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Author: [Investments] Topic: Terrible jobs report
wallstreetcappers send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 6/1/2012 10:42:34 AM
Just think if they actually released the real numbers. I am sure the BLS numbers are manipulated and massaged all the time.

Still no fear that I see, we are over 12k and should be down below 10k.

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JEFFMARKETCAP
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#2
Posted: 6/1/2012 1:35:41 PM
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#3
Posted: 6/1/2012 1:36:54 PM
Everyone saying we need QE3.  That will be a short term boost for the market but will only make our debt problem worse and won't solve anything. 
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#4
Posted: 6/3/2012 3:54:27 PM

QE3??? what da darn would that do in the real world?

Interest rates are already at rock bottom and still the banks won't lend money. Why would they,  to get back 3% or whatever?

The Fed needs to stop getting involved and trying to manipulate the markets. It hasn't worked so far!

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#5
Posted: 6/3/2012 3:59:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFMARKETCAP:

Everyone saying we need QE3.  That will be a short term boost for the market but will only make our debt problem worse and won't solve anything. 

I dont know.

The FED can hold onto their portfolio indefinitely, until past duration if they wanted to. So QE3 would keep bond rates low which are different than bank interest rates. 

The FED buying government bonds really helps the government, it keeps interest costs way down and makes a market for said bonds and puts a floor on the return for banks and funds.

So a bank can go and get FED money for literally no cost, go and leverage to buy government bonds earning a risk free return as long as the FED is keeping rates down, profiting both on the leveraged rate of return AND likely making a return on principal as rates go down the bonds previously bought go up in price.

I dont see how the FED can back out now or the whole thing collapses and I dont see that happening.
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#6
Posted: 6/5/2012 8:37:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:


I dont know.

The FED can hold onto their portfolio indefinitely, until past duration if they wanted to. So QE3 would keep bond rates low which are different than bank interest rates. 

The FED buying government bonds really helps the government, it keeps interest costs way down and makes a market for said bonds and puts a floor on the return for banks and funds.

So a bank can go and get FED money for literally no cost, go and leverage to buy government bonds earning a risk free return as long as the FED is keeping rates down, profiting both on the leveraged rate of return AND likely making a return on principal as rates go down the bonds previously bought go up in price.

I dont see how the FED can back out now or the whole thing collapses and I dont see that happening.


what data are you using to draw this conclusion? Everything i see points to the fact that the quantum easings actually do opposite their supposed intended result. They force rates upwards. Rates are already technically negative, if the stated rate of inflation is 2-3% and the 10yr is 1.5%, this makes for a negative rate of return. When the fed isn't buying gov debt(usd's), rates continue their spiral downward. SWhen they step in, they bump rates up a notch. The whole world is in high demand of usgov debt, no need for the fed to step in and lie to claim that they are keeping rates low,,,,,,,
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#7
Posted: 6/5/2012 10:52:09 AM
I think you are mistaken on what rates would be if the FED werent in the market.

The supply has been quite large the last few years, so do the math and to me rates are being suppressed by the FED both lowering the funds rate and buying agency product in the open market.

My comments were not about inflation adjusted rate of return, rather face value of interest rates and the effect it has on government borrowing costs.
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#8
Posted: 6/5/2012 2:46:16 PM

Yep, the Fed manipulates the interest rates trying to raise the stock market by increasing consumer spending is all. However with the low rates the banks would rather keep that cheap money so they are NOT lending anything to the little guy. As everyone has heard interest rates are low so re-fi or buy a home???  How the hell can you do that if the banks aren't lending even if you are lucky enough to have a job.

The Fed and banks really have a nice ponzi scheme going here.

Lots of BS with NO results so get ready for more BS with a QE3 or some other  BS scheme with another name!

 

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#9
Posted: 6/6/2012 7:36:40 PM
So they just revised the job numbers today and the market soars.     Yeah I believe them
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#10
Posted: 6/13/2012 2:33:11 PM

i wish i knew what the hell you guys were talking about sometimes

 

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#11
Posted: 6/13/2012 3:14:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jmilrod:

i wish i knew what the hell you guys were talking about sometimes

 


Read up in this forum, ask questions and you can learn.

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