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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB RPI SYSTEM 2012
bettor2win
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#2401
Posted: 7/17/2012 10:32:22 PM
That PIT game in col isn't over yet. Col could end up winning 21-9
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#2402
Posted: 7/17/2012 10:55:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:



With all due respect - I disagree with some of this.  B2W's system clearly states that teams must have no significant injuries.  Votto is a significant injury.  In addition, it also states both teams must not be going in opposite direction in the W/L column - so that implies streaks.

So I defer to B2W on the OFFICIAL plays - but we technically do not follow blindly even if there are injuries - there is a bit of semi-capping going on in the system.

The way I see it it a system is a generic form of capping - taking teams with certain criteria and placing a wager.  Individual flat bets on games may create a small win but implementing a chase - increases that win%.

Injuries, streaks, etc are simply filters to prevent losses - the idea is to identify the correct criteria and incorporate into a system to increase Win % to a level that will overcome losses and vig.

 


Yeah, you're right, B2W's system definitely has those qualifiers in it and I jumped the gun a bit.  I personally don't cap at all past the RPI spread, I just trust the numbers and let it fly!
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#2403
Posted: 7/17/2012 10:57:35 PM
glefkb01 - don't jinx us :( - I need this win :)
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#2404
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:05:47 AM
'B'ravo CIN and PIT
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bettor2win
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#2405
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:24:11 AM
then you're an idiot "waytogreen". BTW, both games won tonight. 
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hansivonmueller
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#2406
Posted: 7/18/2012 12:36:34 AM
Sweet, system keeps rolling regardless of whatever.
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glefkb01
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#2407
Posted: 7/18/2012 6:40:10 AM

Still STINGY from the system earlier in the season...    but I am not doing any better on my own going 0-8 in my last 8.

Hard to jump on the juice when your already down ya know.   But it looks like it is time to jump on board again.

Need to have a big weekend...  new series on Thursday?

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#2408
Posted: 7/18/2012 8:49:14 AM
Curious if this comes into play or not........example the NYY this week back to back series against teams TOR and OAK one was unofficial and the other official. If you won the A game could you keep betting it and start the series over till there were 3 games left in total from both the series combined?
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#2409
Posted: 7/18/2012 8:53:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Still STINGY from the system earlier in the season...    but I am not doing any better on my own going 0-8 in my last 8.

Hard to jump on the juice when your already down ya know.   But it looks like it is time to jump on board again.

Need to have a big weekend...  new series on Thursday?

I don't understand how you're STINGY?........haven't you only lost one series since the beginning of the season, LAD series? 
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glefkb01
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#2410
Posted: 7/18/2012 9:20:08 AM
to many early losses. if u played this system last year u would understand.    

early season tthis system was losing alot alot alot of a and b games....so much i couldnt afford to play the c games which is my fault.    i would be down seven grand for season right now.    

my fault is i am trying to play catch up   i am not very disciplined and i am getting killed because of it
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#2411
Posted: 7/18/2012 9:59:35 AM
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CannedGoods
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#2412
Posted: 7/18/2012 10:39:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

to many early losses. if u played this system last year u would understand.    

early season tthis system was losing alot alot alot of a and b games....so much i couldnt afford to play the c games which is my fault.    i would be down seven grand for season right now.    

my fault is i am trying to play catch up   i am not very disciplined and i am getting killed because of it


As a wise man once told me; "95% of bettors don't make money over the long-run.  Coincidentally, 95% of bettors pay more attention to who they are going to bet instead of how they are going to place their bets."


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glefkb01
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#2413
Posted: 7/18/2012 10:49:44 AM
thnx for the reflection....i know i have a problem.   

the first step is admitting it.   
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#2414
Posted: 7/18/2012 11:29:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

to many early losses. if u played this system last year u would understand.    

early season tthis system was losing alot alot alot of a and b games....so much i couldnt afford to play the c games which is my fault.    i would be down seven grand for season right now.    

my fault is i am trying to play catch up   i am not very disciplined and i am getting killed because of it
But if you had played the C games you would be ahead, right?
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bettor2win
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#2415
Posted: 7/19/2012 2:21:32 AM
That's true hairyballz!!!
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#2416
Posted: 7/19/2012 2:41:31 AM
Will someone please explain the Martingale system to me?
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#2417
Posted: 7/19/2012 3:47:00 AM
Looks like no plays yet. NYY(39) @ OAK didn't quite made it to the list but I might jump on them unofficially on my own. They have a 4 game chase btw.
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#2418
Posted: 7/19/2012 9:08:55 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by djknoell:

Will someone please explain the Martingale system to me?


Pick a unit size.  Say $5.  Bet 5 game A, if loses bet 10 game B, loses bet 20 (5 loss A + 10 loss B + $5 unit) game C.  As long as you win one game you profit $5
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#2419
Posted: 7/19/2012 10:57:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CannedGoods:



Pick a unit size.  Say $5.  Bet 5 game A, if loses bet 10 game B, loses bet 20 (5 loss A + 10 loss B + $5 unit) game C.  As long as you win one game you profit $5


But keep in mind there is juice on every bet - so you need to bet enough so you recoup your losses and profit 1 unit.

So if Game A is -125

you bet 100 and lose -125

then your B bet would be 225, but say the odds for game B is -200 then you are risking 450 to win 225.

if game B loses - you are now down 125 + 450

If you were to chase the C game you now have to bet 675, and if odds were say -200 again - you are now risking 1350 to win 675.

That is why per B2W's money management rules that he outlined in the beginning of the thread - he bet's the C game to rcoup only some of his losses - he essentially bets the same as and A bet.  You basically take a loss for the series - but you would save a horrendous beat to your bankroll on a C game loss.


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#2420
Posted: 7/19/2012 11:53:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

Looks like no plays yet. NYY(39) @ OAK didn't quite made it to the list but I might jump on them unofficially on my own. They have a 4 game chase btw.

Good luck man! I'm going to play it too! 
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bettor2win
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#2421
Posted: 7/19/2012 7:04:49 PM
NYY Looks good. Going to chase them vs oak. Unofficial, of course
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#2422
Posted: 7/19/2012 7:27:55 PM
Hope you hit it B2W - but i'm going to lay off game 1 and jump on game 2.
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bettor2win
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#2423
Posted: 7/20/2012 1:07:24 AM
Gd idea degen! Zoinks!!!
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#2424
Posted: 7/20/2012 5:09:06 AM
Looks like only 1 Potential play only. Mil @ CIN(36). Not sure about unofficials.
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bettor2win
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#2425
Posted: 7/20/2012 9:00:10 AM
Cin is the play.
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