MLB RPI SYSTEM 2012

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB RPI SYSTEM 2012
trychome PM trychome
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quote#2876
Posted: 9/25/2012 9:44:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rp-rt:

trychome,

 Thanks for posting the plays. I also have been playing the system since the official end of it. I have had 15 more winners since then. I always check my picks with what is on this forum to make sure I haven't missed something or something else is wrong. Thanks again.

And, of course, thanks to bettor2win for sharing this system. By the way, what can you tell us about the NHL system?


np. im just glad i'm not posting for no reason.  For anyone that still checks this thread, I haven't recorded it myself, but it seems like this month has had more A game wins than any other month this season.  Are there particular reasons why this system ended when it did?  is it because someone backtested it for the month of september and historically hasnt made money?

chalk up another A game win for ATL today!
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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quote#2877
Posted: 9/25/2012 11:39:40 PM
As far as I remembered. Last year was profitable as well but had many losses after August that's why the system isn't being played when September comes along and the juices are already high. Also I can see that this year, there are many more teams up for the wild card unlike last year when most teams are already lined up for post season. Not sure about this but that's what I remembered
trychome PM trychome
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quote#2878
Posted: 9/26/2012 12:19:01 AM
^the post season thing makes a lot of sense.  thats what i would have assumed. i guess im glad good luck was on my side this month seeing as i did no research and just went in like the degenerate that i am. haha. looks like theres only 1 more series left this month and im done. 
rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#2879
Posted: 9/26/2012 10:39:09 AM
And ATL wins with 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th. Wahooo!
trychome PM trychome
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quote#2880
Posted: 9/27/2012 9:14:59 PM
tomorrow

MIL A

possible

BAL A
ARI A

will check tomorrow morning. are you guys playing the last series? theres only 1 more after tomorrows series.
rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#2881
Posted: 9/28/2012 10:55:08 AM
MIL A - is the only play I see for today. MIL still have a very very very slim chance to make the playoffs which is a plus. I'm playing this series and probably any others that show up till the end of the season.
trychome PM trychome
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quote#2882
Posted: 9/28/2012 6:59:38 PM
yup checked it again this morning and now. MIL is the only play.  im also going to take it to the end of the season. fortune favors the bold!
trychome PM trychome
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quote#2883
Posted: 9/29/2012 1:25:01 AM
tomorrow 

MIL B
trychome PM trychome
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quote#2884
Posted: 9/30/2012 10:59:12 PM
tomorrow

NYY A
trychome PM trychome
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quote#2885
Posted: 10/1/2012 10:11:45 PM
one more A game win to close out the season!  thanks to b2w and everyone else that contributed.  see ya next season!
rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#2886
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:29:18 AM

Now that the season is over, I'll give you a basic recap of how my season went. I'm curious as to how my results compared to the official stats for the system.

I started the system plays on 4/30/12.

My system ending (9/1/12) results were 87-4

My system extended ending (10/1/12) results were 105-4

My four game "C" losses were; 5/2/12 NYM, 5/3/12 SFG, 5/30/12 LAD and 8/8/12 CIN.

My largest two plays of the season were; 8/8/12 LAD "C" game and 8/12/12/ PIT "C" game.

I have to admit that 8/8/12 was a nail biting day.

The season was an excellent positive. Thanks again bettor2win.

DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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quote#2887
Posted: 10/3/2012 4:10:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rp-rt:

Now that the season is over, I'll give you a basic recap of how my season went. I'm curious as to how my results compared to the official stats for the system.

I started the system plays on 4/30/12.

My system ending (9/1/12) results were 87-4

My system extended ending (10/1/12) results were 105-4

My four game "C" losses were; 5/2/12 NYM, 5/3/12 SFG, 5/30/12 LAD and 8/8/12 CIN.

My largest two plays of the season were; 8/8/12 LAD "C" game and 8/12/12/ PIT "C" game.

I have to admit that 8/8/12 was a nail biting day.

The season was an excellent positive. Thanks again bettor2win.

I am curious on how you bet the B and C games - how many units?  Did you bet to cover your losses? in the previous game(s)

Because 105 - 4 seems to not make much profit.

Example:

105 wins - regardless if they were A game, B game or C game wins - if you bet to cover yourt losses in the previous game(s) - it would yield 105 UNITS

4 loses - assuming you bet A,B,C and lost each game - and the odds are -200 on each bet.  If you bet 1 unit on A game and lost that's -2 UNITS, then you bet 3 UNITS on B game and lost, that's -6 UNITS, then you bet 9 UNITS on C game and lost that's -18 UNITS - for a total of -26 UNITS PER LOSS

So those 4 losses total -104 units.

Now the odds could have been less than -200 so give or take some units here or there.

