MLB RPI SYSTEM 2012

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB RPI SYSTEM 2012
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#2676
Posted: 8/8/2012 6:33:28 PM

SCOTTY84

CIN (A) -125  (B) -220* (C) -600* = -1000ish

LAD (A) -180 (B) -510* (C) pending -240

 

YOU WOULD HAVE TO BET 4100 to break even!!! with both series

slc5610 PM slc5610
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quote#2677
Posted: 8/8/2012 6:52:40 PM
dammit part of me wants to roll my cincy losses into dodgers tonight. do we lose 2 c bets in a row?
scotty84 PM scotty84
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quote#2678
Posted: 8/8/2012 6:59:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glefkb01:

SCOTTY84

CIN (A) -125  (B) -220* (C) -600* = -1000ish

LAD (A) -180 (B) -510* (C) pending -240

 

YOU WOULD HAVE TO BET 4100 to break even!!! with both series



my betting units are only $50 and i won both game a's from washington so i have to bet almost 1400 in order to win $1975 ish. gonna be a big sweat for me to say the least
lapi7 PM lapi7
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quote#2679
Posted: 8/8/2012 7:03:57 PM
There is still a lot of baseball left in the season.
I, personally, would minimize my losses by implementing a labby line or two and recouping my losses slowly. Then I would wager larger units on the A games.
I don't believe that I "MUST" profit a unit for each and every series I play
If I lose the A games I use the upcoming B & C games to recover my losses.
Overall you should come out ahead for the season using this strategy.
slc5610 PM slc5610
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quote#2680
Posted: 8/8/2012 7:05:10 PM
explain the labby line
Hookemup PM Hookemup
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quote#2681
Posted: 8/8/2012 7:05:18 PM
Does anyone have the updated numbers? How many A's B's and C's there were so far? I know there were 2 losses. 
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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quote#2682
Posted: 8/8/2012 7:31:36 PM
darn.  Can't BELIEVE Cincy...if I could I'd cut Broxton's balls off and shove him down his friggin throat.
trychome PM trychome
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quote#2683
Posted: 8/8/2012 8:03:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 7pokershark7:

how have u done trychome this year betting with your style because I believe thats the way I would bet it too.

for most of the season, i was using non-aggressive labby lines.  because of all the A game losses, i lost a lot of money, so i recently switched over to martingale, but after todays cin loss, im not sure if i made the right choice.  
speedemon PM speedemon
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quote#2684
Posted: 8/8/2012 8:12:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slc5610:

dammit part of me wants to roll my cincy losses into dodgers tonight. do we lose 2 c bets in a row?


Accept the loss and save the rest of your bankroll. It's so easy to make it back.
glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#2685
Posted: 8/8/2012 8:48:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scotty84:



my betting units are only $50 and i won both game a's from washington so i have to bet almost 1400 in order to win $1975 ish. gonna be a big sweat for me to say the least

like i said....i would have to bet four grand for hundred dollar bets...ur half of that so u would have to bet two grand...

u know there are usually four sweeps every new series....baltimore is well on way to beating seattle.   cincy lost....i really think the dodgers win but it is foolish to play those odds
stickbit PM stickbit
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quote#2686
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:00:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by trychome:


for most of the season, i was using non-aggressive labby lines.  because of all the A game losses, i lost a lot of money, so i recently switched over to martingale, but after todays cin loss, im not sure if i made the right choice.  

trychome...can you give an example of what style labby you were running?  trying to understand how you you lost a lot? I run labby lines too. I see how maybe you didn't do that well with a games not hitting...but losing a lot? 
lapi7 PM lapi7
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quote#2687
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:01:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by slc5610:

explain the labby line

it's kinda difficult to explain in a few lines or a paragraph. It's basically a division and cancellation system...but here...I'll let Wikipedia do the talking...Hope this helps.

The Labouchère system, also called the cancellation system or split martingale, is a gambling strategy used in roulette. The user of such a strategy decides before playing how much money they want to win, and writes down a list of positive numbers that sum to the predetermined amount. With each bet, the player stakes an amount equal to the sum of the first and last numbers on the list. If only one number remains, that number is the amount of the stake. If bet is successful, the two amounts are removed from the list. If the bet is unsuccessful, the amount lost is appended to the end of the list. This process continues until either the list is completely crossed out, at which point the desired amount of money has been won, or until the player runs out of money to wager.[1]

The theory behind this strategy is that since the player is crossing two numbers off of the list (win) for every number added (loss) that the player can complete the list, (crossing out all numbers) thereby winning the desired amount even though the player does not need to win as much as expected for this to occur.

It should be mentioned that the Labouchère System is meant to be applied to even money Roulette propositions such as Even/Odd, Red/Black or 1-18/19-36. When any of these bets are made in the game of Roulette, a spin resulting in a, "0," or, "00," results in a loss, so even though the payout is even money, the odds are clearly not 50/50. The Labouchère System attempts to offset these odds.

If a player were to play any one of the above propositions, there are eighteen individual results which result in a win for that player and (for an American Roulette wheel) twenty individual results that result in a loss for that player. The player has an 18/38 chance of success betting any of the above propositions, which is around 47.37%.

Theoretically, because the player is cancelling out two numbers on the list for every win, and adding only one number for every loss, the player needs to have his proposition come at least 33.34% to eventually complete the list. For example, if the list starts with seven numbers and the player wins five times and loses three (62.5% winning percentage) the list is completed and the player wins the desired amount, if the list starts with seven numbers and the player wins 43,600 times and loses 87,193 times (33.34% winning percentage) the list completes and the player wins.

