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Author:	[Pro Golf] Topic: Texas Open Discussion
blairaj	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 969 Location:	#1 Posted: 4/16/2012 11:12:58 PM If my memory is right, last year was abnormally very windy, so I ran both 2011 and 2010 for this tourney: 2011 Texas Open Slope R2 Rank BA 0.83 0.66 1 gir 0.76 0.35 2 PB 0.70 0.43 3 par4 0.69 0.27 4 sc 0.60 0.32 5 par5 0.57 0.36 6 pa 0.53 0.25 7 da 0.44 0.16 8 ppr 0.40 0.16 9 par3 0.28 0.05 10 dd 0.26 0.04 11 2010 Texas Open Slope R2 Rank par4 0.76 0.43 1 BA 0.70 0.54 2 par5 0.65 0.41 3 PB 0.64 0.49 4 sc 0.60 0.24 5 gir 0.56 0.35 6 pa 0.55 0.28 7 par3 0.43 0.16 8 ppr 0.38 0.14 9 dd 0.38 0.11 10 da 0.21 0.04 11
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Bluefin	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Nov 2006 Posts: 7489 Location: Florida	#2 Posted: 4/17/2012 8:05:38 AM translation?
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blairaj	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 969 Location:	#3 Posted: 4/17/2012 8:20:40 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Bluefin: translation? Blue - take a look at last week's thread "heritage discussion". I explain it and give at least one other example of this year's Masters
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AJLightning	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Nov 2008 Posts: 11254 Location: Texas	#4 Posted: 4/17/2012 9:24:42 AM Yes, last year was windy as hell. How did this formula work out last week? Did you do any tweaks or keep it the same?
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blairaj	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 969 Location:	#5 Posted: 4/17/2012 10:08:46 AM AJ - there is no formula here. At this point, I'm not using the results to try to do any type of prediction. All I'm doing now is finding out from past results which stats have mathematically proven to correlate with score, and to what degree. Using those results then to do mathematical predictions would be the next step, but considerably more complex and definitely more time consuming to get the right data to feed a predictive model
	Posted using a mobile device.quote

blairaj	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 969 Location:	#6 Posted: 4/17/2012 10:17:03 AM If anyone can tell me how to link a spreadsheet, I have plots for each state that would help a lot in explaining.
	Posted using a mobile device.quote
blairaj	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 969 Location:	#7 Posted: 4/17/2012 9:30:13 PM Once again, it looks like I won't get lines til tomorrow. I imagine some of these 130's will have moved up high enough that I won't play them. My leans for now: Texas Open Full Tourney Na-108 o Choi Holmes-106 o Choi Holmes-136 o Weekley Cauley-134 o Palmer Levin+102 o Rollins Walker-136 o Leishman Tringale-137 o Taylor
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blairaj	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 969 Location:	#8 Posted: 4/18/2012 11:07:56 PM If this works, I'll figure out how to create pdf's easier and post all the plots for each week. Here I just took two examples from the Master's. One that has a very high correlation and one that has a very low (even slightly negative) correlation. https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B4dfU4qGws3CVFlISWlfTmI2d2c
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blairaj	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 969 Location:	#9 Posted: 4/18/2012 11:08:39 PM example plots link
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blairaj	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Dec 2007 Posts: 969 Location:	#10 Posted: 4/18/2012 11:11:39 PM the link doesn't seem to work, but it does look like it'll work if you cut and paste it in the thick red line in the plot signifies the cut. Everyone above that line made the cut, everyone below the line missed the cut.
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