Can you explain your betting strategy that made this profitable.

The way I see it - the official system can support 1 loss to make it profitable.

rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#2888
Posted: 10/3/2012 7:48:41 PM

DegenGamble,

Let me send you an example spreadsheet. It is way easier than explaining it.

akuwudikeeze PM akuwudikeeze
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quote#2889
Posted: 10/4/2012 3:17:39 PM
rp-rt, I had the same question on mind. Cos the numbers were not adding up. Please PM me the sample spreadsheet. I have also sent you a friend request.
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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quote#2890
Posted: 10/4/2012 5:04:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by rp-rt:

DegenGamble,

Let me send you an example spreadsheet. It is way easier than explaining it.

rp-rt - Friend Request sent - thanks

 

rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#2891
Posted: 10/4/2012 7:55:56 PM

DegenGamble,

    I sent you the detail in an email. I would have rather sent the actual spreadsheet but it doesn't look like I could do that. If you have any questions, let me know.

Pendo PM Pendo
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quote#2892
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:48:24 PM
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quote#2893
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:01:44 AM

rp-rt - Friend Request sent also, so as to garner detail-email please and thank you


bruin95 PM bruin95
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quote#2894
Posted: 10/5/2012 2:51:45 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

I am curious on how you bet the B and C games - how many units?  Did you bet to cover your losses? in the previous game(s)

Because 105 - 4 seems to not make much profit.

Example:

105 wins - regardless if they were A game, B game or C game wins - if you bet to cover yourt losses in the previous game(s) - it would yield 105 UNITS

4 loses - assuming you bet A,B,C and lost each game - and the odds are -200 on each bet.  If you bet 1 unit on A game and lost that's -2 UNITS, then you bet 3 UNITS on B game and lost, that's -6 UNITS, then you bet 9 UNITS on C game and lost that's -18 UNITS - for a total of -26 UNITS PER LOSS

So those 4 losses total -104 units.

Now the odds could have been less than -200 so give or take some units here or there.

Can you explain your betting strategy that made this profitable.

The way I see it - the official system can support 1 loss to make it profitable.


I looked back at these plays and used the closing lines in each of the games.  The total approximate units lost for the 4 losses was about 36.5 units.  That makes the profit for the system, if played all the way through, 68.5 units.  If you stopped in August, the profit was 50.5 units.   There were several games where the teams were underdogs or very small favorites.  The largest closing line was the C game involving the Dodgers at -160.  The other 11 games were considerably less than that.

Breakdown as follows:

NYM 7.75 units lost
SFG 9 units lost
LAD 11.5 units lost
CIN 8.25 units lost

If you waited until June to start, you only had one loss for the whole year.  Maybe something to consider for next season.  Give it that extra month for the RPI numbers to get stronger.
 
akuwudikeeze PM akuwudikeeze
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quote#2895
Posted: 10/5/2012 3:23:40 AM
DegenGamble I PM you.
rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#2896
Posted: 10/5/2012 10:30:12 AM
bruin95,
    Your math is impeccable. The results pretty much fits in with what bettor2win said about the win amount potential. You have to risk quite a bit of cash to garner, lets say, a 9K profit. Which is about what he said he averages each year. But profit is profit.
    I have been thinking the same thing about the start date. This was my first year so I started on 4/30/12 (one day early) because new series were starting that day. Else I would have had to wait until 5/3/12 or 5/4/12 to start. And you know how hard it is to sit on the sidelines when visions of profits are dancing in your head.Losing has a way of bringing you back to reality pretty quickly. Next year I will probably wait until, at least, the middle of May to start. I will spend the offseason studying the spreadsheet, MLB schedule and moneyline for any hidden indicators that might exist.
rp-rt PM rp-rt
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quote#2897
Posted: 10/12/2012 11:52:15 AM
Does anyone know the official numbers for this year or where they are posted? Does anyone have W/L numbers different than I had?
Pendo PM Pendo
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quote#2898
Posted: 10/14/2012 9:07:35 PM
Mid-May start gives more robust RPI #'s...
bettor2win PM bettor2win
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quote#2899
Posted: 10/28/2012 10:51:52 PM

The numbers stilled earned a good profit. A lot of "C" games though, which takes a RODEO style of Balls to maximize profits. I need NHL to start to make some LOOT. Stay tuned if NHL starts.

nghia1973 PM nghia1973
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quote#2900
Posted: 1/14/2013 8:53:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bettor2win:

The numbers stilled earned a good profit. A lot of "C" games though, which takes a RODEO style of Balls to maximize profits. I need NHL to start to make some LOOT. Stay tuned if NHL starts.



Are you going to post the NHL plays here or starts a new thread?
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