A formula to understand this is as follows:

     Where x = Number of Wins
     y = Number of Losses
     Z = Numbers Originally on the List

Cont. below



lapi7 PM lapi7
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quote#2688
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:01:44 PM

When

     ( y + z ) / 2 = X

The result is the list being completed.

Assuming a player bets nothing but black (red/black proposition) and black can be expected to hit 47.37% of the time, but the system only requires that it hit 33.34% of the time, it can be said that black only need hit approximately 70.38% of the time (33.34/47.37) it can generally be expected to in order for the system to prevail.

An obvious downfall to the system is bankroll, because the more losses sustained by the player, the greater the amount being bet on each turn (as well as the greater the amount lost overall) is. Consider the following list:

10 10 20 20 20 10 10

If a player were to bet black and lose four times in a row, the amounts bet would be: $20, $30, $40, and $50. By taking these four consecutive losses, the player has already lost $140 and is betting $60 more on the next bet. Consecutive losses, or an inordinate amount of losses to wins can also cause table limits to come into play.

Occasionally, a player following this system will come to a point where he can no longer make the next bet as demanded by the system due to table limits. One work-around for this problem is simply to move to a higher limit table, or a player can take the next number that should be bet, divide it by two and simply add it to the list twice. The problem with the latter option is that every time a player commits such a play, it will infinitesimally increase the percentage of spins a player must win to complete the system. The reason this is so is because the player is adding two numbers (which both will be crossed out in the event of wins) where only one loss was sustained.

To prove this, if a player were to play the Labouchère System the same way with the exception being that the player always added half of the wager lost to the bottom of the list twice for every wager lost where:

    x = Number of Wins
    y = Number of Losses
    Z = Numbers Originally on the List

When:

    y + (z/2) = x

The result is the list being completed.

The player would actually have to win in excess of 50% of the time (the actual percentage of wins necessary, given x and y, being dependent on z) in order to complete the list, or more than the player could actually be expected to win.

BigBautista91 PM BigBautista91
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quote#2689
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:21:16 PM
darn me sideways dodgers off to a great start. 
BigBautista91 PM BigBautista91
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quote#2690
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:32:30 PM
KEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEMP 
boycali01 PM boycali01
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quote#2691
Posted: 8/8/2012 10:50:54 PM
cin darn me up today. go lad. 
CannedGoods PM CannedGoods
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quote#2692
Posted: 8/8/2012 11:18:02 PM
lapi7 - What's better in your opinion?  I've always played a Martingale...curious if I should make the switch...
bettor2win PM bettor2win
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quote#2693
Posted: 8/8/2012 11:31:17 PM
Somebody give me a reach around because I am getting "A" fkd with this RPI system this year.  Freakin CIN loss and now LAD are tied! ZOINKS!!!! I just wanna play my strat-o-matic baseball........
scotty84 PM scotty84
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quote#2694
Posted: 8/9/2012 1:10:48 AM
thank you la dodgers for that win !!! i was sweating hard haha
trychome PM trychome
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quote#2695
Posted: 8/9/2012 4:38:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stickbit:


trychome...can you give an example of what style labby you were running?  trying to understand how you you lost a lot? I run labby lines too. I see how maybe you didn't do that well with a games not hitting...but losing a lot? 

I had separate lines for A, B, and C games.  it was non-aggressive so instead of adding the loss to the last number, i just tacked on the loss by adding a new number at the end of the line.  what ended up happening was that i couldnt cancel out the A game losses because they kept losing.  When it got to B and C games, i would only win a little back because they usually stayed on or near the base unit.  so while im losing hundreds of dollars on A games, i was only getting $10-20 for winning B and C games.  The few times i moved the losses over to the B game, they ended up losing. lol. bad timing i guess.  im down about 27 units at this point. 
BookieCrusher88 PM BookieCrusher88
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quote#2696
Posted: 8/9/2012 9:21:07 AM
I may save my BR and just ride in next year. I'm pretty much down to my starting BR with a few units lost. Seems like a rough year this year. Goodluck fellas!
DegenGamble PM DegenGamble
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quote#2697
Posted: 8/9/2012 11:27:17 AM

Who has the stones to bet CIN today - LOL?

According to the RPI spreadsheet BAL and CIN  are plays today.  personally - I like BAL but I don't have the balls to bet CIN.

glefkb01 PM glefkb01
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quote#2698
Posted: 8/9/2012 12:13:56 PM
i am chasing kc to win one against baltimore....and on paper cincy should crush the cubs....
Cool_Money PM Cool_Money
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quote#2699
Posted: 8/9/2012 12:38:28 PM
I think with this recent loss, the odds of getting another loss before the season ends is very close to zero. So, instead of being fearful I think it is best to be fearless for the last few weeks of the system. I'm strongly considering increasing my unit size to 6%-10% of my bankroll.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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quote#2700
Posted: 8/9/2012 12:46:22 PM

Sure the Cincy loss was brutal but if you have been betting a Martingale chase on each series you should be up for the year a decent amount. I started with $50 as a betting unit and upped that to $75 starting with the games on 6/25. Up $3200+ after LA's win last night. Of course, I have spent $3300 on Pepto due to all the big C bets!

I didn't follow B2W's betting on the C game strategy. I figured if a system only loses a couple times a year then betting the C game to make up losses plus 1 unit was the way to go.  

32-1 on $50 chases (some rounding to make the bets an even amount) $1599.75 in wins less $563.50 on LA loss ($1036.25 profit). 43-1 on $75 chases - $3233.49 in wins less $1051.0 on Cincy loss ($2181.99 profit).

 

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