| Author: |
[General Discussion] Topic: Facebook IPO End of Day Value Estimates...Post Your Guess Here |
|
mellow_wolf |
 View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
Location: |
#51 Posted: 5/21/2012 7:56:22 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Blackchips:
whats so special about 100 shares? if i had 10 shares of apple today, i made 300. 100 shares of fb would require a $3 move to make that same 300. i don't see any difference. this is a common misnomer "oh geez i can't buy apple or google because its $600 a share!"
First of all, your use of the term misnomer is incorrect. It does not mean popular misconception(as you likely believe).
Secondly, there is absolutely nothing special about 100. Just a round number. Could be 50 or 5, the number is irrelevant. However, the ability of most people to own 10 shares of Apple($5600) or 10 shares of Google($6140) vs. 100 shares of FB($3300) is significant. It comes down to simple cost outlays. Economies of scale. Affordability is an issue for most folks(perhaps not you).
Plus, if FB, as a nascent company, does appreciate, its ROI will likely be far greater than AAPL or GOOG, who are firmly established. A wager I might be willing to place...if the price become right.
|
|
quote |
|
Blackchips |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 25
Location: |
#52 Posted: 5/21/2012 8:33:36 PM
ok bro.
also,can you explain which cost outlays/economies of scale you speak of?
|
|
quote |
|
Blackchips |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 25
Location: |
#53 Posted: 5/21/2012 8:43:36 PM
so you need to look at a stocks price to earnings ratio but errrm ill give you a pardon on that one with Facebook and their looming question over the E part of the equation. |
|
quote |
|
mellow_wolf |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
Location: |
#54 Posted: 5/21/2012 9:24:18 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Blackchips:
so before today, 100 shares of FB $3800 vs 10 shares of apple at $5300 is SIGNIFICANT?
ok bro.
also,can you explain which cost outlays/economies of scale you speak of?
I am applying my analogy to the average investor. For most people a $1500 difference is significant. Maybe not for you or I. I don't know your financial situation. $1500 is increasing your initial investment by 29%. If you believe in percentages, that is a large number for the average person making 40-60K per year. $1500 is 3% of income for a person making 50K. I think an average investor would find that significant. Not as trivial as you make it appear.
By cost outlays, I am referring to the above, investing an affordable amount, within your means. The average person does not have much money to invest, especially in this current economy. If you can afford AAPL or GOOG, then by all means, go for it. They are fantastic companies, no doubt. However, they are established and their prices are mature. Not to say AAPL and GOOG may not get to a $800-900-1000, but is it likely they will have those returns? They might, but not something I would invest in, at this point (especially in AAPL's case with Jobs' death). I think getting in now is getting in towards the peak, not the trough. Just my take.
FB is young and unproven, no question. It may very well come down further in price, and I hope it does. It could also crash, but I sincerely doubt that. They are set up for the long haul. For the average investor with limited financial resources, I think its potential is high. And its cost is affordable. That's what it comes down to, what can the average person afford with the greatest potential of return? Here's where we differ. Let me say this: If I had $2500 to invest and FB came down to $25 per share, I would rather buy 100 shares of FB than less than 5 shares of Apple. I am a long term investor and like that proposition. Just my opinion.
By economies of scale I simply mean more efficiency. |
|
quote |
|
Blackchips |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 25
Location: |
#55 Posted: 5/21/2012 9:31:36 PM
ill point out that the number (1500) has become $2200 overnight. 100 shares of Facebook is 3400 and 10 shares of apple is 5600. so to place a lot of faith in this 1500 is dangerous. i.e. your 29% argument just skyrocketed to about 40% in 1 trading day.
but this whole debate is moot if you just buy 8 shares of apple. the point of this debate is lost in your argument of the average investor clunking down $5600 vs $3200, i think. |
|
quote |
|
|
|
mellow_wolf |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
Location: |
#56 Posted: 5/21/2012 9:33:04 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Blackchips: also, the 'cheapness' or 'bargain-ability' for lack of a better word of a stock has nothing to do with its stock price. it does have to do with their PE ratio. so when people talk about how apple is so expensive, its really only a 14 P/E. they could do a 10-1 split and make it a $56 dollar stock and nothing would change.
so you need to look at a stocks price to earnings ratio but errrm ill give you a pardon on that one with Facebook and their looming question over the E part of the equation.
P/E, I agree, is an important metric to consider. However, it has no bearing on what the average investor can afford. That's my only point.
Buy Apple and be happy my friend. I will wager on FB, if its price comes down. We will see who has the greater ROI, over the next 5 years, with the least initial investment. |
|
quote |
|
mellow_wolf |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
Location: |
#57 Posted: 5/21/2012 9:36:34 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by Blackchips: hmm ok, not sold on your arguments. seems like you are trying to save face with your $1500 being significant argument, but only you know if thats the case.
ill point out that the number (1500) has become $2200 overnight. 100 shares of Facebook is 3400 and 10 shares of apple is 5600. so to place a lot of faith in this 1500 is dangerous. i.e. your 29% argument just skyrocketed to about 40% in 1 trading day.
but this whole debate is moot if you just buy 8 shares of apple. the point of this debate is lost in your argument of the average investor clunking down $5600 vs $3200, i think.
Not trying to save face. $1500 is a big number for most Americans. If my point about the average 50K income was not relevant to you, then I can't say much else.
|
|
quote |
|
Blackchips |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 25
Location: |
#58 Posted: 8/16/2012 11:10:12 AM facebook is a joke, no? when investing you want to ask yourself if the company has been around for 5 years and if they will likely be around for the next 5. good rule of thumb. |
|
quote |
|
HutchEmAll |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | |
Legend
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 34817
Location: Minnesota |
#59 Posted: 8/16/2012 12:05:43 PM |
|
quote |
|
bigvern1013 |
RSI  |
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 849
Location: Montana |
#60 Posted: 8/16/2012 12:45:26 PM
Check out the last part of the article that talks about the potential float later on this year.
|
|
quote |
|
bigvern1013 |
RSI |
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 849
Location: Montana |
#61 Posted: 8/16/2012 12:50:01 PM
One has to think that we are looking at the 12-15$ range by christmas.......with the rumors of integrating internet gambling into FB in europe and abroad, it will be worth buying at some point, but my guess is after thanksgiving at the earliest.
|
|
quote |
|
ZiggyDawg |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
Captain
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 5175
Location: New Jersey |
#62 Posted: 8/16/2012 2:52:29 PM
In any case ,most often the worse case scencario in these situations is the employees still make a lot of money since he owns it at a low price. It's just a matter of how much money he end up with and "what could have been or should have been ". 
|
|
quote |
|
mellow_wolf |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2643
Location: |
#63 Posted: 12/5/2012 12:11:35 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Blackchips: facebook is a joke, no? when investing you want to ask yourself if the company has been around for 5 years and if they will likely be around for the next 5. good rule of thumb.
Perhaps you should pause and contemplate before announcing the definite demise of a stock using tired cliches to proclaim your supposed prescience and superior insight.
If you bought FB at $18 a share, you would have made a nice 50%+ profit over just a few months. I did, did you? How's that Apple stock been treating you since your last post? Stuck in the mud, eh?
Who knows what the future may hold, but your premature and arrogant musings make me laugh.
|
|
quote |