,they will eventually be worn down, and the powerhouse will keep scoring...
in essense, i advocate full games against patsy's in week 1. generally, at least in week 1, the patsy's don't BD cover....that can not be said for some meaningless Bama v. W Kentucky mismatch in mid-season. in that case a first half cover will probably be more likely than a 2nd with an outright or BD cover...