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[Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB RPI SYSTEM 2012 |
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bettor2win |
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#2401 Posted: 7/17/2012 10:32:22 PM |
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Waytogreen |
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#2402 Posted: 7/17/2012 10:55:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:
With all due respect - I disagree with some of this. B2W's system clearly states that teams must have no significant injuries. Votto is a significant injury. In addition, it also states both teams must not be going in opposite direction in the W/L column - so that implies streaks.
So I defer to B2W on the OFFICIAL plays - but we technically do not follow blindly even if there are injuries - there is a bit of semi-capping going on in the system.
The way I see it it a system is a generic form of capping - taking teams with certain criteria and placing a wager. Individual flat bets on games may create a small win but implementing a chase - increases that win%.
Injuries, streaks, etc are simply filters to prevent losses - the idea is to identify the correct criteria and incorporate into a system to increase Win % to a level that will overcome losses and vig.
Yeah, you're right, B2W's system definitely has those qualifiers in it and I jumped the gun a bit. I personally don't cap at all past the RPI spread, I just trust the numbers and let it fly!
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DegenGamble |
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#2403 Posted: 7/17/2012 10:57:35 PM |
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Cool_Money |
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#2404 Posted: 7/18/2012 12:05:47 AM
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bettor2win |
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#2405 Posted: 7/18/2012 12:24:11 AM |
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hansivonmueller |
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#2406 Posted: 7/18/2012 12:36:34 AM 
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glefkb01 |
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#2407 Posted: 7/18/2012 6:40:10 AM Still STINGY from the system earlier in the season... but I am not doing any better on my own going 0-8 in my last 8.
Hard to jump on the juice when your already down ya know. But it looks like it is time to jump on board again.
Need to have a big weekend... new series on Thursday? |
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HariBallz |
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#2408 Posted: 7/18/2012 8:49:14 AM |
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HariBallz |
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#2409 Posted: 7/18/2012 8:53:21 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01: Still STINGY from the system earlier in the season... but I am not doing any better on my own going 0-8 in my last 8.
Hard to jump on the juice when your already down ya know. But it looks like it is time to jump on board again.
Need to have a big weekend... new series on Thursday? I don't understand how you're STINGY?........haven't you only lost one series since the beginning of the season, LAD series? |
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glefkb01 |
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#2410 Posted: 7/18/2012 9:20:08 AM
early season tthis system was losing alot alot alot of a and b games....so much i couldnt afford to play the c games which is my fault. i would be down seven grand for season right now.
my fault is i am trying to play catch up i am not very disciplined and i am getting killed because of it |
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SoCal311 |
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#2411 Posted: 7/18/2012 9:59:35 AM   |
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CannedGoods |
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#2412 Posted: 7/18/2012 10:39:05 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01: to many early losses. if u played this system last year u would understand.
early season tthis system was losing alot alot alot of a and b games....so much i couldnt afford to play the c games which is my fault. i would be down seven grand for season right now.
my fault is i am trying to play catch up i am not very disciplined and i am getting killed because of it
As a wise man once told me; "95% of bettors don't make money over the long-run. Coincidentally, 95% of bettors pay more attention to who they are going to bet instead of how they are going to place their bets."
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glefkb01 |
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#2413 Posted: 7/18/2012 10:49:44 AM
the first step is admitting it.   |
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HariBallz |
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#2414 Posted: 7/18/2012 11:29:01 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01: to many early losses. if u played this system last year u would understand.
early season tthis system was losing alot alot alot of a and b games....so much i couldnt afford to play the c games which is my fault. i would be down seven grand for season right now.
my fault is i am trying to play catch up i am not very disciplined and i am getting killed because of it But if you had played the C games you would be ahead, right? |
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bettor2win |
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#2415 Posted: 7/19/2012 2:21:32 AM  |
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djknoell |
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#2416 Posted: 7/19/2012 2:41:31 AM |
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BookieCrusher88 |
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#2417 Posted: 7/19/2012 3:47:00 AM 
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CannedGoods |
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#2418 Posted: 7/19/2012 9:08:55 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by djknoell:
Will someone please explain the Martingale system to me?
Pick a unit size. Say $5. Bet 5 game A, if loses bet 10 game B, loses bet 20 (5 loss A + 10 loss B + $5 unit) game C. As long as you win one game you profit $5
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DegenGamble |
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#2419 Posted: 7/19/2012 10:57:10 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:
Pick a unit size. Say $5. Bet 5 game A, if loses bet 10 game B, loses bet 20 (5 loss A + 10 loss B + $5 unit) game C. As long as you win one game you profit $5
But keep in mind there is juice on every bet - so you need to bet enough so you recoup your losses and profit 1 unit.
So if Game A is -125
you bet 100 and lose -125
then your B bet would be 225, but say the odds for game B is -200 then you are risking 450 to win 225.
if game B loses - you are now down 125 + 450
If you were to chase the C game you now have to bet 675, and if odds were say -200 again - you are now risking 1350 to win 675.
That is why per B2W's money management rules that he outlined in the beginning of the thread - he bet's the C game to rcoup only some of his losses - he essentially bets the same as and A bet. You basically take a loss for the series - but you would save a horrendous beat to your bankroll on a C game loss.
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ALEKTRA |
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#2420 Posted: 7/19/2012 11:53:43 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88: Looks like no plays yet. NYY(39) @ OAK didn't quite made it to the list but I might jump on them unofficially on my own. They have a 4 game chase btw.
Good luck man! I'm going to play it too! |
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bettor2win |
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#2421 Posted: 7/19/2012 7:04:49 PM |
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DegenGamble |
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#2422 Posted: 7/19/2012 7:27:55 PM |
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bettor2win |
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#2423 Posted: 7/20/2012 1:07:24 AM |
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BookieCrusher88 |
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#2424 Posted: 7/20/2012 5:09:06 AM |
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bettor2win |
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#2425 Posted: 7/20/2012 9:00:10 AM |
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