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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: mlb divisional underdogs
jv040
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jv040
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#1
Posted: 3/31/2012 9:12:26 AM
mlb divisional underdogs

With this system you are looking for teams who won their previous game and are facing a team within their division. Because teams play so many more games against teams in their division, there is a greater chance that the underdog will win the game than if they were playing a team outside of their division. More times than not the team with the better starting pitcher on paper will be the team favored to win. The reason that you go against these pitchers is the fact that they have likely faced a given team within their division numerous times, and the more opposing players face a pitcher the more likely the hitters will eventually succeed. chase three times.three game series.



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bettor2win
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#2
Posted: 3/31/2012 9:45:05 AM

I've thought about this too JV.

Have you considered on betting AGAINST the Central divisions this year?  It's not an underdog system by any means but even Det struggled (played .500 ball) outside of their own division and now that Fielder and Pujols are gone from the NL central I don't see any really great teams from the "looks of things ( I do think DET is beter tho).  Of course, the look doesn't mean you will or will not be successful.  Central could win WS again like StL last year. Only run away team I see is DET.  I thought CIN could be a huge surprise until their closer got hurt/injury.
I'm still trying to figure out where to go with this. Any thoughts JV?

Also, did you back test a "reverse system" for my RPI? I thought you commented you did and came up with some filters. Maybe it was another system you were talking about. IDK. Straight up going against wouldn't work because of so many sweeps by fav's though.  That could work if we just had some filters and who was a play and what not.  

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jv040
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jv040
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#3
Posted: 3/31/2012 10:10:26 AM
I did cap another underdog system.  I started looking at how many plays a year it would produce. I came up with 15-20 plays a year and 1 0r 2 losses the last 3 years,per year.  I think its still profitable just not worth posting.

I was thinking about your rpi system and underdogs. do you have data from previous years that show how successful it would be to bet the   -1.5 on favorites between -105 and -140 and. I was thinking about the mlb plus money system maybe use the rpi some how with it. about underdogs too like if there higher on the rpi chart than favorite team.
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jv040
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#4
Posted: 3/31/2012 10:12:51 AM
I figured out ciscos underdog system I can post plays.
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bettor2win
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#5
Posted: 3/31/2012 10:26:37 AM

I tried the -1.5 plays at the beginning of last year and it was a big loser.  I only tracked due to some people thought it could work.  It did for about a week then it died abismally.  I think plays are posted but it's not worth your time, seriously.  I honestly believe it would have to be one of those 6 game chase things. I read Allan Moody a lot via email and especially when I was a new bettor. One thing He fully advised against was chasing on these huge system like 6 games (not that 3 games is great either). Heck IDK if he even endorses chases. But I understood his point.  So, to this day I ignore those long drawn out chases in which, from looking at the numbers, the -1.5 or +1.5 system would be. Plus, the +1.5 system is too much juice. I hate it BUT that's the system I have right now with my RPI - juice. 

Awesome your going to post cisco's plays. I will join along incase one day you are not at the computer for whatever reason. I believe I know the system, understand it. 

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bettor2win
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#6
Posted: 3/31/2012 10:36:30 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by jv040:

I did cap another underdog system.  I started looking at how many plays a year it would produce. I came up with 15-20 plays a year and 1 0r 2 losses the last 3 years,per year.  I think its still profitable just not worth posting.

I was thinking about your rpi system and underdogs. do you have data from previous years that show how successful it would be to bet the   -1.5 on favorites between -105 and -140 and. I was thinking about the mlb plus money system maybe use the rpi some how with it. about underdogs too like if there higher on the rpi chart than favorite team.

JV, sent you a friend request. Got a question concerning this dog system. Thanks!
B2W

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Ddubb_Steady send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Las Vegas Hotel and Casino |
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#7
Posted: 3/31/2012 12:30:44 PM
In-division road dogs is a strategy I've used in the past but only once per team and only in April to mid-May. Playing the RL+1.5 it went 30-0 in 2011. ML had 4 losses, based on a 4 game chase, if I remember correctly which would not end up being very profitable unless you hit some really big dogs.
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